Game: Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Date: January 19th at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

It all comes down to this, an entire college football season is behind us, and only two teams remain standing to decide it all. Tonight, in Miami, we will crown a National Champion in a matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and the Indiana Hoosiers. It is rare to see a college team play in its home stadium during the National Championship, but Miami will do just that this evening, though they will occupy the away locker room as the lower seed. 

Records become far less important at this stage, though Miami enters as a 13-2 team that has won three playoff games to reach this point. Offensively, they have been reliable, averaging 398.8 yards per game (44th in FBS) and 30.6 points per game (26th in FBS). What has truly carried them to this stage, however, has been their defense, which has allowed only 299.9 yards per game (11th in FBS) and just 14.8 points per game (5th in FBS). 

Indiana is chasing a perfect 16-0 season, which would make them the first team to accomplish this feat in the modern era of college football. The Hoosiers have played only two CFP games thanks to a first-round bye, but they have left no doubt in either contest, reinforcing why they earned the number one overall seed. Indiana’s offense has been dominant, averaging 445.6 yards per game (16th in FBS) and 40.4 points per game (3rd in FBS). Defensively, they have been even more impressive, allowing just 274.1 yards per game (4th in FBS) and only 11.9 points per game (2nd in FBS). The stakes could not be higher, and by the end of the night, a new national champion will be crowned.

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Weather

Temperatures will be on the cooler side for Miami, with kickoff expected in the mid to upper 50s throughout the evening. Precipitation will not be a factor with a 0% chance of rain, while winds are expected to average around 8 mph, with gusts reaching up to 15 mph.

Betting Overview

This championship matchup opened with Indiana listed as a 7.5-point favorite, and at one point the line climbed as high as 8.5 before settling back at 7.5 across most sportsbooks. The moneyline has remained relatively stable, with Miami sitting at +260 (from +270) and Indiana at -310 (from -340). The total has dipped slightly, moving down one point from its opening number of 48.5 to 47.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: The FPI model was finally updated from all of the playoff/bowl games, and we see Indiana in the number 1 spot giving 31.7 points to the FBS average, while Miami is in the 5-spot giving 22.2 points to the field average.  According to this model, we should see Indiana as a 9.5-point favorite given the “neutral field”.  I’m sure Vegas is giving some value to the fact that it truly is Miami’s home stadium.
  • SP+: As far as positioning goes in this model Indiana remains the same at number 1, but Miami is all the way at the 9 slot.  We see Indiana giving 33.1 points to the field average, while Miami is giving 22 points.  Based on this, we should see the Hoosiers as even stronger favorites.

Betting Trends

Miami has been a strong ATS team throughout the season, posting a 10-5 record overall. In neutral-site games, the Hurricanes are a perfect 2-0, while also going 3-0 as an underdog and an impressive 6-1 against non-conference opponents. Totals in Miami games have generally leaned toward the under, which has hit in 9 of 15 contests. In neutral-site games, totals have split one apiece. As an underdog, the under has hit in 2 of 3 games, and it has also hit in 4 of 7 non-conference matchups.

Indiana’s impressive season has also resulted in a 10-5 ATS record. The Hoosiers are a perfect 3-0 in neutral-site games, an 8-5 ATS team when favored, and 3-1 against non-conference opponents. When it comes to totals, the over has been slightly more favorable in Indiana games, hitting in 8 of 15. However, in neutral-site contests, the under has hit in 2 of 3. As a favorite, the over has cashed in 8 of 13 games, while totals in non-conference matchups have split evenly at two overs and two unders.

Final Thoughts

With 60 minutes of football remaining in the college football season, fans across the country will have their eyes locked on this matchup as the 2025–2026 season comes to a close. Given the current playoff format, it is hard to argue that either team is undeserving of this stage. While this is a difficult game to bet, I trust what Curt Cignetti has built throughout the season and across his career as a head coach. For that reason, I lean toward the Hoosiers covering the spread. As for the total, this game could go either way, but I would give a slight lean to the under given the strength of both defenses.