Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears

Date: January 14th at 11:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

It appears the Duke Blue Devils are following UNC out to Northern California, as they prepare to take on the Cal Golden Bears this evening. To no one’s surprise, Duke has once again proven to be one of the most talented teams in the country, entering this matchup with a 15–1 overall record and a perfect 4–0 start in ACC play. Cal sits 71st in the NET rankings, making this a Quad 1 game for the Blue Devils, a category in which they are an impressive 6–1 this season. Duke has been highly efficient on both ends of the floor, averaging 86.8 points per game (25th in D1) while allowing just 66.6 points per game (23rd in D1).

California, on the other hand, has put together a solid season of its own with a 13–4 overall record, though they have struggled early in conference play, currently sitting at 1–3. This is also a Quad 1 matchup for Cal, a quadrant in which they are just 1–4 this season. The Golden Bears average 79.0 points per game (106th in D1) while allowing 69.9 points per game (75th in D1). While this is a difficult travel spot for Duke, it presents a strong opportunity to secure another win and continue what feels like a revenge tour from last season.

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Betting Overview

This contest opened with Duke listed as an 11.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved to 12.5 at most sportsbooks. On the moneyline, the best value for Duke sits around -750, while Cal can be found as high as +610. The total has remained relatively steady, holding at 152.5 at most books, with a few listing it at 153.5.

KenPom Ratings

Duke currently sits 8th in the KenPom rankings with a +29.64 net rating, while Cal checks in at 82nd with a +10.50 net rating. The Blue Devils boast an adjusted offensive efficiency of 124.1 (10th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.5 (also 10th nationally). California holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 114.1 (92nd nationally) along with a 103.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (81st nationally).

Betting Trends

There isn’t a large sample size between these teams, as they only met once last season after several years without a matchup. Duke won that contest, but Cal managed to cover the 23.5-point spread, and the under cashed at 142.5 in a 78–57 game.

Duke enters this matchup 8–8 ATS on the season, with a 3–1 record on the road and a 2–1 mark as an away favorite. They are 7–4 ATS in games with 2–3 days of rest, but just 1–3 ATS in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the under this season, hitting in 10 of 16 games and splitting 2 apiece on the road. However, in games as a road favorite, the over has hit in 2 of 3, and in conference play the over has cashed in 3 of 4. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has been more common, hitting in 7 of 11 games.

Cal is also 8–8 ATS this year, with a 5–7 record at home and an 0–1 record as a home underdog. They are 5–4 ATS in games with 2–3 days off and 1–3 ATS in ACC play. Totals have split evenly on the season, going 8–8 overall. At home, the under has been the stronger trend, hitting in 7 of 12 games, while the over hit in the lone game as a home underdog. In games with 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in 6 of 9, as well as in 3 of 4 conference games.

Final Thoughts

With Duke listed as a sizable favorite, this game is difficult to project with confidence. Cal has struggled early in ACC play, while Duke has shown they are not without flaws. Still, Duke is the more well-rounded team, with strong efficiency on both ends of the floor. I expect the Blue Devils to cover in this spot, and I also lean toward the over.