The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff game on 6/13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 72 games, outright winners have gone 65-4-3 ATS (94.2%) in the NBA Finals.

* In the NBA Finals, teams that shoot 46% or better from three have gone just 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS (9.1%) in the follow-up outing since 2016.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 34-10 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

General Trends

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 72 games, outright winners have gone 65-4-3 ATS (94.2%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning UNDER of late – In the 79 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 31 Overs, 46 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 32-14-1 (69.6%) run in the last 47 games.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Embed from Getty Images

Trends by Line Range

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 29-10 SU and 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%).
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs NYK)

Last Game Trends

Good 3PT shooting games don’t carry momentum – While poor shooting games overall don’t bode well for teams in the next NBA Finals game, neither does hot 3-point shooting, as teams that shoot 46% or better from deep have gone just 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS (9.1%) in the follow-up outing since 2016.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

Trends by Seed Number

#2 seeds have been the worst betting option of any seed – The record of #2 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2014 is 17-25 SU and 17-24-1 ATS (41.5%). The worst spot in this trend is after losses, 7-12-1 ATS in the last 20.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs NYK)

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been good in Games 3 and later of their respective series, going 13-12 SU and 14-11 ATS (56%).
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 32-52 SU and 32-49-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 34-10 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for Game 5:

(505) NEW YORK at (506) SAN ANTONIO
* Underdogs are 7-6 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Knicks-Spurs non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)
* Under the total is 3-1 in the last four of the series at San Antonio as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 196-76 SU and 156-115-1 ATS (57.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME 5

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game 5 as of 1:00 pm. ET on Friday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, & total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+5.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML (+164 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +5.5 (+0.7)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +5.5 (+1.1)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +5.5 (+0.2)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-SAS UNDER 216.5 (-0.7)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5, Saturday, June 13 appeared first on VSiN.