Game: Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Date: January 12th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

Rounding out Wild Card Weekend is the final Monday Night Football game of the season, featuring an AFC showdown between the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Houston enters the playoffs red hot, looking to carry that momentum into the postseason. Earlier in the year, the Texans sat at 3–5 and appeared to be struggling, but they rattled off nine straight wins to finish 12–5 and secure this Wild Card matchup. Offensively, Houston ranks 17th in yards per game (327) and 13th in points per game (23.8). Defensively, they have been elite, ranking second in both yards allowed (279.1 per game) and points allowed (17.4 per game).

Pittsburgh has been steady for much of the season, despite a few bumps along the way. The Steelers clinched the AFC North with a win over the Ravens last week and enter the playoffs at 10–7. Offensively, they rank 25th in yards per game (306.5) and 15th in points per game (23.4). Defensively, they have posted similar rankings, sitting 26th in yards allowed per game (358) and 16th in points allowed per game (22.8). While Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been dominant statistically this season, this matchup still projects as a tightly contested, defense-driven game against Houston.

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Weather 

It will be a cold night in Pittsburgh, with temperatures expected to remain in the low 30s throughout the game. There is no precipitation in the forecast, though wind could play a minor role, averaging around 7 mph with gusts up to 23 mph.

Betting Overview

This game opened with Houston favored by 3.5 points, but the line has ticked slightly toward Pittsburgh and now sits at Texans -3. Similar movement has occurred on the moneyline, with Houston shifting from -175 to -155, while Pittsburgh has moved from +145 to +136. The total has largely held steady at 38.5 across most sportsbooks, with a few dipping it down to 38.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans hold the coaching edge in this matchup, especially after battling back from a 3–5 start. Ryans has this Texans defense operating like a well-oiled machine and arguably the best defensive unit in the league. Pittsburgh, under Mike Tomlin, has struggled to find consistency on the offensive side of the ball, and the defense has also underperformed relative to expectations this season.

OLs vs. DLs: Both teams feature strong defensive lines, and each offensive line stands out—albeit for very different reasons. Houston’s offensive line has struggled throughout the season, often putting C.J. Stroud under pressure. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, boasts one of the league’s better offensive lines, giving the Steelers a clear edge in the trenches.

QBs: Both quarterbacks have experienced ups and downs this season, but there is a clear edge at the position. Aaron Rodgers is a seasoned veteran who can still make every throw, while C.J. Stroud has regressed slightly from his rookie campaign a few seasons ago. That experience gives Rodgers the advantage here.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is a fairly even matchup, with the offensive side slightly favoring Pittsburgh and the defensive side favoring Houston. It will be difficult for the Steelers to consistently attack the middle of the field against this Texans defense, which gives Houston the overall edge in this area.

WRs vs. Secondaries: While neither receiving corps is particularly deep, Houston holds a significant advantage in the secondary. The Texans boast one of the toughest pass defenses in the league, which should present serious challenges for Aaron Rodgers in this matchup.

Betting Trends

Houston enters this game 9–8 ATS, with a 4–4 record on the road, a 1–1 mark as an away favorite, and a 7–5 record in conference play. Totals have leaned under in Texans games, hitting in 10 of 17 overall, including 6 of 8 on the road, a split as a road favorite, and 8 of 12 in conference matchups.

Pittsburgh is also 9–8 ATS this season, posting a 5–3 record at home, a 2–2 mark as a home underdog, and a 7–5 record in conference play. Totals have slightly favored the over in Steelers games, hitting in 9 of 17. At home, however, the under has hit in 4 of 8 games, with one push. In AFC matchups, the under has cashed in 7 of 12 games.

Final Thoughts

This shapes up as a strong way to close out the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. Pittsburgh’s defensive line should present major challenges for C.J. Stroud, while Houston’s defense will keep the Texans firmly in the game. Ultimately, I think the Steelers do enough to cover the spread. With the total set very low, I still expect a defensive battle that pushes this game under the number.