Game: Charlotte 49ers vs. East Carolina Pirates

Date: January 18th at 2:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

The Charlotte 49ers continue their trek through the American Conference after an unfortunate loss to Tulsa on Wednesday. However, they’ll have a solid bounce-back opportunity today as they take on ECU. Charlotte sits at an even 9-9 on the season, including a 3-2 record in conference play.

Given how much ECU has struggled this year—currently sitting 292nd in the NET rankings—this matchup qualifies as a Quad 4 road game for Charlotte, a quadrant in which the 49ers are a perfect 7-0 this season. Offensively, Charlotte has been underwhelming, averaging 73.7 points per game (206th in Division I), but the defense has been respectable, allowing just 73.4 points per game (136th in Division I).

ECU has had a very difficult season, coming into this contest with a 5-12 overall record and an 0-4 mark in the American Conference. With Charlotte ranked 174th in the NET and ECU playing at home, this also qualifies as a Quad 4 matchup for the Pirates, a category in which they are 3-4 this season.  The Pirates average 68.4 points per game (299th in Division 1), while allowing 77.8 points per game (252nd in Division 1). While this isn’t a marquee American Conference showdown, it should still provide a competitive battle.

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Betting Overview

The betting market has been fairly consistent across sportsbooks for this matchup. Charlotte is listed as a 1.5-point favorite at most books. On the moneyline, the best value for Charlotte sits at -120 (FanDuel), while ECU can be found at +105 at several books, including Bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. The total has seen a slight dip, moving from its opening number of 143.5 down to 141.5.

KenPom Ratings

The Charlotte 49ers enter this matchup ranked 181st in the KenPom ratings, with a net rating of -1.83. ECU, meanwhile, sits much lower at 269th, carrying a -9.22 net rating. Charlotte owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.5 (124th nationally), but struggles on the defensive end with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 114.3 (272nd).

On the other side, ECU posts an adjusted offensive efficiency of just 100.3 (325th nationally), paired with a 109.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (163rd). These metrics suggest a slight contrast compared to each team’s raw scoring averages—Charlotte grades out as a stronger offensive team analytically, while ECU profiles as a more competent defensive unit than their points allowed per game might indicate.

Betting Trends

Looking at head-to-head results dating back to 2024, these programs have split four matchups evenly, winning two games apiece. Charlotte has had the edge against the spread, however, covering in three of the four contests. Totals have also split evenly, with two overs and two unders.

Charlotte is 8-9 ATS on the season, including a 2-3 record on the road, a 1-1 mark as a road favorite, a 5-5 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-3 record in American Conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 10 of 17 games overall and in three of five road games. When Charlotte has had 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in six of ten games, as well as in four of five conference matchups.

ECU enters at 5-11 ATS, with a 3-6 record at home, a 1-1 record as a home underdog, a 4-4 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-2 conference record. Totals have favored the under in ECU games, hitting in nine of sixteen overall. At home, the under has hit in five of nine games, though the over has cashed in both contests where ECU was a home underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, totals have split evenly, as they have in conference play.

Final Thoughts

This matchup presents a strong opportunity for Charlotte to climb back above the .500 mark. I expect a performance similar to what we saw from the 49ers against UTSA on January 7th, which makes me comfortable backing Charlotte to cover in this spot. As for the total, the most relevant trends in this matchup point toward the over.