Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: February 7th at 6:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

In what is one of the most highly anticipated games of the college basketball season, we get the first iteration of this year’s Duke–UNC matchup, with the first one tipping off in Chapel Hill tomorrow night. For the first time in almost two years, it feels like the Tar Heels will be competitive in this rivalry, even with how well Duke has been playing. 

Duke, now 21-1, looks to continue its perfect conference record, which currently sits at 10-0. They will be adding another quad one game to their résumé, the only quadrant they’ve suffered a loss in, sitting at 9-1 this season. This Blue Devils squad is now averaging 84.1 points per game (29th in Division I), while allowing just 63.6 points per game (6th in Division I). 

North Carolina is on a bit of a win streak of its own, winning four straight, and enters this game with an 18-4 overall record and a 6-3 mark in the ACC. The Tar Heels will be playing their eighth quad one opponent of the year, and they are currently 4-3 against such opponents this season. UNC is now averaging 83.1 points per game (39th in Division I) and allowing 70.6 points per game (74th in Division I).

These matchups are always highly anticipated, but this one in particular feels like it has a ton of excitement, as we will learn whether this UNC team is truly legitimate and potentially how good this Duke team really is. We’ll just have to find out at 6:30 PM tomorrow evening.

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Betting Overview

There hasn’t been any movement from the opening spread in this contest, as Duke opened and has remained a 5.5-point favorite up to this point. The same can be said for the moneyline, as we find Duke’s best value at -250 (DraftKings) and UNC’s best value at +220 (Bet365 or FanDuel). We’ve seen the total remain steady as well, opening at 150.5 and holding strong at that number.

KenPom Ratings

Duke still remains in the third spot in the KenPom ratings with a +35.64 net rating, while UNC sits in the 30th spot with a +21.61 net rating. The Blue Devils remain one of the most balanced teams in the country, with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 126.5 (5th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 90.9 (3rd nationally). UNC, though, is more offensively leaning, with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.5 (18th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 101.9 (56th nationally).

Betting Trends

We’ve obviously seen a ton of matchups between these programs, including 10 dating back to 2022. In those games, Duke has narrowly edged out UNC in the win column, winning six of the last 10. In the ATS department, these teams have split five games apiece over the last 10, and totals have slightly favored the over, hitting in six of the last 10.

This season, Duke is 13-9 ATS, with a 6-1 record on the road, a 5-1 record as a road favorite, a 9-5 record with 2-3 days off, and a 6-4 record in the ACC. We’ve seen unders become prominent in Duke games, hitting in 15 of 22, with five of seven on the road and four of six as an away favorite. In games with 2-3 days off, the under has hit in 10 of 14, as well as six of 10 in the ACC.

The Tar Heels are 12-10 ATS this year, with an 8-5 record at home (none as underdogs), a 6-2 record with 4+ days off, and a 4-5 record in the ACC. Totals have split 11 games apiece in UNC games this year. At home, the under has hit in eight of 13, as well as five of eight with 4+ days off. In ACC games, however, we’ve seen the over hit in eight of nine.

Final Thoughts

We know this game will have all of the anticipation and excitement that any Duke–UNC game brings. Duke being a decently sized favorite on the road in this matchup is certainly interesting. I think we’ll see this one come down to the wire, so I’d slightly lean toward UNC covering in this spot. As for the total, I’d very slightly lean toward the over.