Game: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: January 24th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: The CW Network

After their successful trip to the West Coast, the Duke Blue Devils enjoyed a week off before facing Wake Forest in Durham on Saturday. While Wake Forest hasn’t been a powerhouse in recent years, this season has been especially difficult for the program. The Demon Deacons enter this matchup with an 11-8 overall record and a 2-4 mark in ACC play. Unsurprisingly, this is a Quad 1 matchup for Wake Forest, and they are 0-6 in such games this season. Offensively, Wake Forest can score, averaging 80.9 points per game (70th in Division I), but they have struggled defensively, allowing 75.8 points per game (197th in Division I). 

Duke, on the other hand, looks like an unstoppable force at this point in the season. The Blue Devils are 17-1 overall and remain undefeated in ACC play at 6-0. This contest qualifies as a Quad 2 matchup for Duke, as Wake Forest sits 67th in the NET rankings, and the Blue Devils are 1-0 against Quad 2 opponents this season. Duke has been dominant on both ends of the floor, averaging 85.5 points per game (26th in Division I) while allowing just 65.1 points per game (12th in Division I). There’s no sugarcoating this one—Wake Forest faces a steep uphill battle as they look to gain traction in conference play.

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Betting Overview

When the betting market opened, Duke was listed as a 17.5-point favorite, a number that has since moved to 18.5. As expected, there is a wide gap on the moneyline, with the best value on Wake Forest at +1280 (FanDuel), while Duke sits at -2100 (DraftKings). The total has also ticked up slightly, moving from 149.5 to either 150.5 or 151.5, depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

Duke ranks third in the KenPom ratings with a net rating of +33.25, while Wake Forest sits 70th with a net rating of +11.96. The efficiency metrics mirror what we see in the raw scoring numbers, as Duke boasts an adjusted offensive efficiency of 126.0 (8th nationally) and an elite adjusted defensive efficiency of 92.8 (5th nationally). Wake Forest checks in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (100th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.6 (50th nationally).

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these programs, Wake Forest has managed just two wins. Despite that, the Demon Deacons have been competitive against the number, covering in six of those 10 matchups. Totals have leaned toward the over as well, hitting in six of the 10 games.

This season, Wake Forest is 7-11-1 ATS, with a 1-1-1 record on the road, a 1-1 mark as a road underdog, a 5-8 record with two to three days of rest, and a 1-4-1 record in ACC play. From a total’s perspective, the over has hit in 11 of 19 games. On the road, the under has cashed in two of three contests, while totals have split 1–1 in games as a road underdog. In games with two to three days of rest, the over has hit in eight of 13, as well as four of six conference games.

Duke enters this matchup at 10-8 ATS on the season, including a 3-5 record at home, a 1-3 record with four or more days of rest, and a 3-3 mark in ACC play. Totals have trended toward the under, hitting in 12 of 18 games overall and five of eight at home. In games with four or more days off, the over/under has split evenly at 2–2, as well as 3–3 in conference play.

Final Thoughts

With the confidence and momentum surrounding Duke, it’s difficult to pick against them outright. I have little doubt the Blue Devils win this game, but there are legitimate questions about whether they cover such a large number. While Wake Forest’s record leaves a lot to be desired, they haven’t been blown out often this season. I expect the Demon Deacons to do enough to stay within the number, and I also lean toward the under in this matchup.