Divisional Round

The Divisional Round is set for the NFC, but we have to wait another day to find out about the AFC. That’s because the Texans vs. Steelers Monday Night Football game wraps up the Wild Card Weekend. You can check out Zachary Cohen’s Texans vs. Steelers preview here.

Once that game is in the books, I will update the Divisional Round Opening Line Report, but since we know the NFC side of things, we can go ahead and dig into those matchups, as we have the 49ers vs. Seahawks and Rams vs. Bears on the slate. In the AFC, we know that we have Bills vs. Broncos and then Patriots vs. the winner of Texans vs. Steelers.

It was a dramatic Wild Card Weekend that trimmed the field from 14 down to 8. Teams leading at the two-minute warning started 0-3 in the Wild Card Round before the 49ers secured their win over the Eagles with a defensive stand in the red zone. Underdogs got off to a 4-0 start against the spread, including the Bears and 49ers upsets, where the line went against both of them. The Patriots got one home for the favorites in Sunday’s nightcap, but there was a good bit of barking on Wild Card Weekend.

Is more of the same in store during the Divisional Round?

Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.

Here is the Divisional Round NFL Betting Odds Report:

Odds as of Sunday, January 11 at 8:25 p.m. PT

Bills (-1.5, 46.5) at Broncos

Saturday, Jan. 17, TBD p.m. ET

For a team that secured the No. 1 seed and the AFC’s lone Wild Card Weekend bye to just be just a 1.5-point favorite against a hobbled and beaten up Josh Allen sure says a lot about the conference as a whole. Many came into this postseason noting how Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson wouldn’t be standing in the way of Allen and his Bills.

Well, instead, it will be arguably the NFL’s top defense that does here in the second round in the Mile High City. We saw this line open Broncos -1.5, dance to Bills -1.5 for a very brief moment (and maybe even just a software error), and then come back to Denver -1.5 at DraftKings as the Patriots were putting the finishing touches on their win over the Chargers. The moneyline did go to -110 both ways, with +102 on the -1.5 for Denver and -122 on the +1.5 for Buffalo as well. At times, Buffalo was even the moneyline favorite at -112 to Denver’s -108, with the Bills -1.5 and Broncos +1.5. It was a seesaw battle for the favorite role on Sunday evening.

It is rather interesting that this line is listed as a similar type of coin flip to what we saw with the Jaguars and Bills during Wild Card Weekend. The Bills won, but they were outgained by 1.1 yards per play, as the Jags missed a field goal and gave up a short field goal drive off of a Trevor Lawrence interception.

Liam Coen going away from the run for long stretches was a big surprise, as the Jaguars racked up 6.7 yards per carry and outgained Buffalo by 3.7 yards per rush in that department. But, Lawrence was just 18-of-30 and you have to assume that Sean Payton was watching very, very closely to how that game played out.

Buffalo and Denver did not play during the regular season and a lot has been made of the Bills’ weak schedule by comparison to a lot of other teams. Is that something that bettors will hold against them in this spot or is this going to be viewed as Josh Allen vs. Bo Nix and have many siding with the known commodity and perennial MVP candidate?

Frankly, this game has a good chance of simply pinballing back and forth over the course of the week. Models and handicapping that prefer offense to defense will like the Bills. Models that prefer defense to offense will like the Broncos. Some will look at things more qualitatively and think about how the Bills are in this situation for the sixth straight season and are just 2-3 in those five games with a head coach in Sean McDermott that isn’t universally respected by the investment community.

One good thing is that the advance weather forecast for Denver looks outstanding for this weekend, so the quarterbacks shouldn’t have much to worry about. We’ll see what that means for the total, especially with Denver giving up 34 to Jacksonville and 26 to Green Bay late in the season.

Bills-Broncos Matchup (Coming soon)

49ers at Seahawks (-7, 47.5)

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Saturday, Jan. 17, TBD p.m. ET

A rematch of the Week 18 game that decided the NFC West and also the team that got the bye seems rather fitting here, as the 49ers upset the Eagles and will hit the road for a much shorter trip in advance of this weekend. The NFL Playoffs do re-seed for the Divisional Round, which is why the No. 6 49ers are in this game and the No. 5 Rams are in Chicago, unlike how a traditional bracket format would have played out.

I am VERY interested to see where this line goes. Seattle was steamed into a clear road favorite against the 49ers in Week 18. San Francisco got bet against again this past week, as their line against the Eagles touched 6 at one point, but mostly settled in at 5.5. Based on how the Seahawks have been viewed all season, for this line to have only been a point higher than the game that the 49ers won to get to this point felt a touch surprising. And the line moved to 7 by the late evening.

Of course, these two teams know each other extremely well and will be playing for the second time in three weeks. Seattle was a much different team back in Week 1 when the 49ers won 17-13 at Lumen Field, as the new-look Seahawks were still trying to work things out with Sam Darnold and OC Klink Kubiak.

Regardless of what had happened, because the Bears came from behind to beat the Packers, the Seahawks were going to face a division opponent. That may be a good thing, given that Kubiak and DC Aden Durde have been fielding a ton of interest for all of the head coach openings around the league. At least the prep is a bit easier facing a familiar foe.

Shortly after open, we did see the Seahawks with -115 on that 6.5 number at DraftKings, so that served as an indicator of what was to come. But, also, NFL bettors, especially the masses, can fall victim to recency bias and the 49ers winning as a sizable underdog while the Seahawks didn’t play could lead to San Francisco shekels as this line matures.

49ers-Seahawks Matchup (Coming soon)

Rams (-4.5, 51.5) at Bears

Sunday, Jan. 18, TBD p.m. ET

The Bears defended their Soldier Field advantage against the hated Packers, but it wasn’t easy. Chicago won 31-27 on the strength of a 25-point fourth quarter, as they didn’t score their first TD until there was about 10 minutes left in the game. It was sort of a microcosm of Chicago’s season as a whole. They went 11-6 with an Expected Win-Loss record of 9.1-7.9 based on their point differential. They won a ton of one-score games and seemed to get all the breaks and bounces at just the right times.

And that’s a big reason why they were a home underdog to the Packers. They’re a home underdog yet again, though against a much stronger team and a coaching staff that is decidedly better at finishing off close games, and especially those with the lead. The Rams did have their share of problems against the Panthers and actually needed a seven-play, 71-yard drive to win 34-31 after giving up the go-ahead score with 2:39 left.

Based on the early number here, the oddsmakers are not holding that performance against the Rams, even though they came nowhere close to covering as a double-digit favorite in Charlotte. They’ve got another long trip here with a two time zone trek to the Windy City and will have to play outside in the elements once again. As of now, it looks downright frigid with a chance of snow and some 20 mph wind gusts.

Obviously weather forecasts are not overly reliable this far in advance, but frigid, snow, and wind basically sums up Chicago in January, so it’s hardly a stretch.

Unlike last week, the Rams have not yet played the Bears, so both teams had rematches in the Wild Card Round, but will not here. Who does that favor? Well, I’d argue the Rams just because Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are far more proven commodities, but time will tell and four of the Rams’ five losses to this point were on the road and three of them outdoors.

It was hard for the oddsmakers to get a lot of Bears love last week and that position looked correct for about three quarters. How will bettors attack this one after an underwhelming win for the Rams and an upset home triumph for the Bears? This strikes me as sort of a new-school vs. old-school handicap, in that the stats and metrics absolutely love the Rams, whereas the Bears and Ben Johnson just have a knack for pulling games out and adjusting well on the fly.

Rams-Bears Matchup (Coming soon)

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