Game: NC State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals Preview

Date: February 9th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Tonight on “Big Monday,” we’ll get another ACC showdown as the NC State Wolfpack travel to Louisville to take on the Cardinals. NC State has been red hot in ACC play, riding a six-game winning streak that has pushed their overall record to 18-6, along with a 9-2 conference mark. Facing a 17th-ranked Louisville team on the road makes this a quad 1 matchup for the Wolfpack, and they are currently 3-4 against such opponents. NC State is averaging 85.7 points per game (22nd in Division I), while allowing 72.5 points per game (117th in Division I).

Louisville has been a solid team all season, coming into this matchup with a 17-6 overall record and a 7-4 mark in ACC play. With NC State ranked 27th in the NET rankings, this will also be a quad 1 matchup for the Cardinals, a quadrant in which they are currently 4-6. This season, Louisville has averaged 85.7 points per game (21st in Division I), while allowing just 70.7 points per game (78th in Division I). This matchup is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair and should remain competitive well into the final stretch.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

When the betting market opened for this game, Louisville was a 5.5-point favorite and has since moved to 6.5-point favorites across most sportsbooks. The best moneyline value for each team currently sits at +255 for NC State (FanDuel) and -280 for Louisville (Bet365). The total for this matchup has dipped slightly, moving from the opening number of 162.5 down to 161.5.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are very close in the KenPom ratings, with Louisville checking in at 19th with a net rating of +25.12, and NC State right behind at 24th with a net rating of +23.41. The Cardinals bring an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 124.2 (15th nationally), along with a 99.1 adjusted defensive efficiency rating (31st nationally). NC State, on the other hand, posts an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.1 (21st nationally), paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 99.7 (38th nationally).

Betting Trends

Dating back to 2020, these programs have faced off seven times, with NC State winning four of the seven matchups. In the ATS department, however, Louisville has covered in six of those seven meetings. The over has also been fairly prominent, hitting in four of the seven games.

NC State is 14-9-1 ATS this season, with a 5-2 record on the road, a 1-1 mark as an away underdog, playing their first game this season with just one day off, and a 7-3-1 record in ACC play. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 15 of 24 games this year. On the road, the over has hit in six of seven games, while splitting one game apiece as an away underdog. In ACC games, we’ve seen the over hit in eight of 11.

Louisville enters this matchup with a 12-11 ATS record, an 8-6 mark at home, an 8-5 record as a home favorite, a 1-1 record with one day off, and a 4-7 record in ACC play. The under has been more favorable in Louisville games, hitting in 13 of 23 contests. At home, the under has hit in nine of 14 games, as well as eight of 13 as a home favorite. In games with one day off, the under has hit in both instances for Louisville, along with seven of 11 ACC games.

Final Thoughts

This sets up as an exciting ACC battle, with both teams ranked in similar territory. The home-court advantage clearly favors Louisville, but NC State has been effective on the road recently. Because of that, I’d lean toward NC State covering in this spot, while staying away from the total in this matchup.