Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins

Date: December 28th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

This Sunday presents a make-or-break opportunity for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as they travel a few miles southeast to take on the Miami Dolphins. Both teams have struggled in recent weeks, but Miami isn’t playing for anything at this point in the season. Tampa has now lost three straight, dropping them below .500 at 7-8, but if they win out, they can still take the NFC South. Offensively, they’ve been a little below average, ranking 23rd in yards per game (315.3) and 17th in points per game (23.1). On the defensive side of the ball, they’ve been even worse, sitting 23rd in yards allowed per game (343.3), along with 24th in points allowed per game (25.1).

Miami comes into this matchup as losers of two straight and sits at 6-9 on the season. Offensively, they rank 24th in yards per game (308.9), paired with being 22nd in points per game (21.1). Defensively, they’ve been fairly similar, ranking 20th in yards allowed per game (339.5) and 22nd in points allowed per game (24.6). You would expect Tampa to be up for this game, given they still have a path to the playoffs and control their own destiny. However, it’s hard to see them pulling through at this moment, considering how they’ve played over the past few weeks.

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Weather

Weather will not be an issue in this one, with temperatures in the high 70s throughout and a 0% chance of precipitation. Winds will average around 7 mph, with gusts only reaching 8 mph.

Betting Overview

The Buccaneers opened as 1.5-point favorites, but as the season has progressed, they now find themselves favored by 5.5. Tampa is currently -250 (from -120) on the moneyline, while Miami sits at +225 (from even odds). The total has dipped from the opening number of 47.5 down to 44.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: While this coaching matchup is still fairly clear-cut, it isn’t as lopsided as it appeared in the middle of the season. I’d still give the edge to Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers’ staff, though they’ll need to find a way to get this team back in the win column this week.

OLs vs. DLs: The battle in the trenches is actually quite even. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has struggled at times, while Miami’s defensive line has also underperformed. On the other side, the Dolphins have one of the better offensive lines in the league, while Tampa’s defensive line is slightly above average. Overall, this matchup leans narrowly toward Miami, but the margin is thin.

QBs: With rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers set to make just his second career start, this comparison is fairly straightforward and clearly favors Baker Mayfield.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Miami has the edge in this area, though neither team has been particularly strong at linebacker. De’Von Achane has been one of the league’s more dynamic running backs this season and has the ability to be a true difference-maker.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Much like the linebacker matchup, both teams have had major issues in the secondary. While Miami’s secondary grades out slightly better, Tampa Bay’s receiving corps is the stronger unit, giving the Buccaneers the advantage on the outside.

Betting Trends

Tampa Bay has struggled against the spread this season, posting a 5–10 ATS record, along with a 4–4 mark on the road, a 1–1 record as an away favorite, and a 1–3 record in non-conference games. Totals in Buccaneers games have leaned slightly toward the over, hitting in 8 of 15 overall. On the road, however, the under has been more favorable, cashing in 6 of 8 games, including both contests as an away favorite. In non-conference play, the over has hit in 3 of 4 games.

Miami enters this matchup with a 7–8 ATS record, including a 3–4 mark at home, a 2–2 record as a home underdog, and a 2–2 record in non-conference games. Totals have favored the over in Dolphins games as well, hitting in 8 of 15 overall, with 4 of 7 at home. As a home underdog, totals have split evenly at 2–2. In non-conference games, totals have gone 1–2–1.

Final Thoughts

With so much riding on this game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it will be interesting to see which version of this team shows up. It is a major advantage that they are facing a quarterback making just his second career start in Quinn Ewers. For that reason, I believe the Buccaneers will be able to cover the number here, and I also like the over in this matchup.