Game: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: January 21st at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

The trip out west for UNC to take on Stanford and Cal was a complete failure, to say the least. Those were two games they should have won, but they came away empty-handed in both. On the bright side, the Tar Heels will return home to host a struggling Notre Dame team this Wednesday night in a game they badly need to win to get back on track. 

Notre Dame enters this matchup with a 10-8 overall record and a disappointing 1-4 mark in ACC play. Looking at the NET rankings, UNC remains relatively high at 29th, which makes this a Quad 1 matchup for the Irish, a quadrant in which they are just 2-7 this season. This Notre Dame team is not known for its offense, averaging only 73.4 points per game (214th in Division I), but they are a solid defensive group, allowing 69.3 points per game (56th in Division I). 

UNC has not gotten off to the ACC start they were hoping for, as they now sit at 14-4 overall with a 2-3 conference record. With Notre Dame currently ranked 78th in the NET, this becomes a Quad 3 home game for Carolina, a quadrant in which they are a perfect 4-0. The Tar Heels bring a fairly balanced attack, ranking 60th nationally in points per game (81.9) while also sitting 63rd in points allowed per game (69.6). For UNC, this is a chance to correct recent mistakes, while for Notre Dame, it represents an opportunity to hand the Tar Heels another setback and breathe some life into their season.

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Betting Overview

The line for this game moved quickly, opening at UNC -10.5 before shifting to -11.5, and in some spots even -12 or -12.5 depending on the sportsbook. On the moneyline, the best value for Notre Dame sits at +550, while UNC is priced as high as -800. There is some noticeable discrepancy in the total, with a few sportsbooks posting 145.5, others listing 146.5, and some reaching as high as 147.5.

KenPom Ratings

There is a noticeable gap between these teams in the KenPom ratings, as expected, with UNC checking in at 36th with a +18.85 net rating, while Notre Dame sits 75th with a +11.25 net rating. The Tar Heels own an adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.0 (36th nationally), paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.2 (53rd nationally). Notre Dame comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (108th nationally) and a defensive efficiency rating of 103.3 (55th nationally).

Betting Trends

Notre Dame has been a member of the ACC in basketball for quite some time now, which gives us a strong recent sample size between the Irish and the Tar Heels. Over the last 10 matchups dating back to 2019, UNC has won 8 of the 10 meetings. Against the spread, the Tar Heels have covered in 6 of those 10 games. When it comes to totals, the under has hit in 6 of the last 10 contests, including each of the last four meetings.

Entering this matchup, Notre Dame sits at 10-8 ATS, with a strong 4-1 record on the road, all of which have come as underdogs. They are 4-4 in games with 2-3 days of rest, and 2-3 in ACC play. From a total’s perspective, the over has hit in 11 of 18 games overall, 3 of 5 on the road, 7 of 8 games with 2-3 days off, and 4 of 5 games in conference play.

Carolina is an even 9-9 ATS on the season, with a 7-4 record at home, all as favorites, a 3-6 record with 2-3 days of rest, and a 1-4 record in the ACC. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 11 of 18 games, including 8 of 11 at home and 5 of 8 with 2-3 days off. In ACC games, however, the over has hit in 4 of 5 contests.

Final Thoughts

Both teams are in desperate need of a win on Wednesday night. Notre Dame has endured a mix of close losses and lopsided defeats, while UNC has put together several questionable performances in recent weeks. This feels like a spot where Carolina gets a much-needed reset at home and comes out with urgency. I expect the Tar Heels to win, cover the spread, and for the over to cash in this matchup.