College Basketball Bets

We’ve got 37 games on the college basketball card for today as things slowly return to normal in a lot of the areas affected by Winter Storm Fern. That being said, we do have some early starts in the SWAC and Southland Conferences today with a couple 2 p.m. ET tips, plus one at 4 and one at 4:30 as rescheduled games have to be fit into the schedule.

Nebraska vs. Michigan is one of today’s two marquee tilts and I previewed that game here. We’ve got a lot of college basketball content during the week linked below, so take advantage of those insights as you get into the rhythms of the season or if you’ve been following them throughout. Along with those two conferences referenced above, we also have the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, A-10, MAC,  Big East, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mountain West on the docket.

For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.

As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5, 166.5) at Oklahoma Sooners

7 p.m. ET

John Calipari has taken the Hogs to the outskirts of the OKC metro to take on Oklahoma in Norman. The road hasn’t been terribly kind to Arkansas thus far in SEC play, with a win at Mississippi and losses to Auburn and Georgia, but this Sooners squad is much closer to the Rebels than the other two teams.

Oklahoma’s full-season offensive numbers look pretty decent, right? They’re 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 68th in eFG%, 62nd in 2P% and 130th in 3P%. Well, a few things… The first is that Arkansas grades better in all of those categories but one and it’s 2P% where the teams are tied at 55.9%. Also, Oklahoma’s numbers in conference play are far worse than their full body of work. The Sooners are 14th in the 16-team SEC in eFG% offense in conference play. They are 15th in 2P% and ninth in 3P%.

To make matters worse, the Sooners are 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, as they haven’t defended shots terribly well and have just a 13.3% TO% in conference games. Given that the Sooners have played the 14th-ranked strength of schedule in SEC action per Torvik, those are really concerning numbers.

Arkansas has major defensive problems, but they are first in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 3P%, and 2P% in conference play. They haven’t defended 2-pointers well, but do lead the conference in Block%, so I think there’s some positive regression coming in that department. By SOS, Torvik has them seventh, so they’ve got very good offensive numbers and do have some decent defensive numbers while playing a tougher schedule than Oklahoma.

Lastly, I think Mohamed Wague is dealing with something. The 6-foot-10 offensive rebound fiend has played 16 and 13 minutes the last two games. He did have four fouls in just 13 minutes against Missouri last time out and I’d expect Arkansas to try to go at him with Trevon Brazile, Nick Pringle, and Malique Ewin when he’s out there.

Pick: Arkansas -2.5

Indiana State Sycamores at Illinois Chicago Flames (-6.5, 147.5)

8 p.m. ET

We’ve seen a good bump on the total in this game, but the spread has actually slid down ever so slightly on the home team. The Flames are still a comfortable favorite in this clash with the Sycamores, as Rob Ehsan’s team is on a six-game heater. After dropping the first four MVC games of the season, UIC has reeled off six in a row, including road wins at Illinois State, Northern Iowa, and Bradley.

Now they’re back in the friendly confines looking for a seventh straight victory. I don’t think that people realize how much of a difference having a healthy Elijah Crawford back makes for the Flames. He’s played the team’s last seven games after two November appearances and a lot of missed games. Over this six-game win streak, Crawford has 13.8 PPG and has 29 assists against 12 turnovers. 

Per CBB Analytics On/Off Data, the Flames are 31.5 points better in Net Rating with Crawford on the floor compared to when he isn’t out there. They are +11.1 in Offensive Rating and -20.4 in Defensive Rating, as they rank in the 99th percentile in DRtg with Crawford on the floor. He’s helped the team in so many different ways and they are absolutely a different team with him.

UIC is third in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference games, while Indiana State is sixth and ninth, respectively. The Flames are also first in eFG% defense and first in TO% on defense. Indiana State has the lowest TO% on defense of the 11 teams in the conference.

I would expect UIC to have more possessions, more scoring opportunities against the 10th-ranked eFG% defense in the conference, and to keep their winning ways rolling.

Pick: UIC -6.5

The post College Basketball Picks for Tuesday, January 27 from Adam Burke appeared first on VSiN.