Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Stanford Cardinal

Date: January 14th at 9:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

It still feels strange to say that a North Carolina school is playing a conference game in California, but that’s exactly what we have on Wednesday night as the UNC Tar Heels travel west to take on the Stanford Cardinal. UNC bounced back into the win column on Saturday with a victory over Wake Forest after a loss to SMU, improving to 14–2 on the season and 2–1 in ACC play. Stanford sits 72nd in the NET rankings, making this a quad 1 matchup for the Tar Heels, a category in which they are 3–2 this season.

UNC has displayed a balanced approach on both ends of the floor, averaging 81.7 points per game (68th in Division I) while allowing just 67.1 points per game (28th). Stanford has also put together a solid start to the season, entering this game at 13–4 overall with a 2–2 record in ACC play. With UNC ranked 23rd in the NET, this is also a quad 1 opportunity for the Cardinal, where they are 3–1 on the year. Stanford averages 76.9 points per game (144th in Division I) and allows 70.6 points per game (86th). With every conference game carrying added importance, it will be interesting to see how both teams perform, especially with Stanford holding the advantage of playing at home across the country.

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Betting Overview

This matchup opened with North Carolina listed as a 2.5-point favorite and has remained steady at that number. The moneyline has seen only minor movement, with UNC sitting at -140 (down from -148) and Stanford at +130 (up from +124). The total varies slightly across sportsbooks, with numbers ranging from 143 to 144.5.

KenPom Ratings

North Carolina sits slightly lower in the KenPom rankings than in some other metrics, coming in at 30th with a +20.03 adjusted rating. Stanford checks in at 80th with a +11.03 adjusted rating. The Tar Heels have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 119.9 (41st nationally) paired with a 99.9 adjusted defensive efficiency (39th), reinforcing their identity as a well-balanced team. Stanford, meanwhile, posts an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.8 (105th nationally) along with a defensive efficiency of 101.8 (59th).

Betting Trends

UNC and Stanford haven’t met often in recent years, but they did face off last season in Chapel Hill, where Stanford pulled off the upset. North Carolina not only lost outright, but also failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite. The under cashed in that matchup as well, with the total set at 153.5 in a 72–71 final.

The Tar Heels are 9–7 ATS this season, with a 1–1 record on the road, a strong 5–2 record in games with 4+ days of rest, and a 1–2 mark in ACC play. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in 11 of 16 games overall. On the road, totals have split 1–1, while the under has hit in 5 of 7 games with extended rest. In ACC games so far, the over has hit in 2 of 3.

Stanford enters this matchup at 9–8 ATS on the year, including a 5–6 record at home and a perfect 1–0 mark as a home underdog. They are 3–4 ATS in games with 4+ days off and 2–2 in ACC play. Totals have also favored the under, hitting in 11 of 17 games overall, including 6 of 11 at home and the lone game as a home underdog. In games with 4+ days of rest, however, the over has hit in 4 of 7.

Final Thoughts

This feels like another game that could come down to the final possessions for UNC. Factoring in the cross-country travel and the Tar Heels’ inconsistent play early in ACC action, I lean toward Stanford covering in this spot. As for the total, I would lean toward the under.