Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Date: January 4th at 8:20 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC

In a game with the AFC North title on the line, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet with everything at stake. Unlike the complicated scenarios unfolding in the NFC South, this one is straightforward: both teams control their own destiny. Win, and you’re in.

Baltimore has endured a rocky season plagued by key injuries yet still finds itself in position to claim the division at 8–8. Offensively, the Ravens haven’t been as dominant as in years past, ranking 16th in yards per game (330.5) and 11th in points per game (25.0). Defensively, they’ve had their share of issues, sitting 25th in yards allowed per game (352.3) and 18th in points allowed per game (23.3). For Baltimore, the path to success is clear: lean on Derrick Henry in the run game and continue to give Lamar Jackson flexibility and options in the passing attack.

Pittsburgh had a prime opportunity to clinch the division last week in Cleveland but came up short in a 13–6 loss. The Steelers enter this matchup at 9–7. Offensively, they rank 26th in yards per game (301.3) but have been more efficient in scoring, coming in 15th in points per game (23.2). Defensively, they’ve also underperformed relative to expectations, ranking 28th in yards allowed per game (357.9) and 16th in points allowed per game (22.7). The Steelers will need another strong performance from veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers to keep pace in this matchup, though that task becomes more difficult without DK Metcalf, who will miss his second straight game due to suspension.

All signs point to a hard-fought, physical battle, making this a fitting Sunday Night Football matchup to close out the regular season.

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Weather

Conditions in Pittsburgh shouldn’t be much of a factor outside of the cold. Temperatures are expected to remain in the mid-20s throughout the game, with no precipitation in the forecast. Winds should also be minimal, averaging around 5 mph with gusts up to 6 mph.

Betting Overview

This matchup opened with Baltimore as 4.5-point favorites, but the line has since moved slightly toward Pittsburgh, with the Ravens now laying 3.5 points. Moneyline movement has been modest, as Baltimore sits at -185 (from -198), while Pittsburgh is priced at +162 (from +164). The total has also ticked down, dropping from an opening number of 43.5 to 41.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: John Harbaugh has once again shown why he’s regarded as one of the top coaches in the NFL. After opening the season 1–5, the Ravens have battled back to reach this win-and-in spot at 8–8. That turnaround hasn’t come without criticism, but Harbaugh’s ability to steady the ship deserves credit. On the other sideline, there have been even larger question marks surrounding the Pittsburgh staff, particularly head coach Mike Tomlin. While Tomlin has been remarkably consistent year after year, the franchise hasn’t taken a meaningful step forward. The coaching edge in this matchup slightly favors Baltimore.

OLs vs. DLs: Pittsburgh boasts one of the stronger trench units in the league on both sides of the ball. They’ll also benefit from the return of T.J. Watt, which is huge when it comes to pressuring the elusive Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line is solid, but their defensive front has struggled for much of the season, giving Pittsburgh the overall edge in the trenches.

QBs: This is a fascinating quarterback matchup. Lamar Jackson has battled injuries throughout the season and likely won’t be 100 percent, but he is expected to start. Aaron Rodgers has put together a strong season, especially considering his age. Even so, at this stage of their careers, I’d still take a less-than-healthy Lamar over Rodgers due to his dual-threat ability.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Pittsburgh has more depth at running back, but when the opposing back is Derrick Henry, the advantage is fairly obvious. The tight end matchup favors Pittsburgh, while the off-ball linebacker groups are relatively even, with a slight edge leaning toward Baltimore.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both secondaries have struggled defending the pass this season. With the Steelers set to be without DK Metcalf, the wide receiver advantage in this matchup shifts toward Baltimore.

Betting Trends

The Steelers have had a lot of success against the Ravens over the last 10 meetings, winning 7 of those games and covering the spread in 7 as well. Totals in this rivalry have heavily favored the under, hitting in 8 of the last 10 matchups. Earlier this season in Baltimore, Pittsburgh came away with a 27–22 win, covering the spread, while the over cashed in that contest.

Baltimore enters this game with a 6–10 ATS record, including a 4–3 mark on the road, a 3–3 record as a road favorite, and a 2–3 record in division games. Totals have leaned toward the over this season, hitting in 10 of 16 games, including 4 of 7 on the road, splitting 3–3 as a road favorite, and cashing in 3 of 5 divisional matchups.

Pittsburgh is an even 8–8 ATS on the year, with a 4–3 record at home, a 1–2 mark as a home underdog, and a 3–2 record within the division. Totals have gone 8–7–1 overall, with the under being the stronger trend at home, hitting in 4 of 7 games, 2 of 3 as a home underdog, and 3 of 5 divisional contests.

Final Thoughts

One of the most intriguing aspects of any Ravens–Steelers matchup is how well these two head coaches know each other after nearly two decades of battles in the AFC North. Both teams will be missing key contributors, which will undoubtedly factor into how this game plays out. Still, I think Baltimore will be too much in this spot, with Lamar Jackson returning and Pittsburgh set to be without DK Metcalf. I expect the Ravens to win and cover, and I lean toward the over in this matchup.