Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Date: December 25th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Netflix

The NFL will get things started on Christmas Day at 1 o’clock in an NFC East matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders. Both of these squads have been somewhat underwhelming this year, and don’t really have much to play for down the stretch of the season. The Cowboys were very much in the playoff race a few weeks ago, but have dropped 3 straight, and are now 6-8-1. Dallas has been really good on offense all season, though, as they are 2nd in yards per game (393.1), along with being 5th in points per game (28.3). Defense is where they’ve really struggled, as they’re 30th in yards allowed per game (380.1), and 31st in points allowed per game (30.3). Washington has been plagued with key injuries all season and doesn’t have the spark they did last year. They enter this one with a measly 4-11 record. The Commanders have had issues on both sides of the ball; offensively they’re just 20th in yards per game (321.1), and 24th in points per game (20.6). Defensively they’ve been arguably worse at 31st in yards allowed per game (382.7), along with being 27th in points allowed per game (26.9). This will likely be an offense-heavy affair, with both defenses having major issues of late.

Embed from Getty Images

Weather

The weather in Landover, MD won’t be too bad, as we are looking at temperatures in the low to mid 50s. It looks like it will be overcast with only a 20% chance of rain, and winds averaging 7 mph, with gusts up to 8 mph.

Betting Overview

When the betting markets opened for this game, we saw Washington as 5.5-point favorites, but now things have completely flipped, with the Cowboys sitting as 7-to-7.5-point favorites. We’ve obviously seen movement on the moneyline in this same direction, as Dallas is now at -350 (from +180), while Washington is at +300 (from -218). The over/under has seen a big jump from 47.5 to 50.5 or 51, depending on the sportsbook.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching battle in this one actually favors the Commanders, though there’s only so much they can do without the necessary pieces. Their lackluster season does fall on them a little, but they’ve shown they can be effective in previous years, while the Cowboys’ staff is still relatively new.

OLs vs. DLs: Up front, the Cowboys have been superior on both sides of the ball, which is a big reason why they’re heavy favorites in this one on the road. They will be able to get push on both sides, which will make things easier for everyone around them.

QBs: With Marcus Mariota’s status in question, we don’t really know who we’ll see at quarterback. Regardless, if it’s Mariota or Josh Johnson, Dak Prescott will have the clear edge in this one.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: You could argue either side for the offensive portion of this battle, but where the Commanders have the advantage, here is in the off-ball linebacker department. With veteran Bobby Wagner at middle linebacker and aggressive Frankie Luvu alongside him, these guys can make a huge impact on a game.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both secondaries have been really bad this season, and both teams have strong receiver groups. There’s been a little more consistency for the Cowboys in the receiver room, giving them the edge here, but both teams will have receivers running free.

Betting Trends

Washington has only taken 3 of the last 10 games against the Cowboys and has only managed to cover in 2 of the last 10. When looking at the totals in these matchups, the over has been slightly more favorable, hitting in 6 of 10. Earlier this season, the Cowboys won, covered, and the over hit.

Dallas is currently a 7-8 ATS team, with a 3-4 record on the road, a 1-2 record as an away favorite, and a 3-1 record in the division. Totals have heavily favored the over, hitting in 10 of the 15 games, including 5 of 7 on the road, 2 of 3 as an away favorite, and splitting 2 apiece in division games.

Washington has been really poor ATS this year at 5-10. They are just 3-4 at home, with a 1-3 record as a home underdog, and a 2-2 record in the division. Looking at over/unders, the over has been slightly more favorable, hitting in 8 of 15 games, including 5 of 7 at home, all 4 games as a home underdog, and 3 of 4 in the division.

Final Thoughts

With a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Commanders in this one, they’re a tough team to back. I don’t see the Cowboys losing this game, though I’m not overly confident in them covering the spread. As for the total, I would lean towards the over, given how poor both defenses have been this season, even if the Commanders are without Mariota.