The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 34-18-1 (65.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 110-69-1 ATS (61.5%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (+7.5 at MIA), MEMPHIS (+8.5 at GSW)
* ATLANTA is on an 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS surge versus non-conference foe Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at MIN)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 63-49 SU and 61-50 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at MIN)
* ATLANTA is 135-101 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIN (o/u at 239.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 217-271 SU but 274-206-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+7.5 at NOP)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 58-49 SU and 62-43 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 at MIA)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 58-49 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* UTAH is 100-70 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MIA (o/u at 239.5)
* BROOKLYN is 18-8 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BKN (o/u at 219.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 149-108 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 87-19 SU and 64-39-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
* LA LAKERS are 35-12 SU and 33-14 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of OKLAHOMA CITY, 1 PLAY of LA LAKERS
* ORLANDO is 118-87 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-ORL (o/u at 219.5)
* PORTLAND is 30-30 SU but 41-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+3.5 vs PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
* PORTLAND is 72-39 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in PHI-POR (o/u at 228.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 35-33 SU and 25-40 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-8.5 vs MEM)
* GOLDEN STATE is 134-100 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 222.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 102-77 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-DEN (o/u at 239.5), MEM-GSW (o/u at 222.5), PHI-POR (o/u at 228.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) DETROIT at (502) CHARLOTTE* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Pistons-Hornets series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
(503) CHICAGO at (504) BROOKLYN* Home teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the CHI-BKN set
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs CHI)
(505) UTAH at (506) MIAMI* Over the total has converted in all five meetings between Utah and Miami in South Beach since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MIA (o/u at 239.5)
(507) MILWAUKEE at (508) ORLANDO* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Bucks-Magic set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ORL (o/u at 219.5)
(509) SACRAMENTO at (510) NEW ORLEANS* NEW ORLEANS is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 vs SAC)
(511) ATLANTA at (512) MINNESOTA* ATLANTA is on an 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS surge versus non-conference foe Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at MIN)
(513) CLEVELAND at (514) DENVER* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Cavaliers-Nuggets series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DEN (o/u at 239.5)
(515) OKLAHOMA CITY at (516) LA LAKERS* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Thunder-Lakers set in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-LAL (o/u at 223.5)
(517) MEMPHIS at (518) GOLDEN STATE* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven games between Memphis and Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 222.5)
(519) PHILADELPHIA at (520) PORTLAND* Over the total has converted in 10 of the last 13 in the PHI-POR non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-POR (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-106 (56%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 247-208 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 332-263 (55.8%).System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIL-ORL (spread -11.5, total 219.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of troubleNBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 186-108 SU but 135-155-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 108-137 ATS (44.1%) mark when not playing the next day.System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-4.5 at BKN)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerousNBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 110-69-1 ATS (61.5%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (+7.5 at MIA), MEMPHIS (+8.5 at GSW)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 173-80 SU and 143-106-4 ATS (57.4%) (sub-system: 82-29 SU and 66-41-4 ATS (61.7%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at LAL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 301-171 SU but just 196-263-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-11.5 vs MIL)
Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 385-333 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-ORL (o/u at 219.5)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 195-210 SU and 184-211-10 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-4.5 at BKN)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 193-167 SU and 198-152-10 ATS (56.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at ORL)
Unusual defensive performancesNBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 177-117 SU and 166-121-7 ATS (57.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 34-18-1 (65.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 49-16 SU and 44-19-2 ATS (69.8%) in their last 65 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 136-97-2 (58.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-NOP (o/u at 230.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 110-120 SU but 131-97-3 ATS (57.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 298-337-4 ATS (46.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 37-151 SU and 83-99-6 ATS (45.6%).System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs DET), SACRAMENTO (+7.5 at NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 72-96-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs DET)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UTAH, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, NEW ORLEANS, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, ORLANDO ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, MINNESOTA ML, DENVER ML, LA LAKERS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-MIA, SAC-NOP, OKC-LAL, MEM-GSW, PHI-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – SAC-NOP, ATL-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-BKN, MIL-ORL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-LAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+3.3)
2. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+2.1)
3. UTAH +7.5 (+1.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+1.3)
2. DENVER -1.5 (+0.6)
3. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+2.3)
2. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+1.6)
3. MILWAUKEE +11.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -1.5 (+4.0)
2. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+1.9)
3. MIAMI -7.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-NOP OVER 230.5 (+1.7)
2. MEM-GSW OVER 222.5 (+1.5)
3. CHI-BKN OVER 219.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-MIN UNDER 239.5 (-2.4)
2. PHI-POR UNDER 228.5 (-1.9)
3. MIL-ORL UNDER 219.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+3.1)
2. UTAH +7.5 (+2.4)
3. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+1.3)
2. DENVER -1.5 (+1.2)
3. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-GSW OVER 222.5 (+2.5)
2. SAC-NOP OVER 230.5 (+2.1)
3. DET-CHA OVER 222.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-DEN UNDER 239.5 (-2.4)
2. PHI-POR UNDER 228.5 (-1.8)
3. MIL-ORL UNDER 219.5 (-1.3)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Monday, February 9 appeared first on VSiN.
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