Game: New England Patriot vs. Denver Broncos

Date: January 25th at 3:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS/Paramount+

Conference Championship Sunday is finally here, and the action will kick off in Denver, where the Broncos, the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, will host the New England Patriots. Up to this point, New England hasn’t had to sweat much in the fourth quarter, as most of their games have remained firmly under control. Throughout their playoff run, they’ve knocked off the Chargers and the Texans at home behind a stout defense and a methodical offensive approach. One notable trend is that the Patriots have not lost a road game all season, and we’ll see if that streak can continue this weekend in Denver. Offensively, New England has been efficient all year, ranking 6th in yards per game (372.5) and 5th in points per game (28.1). Defensively, they’ve been equally impressive, allowing just 287.7 yards per game along with 17.8 points per game.

For Denver, the major storyline all week has been how they will operate without starting quarterback Bo Nix. Jarrett Stidham will take over under center, facing a Patriots team led offensively by Josh McDaniels, who coached Stidham for a large portion of his NFL career. The Broncos handled business at home last Saturday against the Bills, pulling out a 33-30 overtime victory. Denver’s offense hasn’t been overly explosive this season, ranking 10th in yards per game (343) and 13th in points per game (24.1). Defensively, however, they have been a powerhouse, sitting 5th in yards allowed per game (287.7) and 4th in points allowed per game (18.9). Will the absence of Bo Nix be too much to overcome, or will Denver’s defense prevail as Jarrett Stidham rises to the moment?

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Weather 

Sunday in Denver could bring some challenging conditions. Temperatures are expected to sit in the high 20s to low 30s throughout the game. Snow is a real possibility, with a 50–60% chance during the contest. Winds should be manageable, averaging around 8 mph with gusts reaching up to 17 mph.

Betting Overview

Largely due to the Bo Nix news, this game opened with New England listed as a 5.5-point favorite. Since then, the line has shifted slightly toward Denver at some sportsbooks, with the Patriots now sitting between 4.5- and 5.5-point favorites. The moneyline has remained relatively steady, with New England’s best value at -245 (from -270) and Denver’s best price at +220 (from +210). Interestingly, the total has ticked upward from the opening number of 40.5, as most books now list it at either 42 or 42.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: What the New England coaching staff has accomplished under Mike Vrabel to turn this team around has been nothing short of remarkable. They’ve transformed what once looked like a spiraling franchise back into a familiar form, built around a strong defense and a high-level quarterback capable of controlling the offense. That said, the playoffs often come down to experience, and the coaching staff on the other sideline, led by Sean Payton, has plenty of it, giving Denver a slight edge in this AFC Championship matchup.

OLs vs. DLs: One of the biggest, and most likely, reasons Denver can stay in this game is their ability to control the line of scrimmage. New England has been much improved up front this season compared to years past, but Denver is absolutely stacked on both sides of the ball, giving the Broncos the nod in the trenches.

QBs: The comparison here is fairly straightforward. On one side, you have Drake Maye, who has firmly placed himself in the MVP conversation. On the other, you have a backup quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in a meaningful game since 2023. Sean Payton will undoubtedly put together a strong game plan to maximize Jarrett Stidham’s effectiveness, but given Maye’s résumé this season, the edge is clear.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Neither linebacker group truly stands out in this matchup, and neither team features an overly dominant rushing attack, although Denver has opened the practice window for J.K. Dobbins. Even so, this matchup slightly favors New England, as they hold a modest advantage at the tight end position.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This is an intriguing matchup on the perimeter, featuring two very strong secondaries, with Denver holding a clear edge. The receiving corps on both sides are comparable in overall talent, though Denver may be slightly better, which gives the Broncos a narrow advantage on the outside.

Betting Trends

Across the regular season and postseason, the Patriots are 13-5-1 ATS, including a strong 7-1 record on the road, a 3-1 mark as road favorites, and a 2-0 record in the playoffs. Totals have leaned toward the over, which has hit in 12 of 19 games overall and in 5 of 8 road contests. When New England has been a road favorite, totals have split evenly at 2-2, with the over/under also splitting 1-1 in their playoff games thus far.

Denver hasn’t been as consistent against the spread, posting an 8-9-1 ATS record on the season, along with a 6-4 mark at home, a perfect 2-0 record as a home favorite, and a 1-0 record in the postseason. When it comes to totals, the under has been the more profitable angle, hitting in 10 of 18 games. At home, totals have split evenly at 5-5, as they have when Denver has been a home underdog. In their lone playoff game last week against Buffalo, the over ultimately cashed.

Final Thoughts

With a trip to Super Bowl 60 on the line, both teams will leave everything on the field in this matchup. While much of the media attention has focused on Bo Nix being sidelined, his absence may not be as damaging as it’s being portrayed. Nix was certainly impactful, but Denver’s defense remains the true engine of this team. Because of that, I expect Jarrett Stidham to do just enough to keep the Broncos competitive, allowing them to cover the number. As for the total, the conflicting trends on both sides make it a pass.