Another College Basketball Saturday is upon us, and the ACC slate is loaded with intriguing matchups and storylines. Today, we’ll focus on a few key games, diving into advanced metrics and current betting lines for each. We’ll start with Miami at Clemson, a matchup featuring two teams still undefeated in ACC play. From there, we’ll look at UNC’s trip west to face Cal, and finally Duke’s road test against Stanford.

Miami at Clemson- 2:15 PM

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Spread: Clemson -4.5 to -5

Moneyline: Miami- +165 to +180; Clemson- -200 to -220

Total: 143.5

In the mid-afternoon window, Miami (15-2, 4-0 ACC) travels to Clemson (15-3, 5-0 ACC) in a game where one team will suffer its first conference loss of the season. For Miami, this is a Quad 1 matchup, where they are 2-2 on the year. For Clemson, it narrowly qualifies as a Quad 2 game, with Miami sitting 31st in the NET rankings; the Tigers are 4-1 in Quad 2 games this season.

KenPom

These teams sit right next to each other in KenPom, with Clemson ranked 28th and Miami 29th. Clemson owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 117.9 (63rd nationally) and an elite adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.9 (16th nationally).

Miami presents a more balanced profile, posting a 120.6 adjusted offensive efficiency (44th nationally) while also holding a 100.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (36th nationally).

Dating back to 2023, these teams have met four times, with each side winning twice and splitting evenly against the spread. Totals have also split, with two overs and two unders.

Miami is 9-7 ATS on the season, including a perfect 3-0 record on the road, a 6-3 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-2 record in ACC play. Totals have heavily favored the over, which has hit in 11 of 15 games. On the road, the over has cashed in 2 of 3 games, split evenly as a road underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in 7 of 9, and in ACC play, it has hit in 3 of 4.

Clemson is 10-6-1 ATS this season, with a 4-4-1 record at home (all as favorites), a 4-4-1 record with 2–3 days of rest, and an impressive 4-0-1 mark in ACC games. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 10 of 17 games, including 7 of 9 at home, 5 of 9 with 2–3 days of rest, and 3 of 5 in conference play.

Final Thoughts

This shapes up as a tight, competitive matchup between two evenly rated teams. I lean toward Miami covering on the road, given their strong ATS profile away from home. As for the total, I’d slightly favor the over, though it’s a spot I’d prefer to approach cautiously or avoid altogether.

North Carolina at California- 4:00 PM 

Spread: UNC -6 to -6.5

Moneyline: UNC- -250 to -275; Cal- +205 to +220

Total: 150.5 to 151.5

As we move closer to the evening slate, UNC continues its California road trip after dropping a close contest to Stanford on Wednesday. The Tar Heels (14-3, 2-2 ACC) will now face California (13-5, 1-4 ACC) at 4:00 PM in a game that feels close to a must-win for Carolina. This matchup qualifies as a Quad 1 game for both teams, with UNC sitting at 3-3 in Quad 1 contests and Cal at 1-4.

KenPom

North Carolina enters this matchup ranked 35th in the KenPom ratings, while the Golden Bears sit at 84th. UNC owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.4 (35th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 101.9 (51st nationally).

California comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.1 (99th nationally), paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.9 (72nd nationally).

These teams have met just once in recent history, which came last season. In that matchup, UNC won the game outright, covered the spread, and the under cashed.

UNC is 9-8 ATS this season, with a 1-2 record on the road, an 0-1 mark as an away favorite, a 3-5 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 1-3 record in ACC play. Totals have strongly favored the under, hitting in 11 of 17 games overall. On the road, the over has hit in 2 of 3 games, including the lone contest as a road favorite. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has cashed in 5 of 8 games, while in ACC play the over has hit in 3 of 4.

California is 8-9 ATS on the year, including a 5-8 record at home, an 0-2 record as a home underdog, a 5-5 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and a 1-4 record in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 9 of 17 games overall and 7 of 11 at home. Totals have split in games where Cal has been a home underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in 6 of 10 games, as well as 3 of 5 conference matchups.

Final Thoughts

I expect North Carolina to come into this game with a strong sense of urgency after the loss to Stanford. I think the Tar Heels respond in a big way, winning comfortably and covering the spread. As for the total, I would lean toward the under, though this feels like a true coin-flip spot.

Duke at Stanford- 6:00 PM 

Spread: Duke -9.5 to -10.5

Moneyline: Duke- -485 to -720; Stanford- +370 to +500

Total: 146.5 to 147.5

Rounding out their California trip, Duke (16-1, 5-0 ACC) will square off against Stanford (14-4, 3-2 ACC) in the early evening slate. This matchup qualifies as a Quad 1 game for both teams, with Duke holding a 7-1 record in Quad 1 contests, while Stanford sits at 4-1.

KenPom 

Duke enters this game ranked 6th in the KenPom ratings, while Stanford checks in at 70th. The Blue Devils rank 12th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.4) and 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.7).

Stanford comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 115.1 (85th nationally), paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.2 (64th nationally).

These teams met last season in Durham, where Duke won convincingly, covering the hefty 18.5-point spread, with the over also cashing.

Duke is 9-8 ATS this season, including a strong 4-1 record on the road, a 3-1 mark as a road favorite, an 8-4 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-3 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 11 of 17 games overall, including 3 of 5 on the road. As a road favorite, totals have split evenly. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has hit in 10 of 15 games, while ACC games have seen the over hit in 3 of 5.

Stanford is 10-8 ATS on the year, with a 6-6 record at home, a perfect 2-0 mark as a home underdog, a 6-4 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 3-2 record in conference play. Totals have favored the under, hitting in 11 of 18 games overall. At home, totals have split evenly, as have games where Stanford was a home underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has cashed in 7 of 10 games, and in ACC play, the under has hit in 4 of 5.

Final Thoughts

I expect Duke to continue rolling here. They’re coming off a dominant win against Cal on Wednesday, and I think they carry that momentum into this matchup and cover the spread. As for the total, the under is the clear lean, especially when factoring in the trends for both teams.