Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date: January 3rd at 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

With no Thursday Night Football this week, all eyes will be on the NFC South title matchup in Tampa between the Panthers and Buccaneers. While the Buccaneers will still need some help even with a win, this being the first game of the week makes it a must-win scenario for both teams.

The Panthers had an opportunity to clinch the division last week with a win over Seattle, especially after Tampa Bay’s loss, but they came up short. Still, they remain in full control of their destiny—win and they’re in. That loss dropped Carolina back to .500 at 8–8. Their offensive metrics have slipped, as they now rank 27th in both yards per game (296.3) and points per game (18.6). Defensively, they’ve been slightly above league average, ranking 15th in yards allowed per game (326.6) and 16th in points allowed per game (22.8).

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has struggled mightily down the stretch, losing four straight games and falling to 7–9 on the season. They’ll need a win here along with a Saints victory over the Falcons to keep their playoff hopes alive. Statistically, they’ve been below average on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they rank 22nd in yards per game (319.3) and 18th in points per game (22.8). On defense, they’re 20th in yards allowed per game (340.5) and 23rd in points allowed per game (24.8).

This should be a fascinating matchup on Saturday afternoon, especially given the inconsistency both teams have shown throughout the season. With so much at stake, it’s hard to know exactly which version of either team will show up.

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Weather

We’re looking at temperatures in the low to mid 70s when this game kicks off in Tampa, with temperatures dipping into the 60s as the game progresses. Wind and precipitation could be factors, as winds are expected to average around 12 mph, with gusts reaching up to 22 mph. There is also a 70% chance of rain, which could impact both the passing and kicking games.

Betting Overview

The line has narrowed significantly from the opening number of Tampa Bay -7, as the Bucs are now favored by just 2.5 to 3 points, depending on the sportsbook. On the moneyline, the Panthers have moved to +125 (from +240), while Tampa Bay now sits at -142 (from -298). The total has also dipped slightly, falling from 46.5 to the 43.5–44 range.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: As we’ve seen all season, Carolina’s coaching staff has consistently done more with less compared to Tampa Bay. The Panthers’ offensive line has played a major role in their success, but strong scheming has been just as important. Both teams have struggled at times to close out games, but Carolina has had a better track record in close contests, especially recently. Overall, the coaching edge slightly favors the Panthers.

OLs vs. DLs: We have fairly comparable matchups up front. Carolina boasts a strong offensive line, while Tampa has an above-average defensive line, giving a slight edge to the Panthers in that battle. On the other side, Tampa’s offensive line has been atrocious, but Carolina’s defensive line has also struggled, making that matchup fairly even. Overall, Carolina holds a small advantage due to their offensive line.

QBs: Neither quarterback has been particularly sharp of late, and Baker Mayfield has been banged up for much of the second half of the season. That said, Mayfield is still the better quarterback in this matchup.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Largely due to their poor offensive line, the Buccaneers have lacked a consistent rushing attack. However, they hold an edge when comparing their running backs and tight ends against Carolina’s linebackers and tight end group. Tampa has a slight advantage here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both secondaries have struggled compared to the rest of the league, though Carolina’s unit has played better recently and has been effective at generating turnovers. Tampa clearly has the stronger receiving corps, but given recent form, this matchup feels fairly even overall.

Betting Trends

Tampa Bay has had success in recent matchups between these franchises, winning 8 of the last 10 and covering 6 of those games. Totals have leaned toward the over in that span, hitting 6 times. In their most recent meeting a few weeks ago, Carolina won outright, covered the spread, and the game went over the total.

The Panthers enter this matchup at 9-7 ATS, with a 4-4 record on the road, a 3-3 mark as a road underdog, and a 3-2 record in division games. Totals have favored the under, hitting in 9 of 16 games, including 5 of 8 on the road and 4 of 5 in division play.

Tampa Bay comes in at just 5-11 ATS, including a brutal 1-6 record at home and 1-5 as a home favorite. Totals have split evenly at 8-8 overall, though the over has hit in all six home games this season and 5 of 6 games as a home favorite. In division play, however, the under has hit in 3 of 5.

Final Thoughts

This matchup essentially serves as an early playoff game, with both teams leaving everything on the field. Given Tampa Bay’s recent form, it’s hard to see them having what it takes to come out on top here. I believe the Panthers will be able to win this game outright, largely due to their ability to control the line of scrimmage. As for the total, this is a matchup I would stay away from.