Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Wednesday, February 11 racing card at Aqueduct, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 1.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Tuskegee Airmen (First race)
Embed from Getty ImagesFirst Race
1. Tuskegee Airmen
2. Twenty Four Mamba
3. Big Hat Willie
TUSKEGEE AIRMEN looked good winning his career debut sprinting, before stretching out to win a stakes race in his second start as a 2yo; failed to be as effective in some tougher stakes races after that, and wound up eventually enduring a long layoff; has proven throughout his career to prefer sprinting, and returned from another layoff to earn a career-best figure going this distance last summer, before immediately stretching out again; turned back to score another victory last time; competitive with his good effort as he ships back to NY, and he should be a fair price in here. TWENTY FOUR MAMBA seems a long way removed from the form he was in back in 2024 when competitive with stakes horses, though one only has to go back to last summer to get to a couple of efforts that make him the one to beat in here; back at the level of the claim after a short freshening. BIG HAT WILLIE’s recent wins have come vs weaker, though he ran well to get a share of that victory two back when forced to chase down a moderate pace; faced much tougher than this in both losses surrounding that effort; contends with his good race.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Aqueduct card.
Second Race
1. Rogue Justice
2. Yolo
3. A. P. Slingshot
ROGUE JUSTICE turned back to sprint for her first try at this level last month, where she had no chance with class-dropping, blowout winner Purple and Gold over a speed-favoring track; unlikely to find a better spot than this one as she stretches back out with the top five dirt figures in the field. YOLO has earned her top figures making late runs on alternative surfaces; failed to land a serious blow after getting outrun early in her dirt debut when last seen in June; back from a layoff at the same level for a dangerous trainer. A. P. SLINGSHOT finished well without threat to a dominant winner in an improved effort two back; made a clear stretch lead going this distance last time, but was run down by Autumn’s Turn, who was making her 27th career start in that spot (though that mare did come right back to win again 11 days later); in good form now.
Third Race
1. Igniter
2. Hedge Ratio
3. Tartabull
IGNITER made a solid debut at Saratoga when chasing wide and finishing gamely for third in a race that has produced two stakes winners already; he improved out of that race to win his next start going a mile with a field-best 80 Beyer, then tried a tough running of the Grade 2 Remsen to no avail; into his available condition cutting back. The 1-2 finishers from HEDGE RATIO’s dirt debut returned to also complete the exacta in the aforementioned Remsen last November. HEDGE RATIO turned back for his next start, where he showed speed from the rail, and took a field all the way despite facing pressure throughout; Has the rail again; adds Lasix for the first start against other winners. TARTABULL failed to seriously threaten in a pair of tough MSW races when beginning his career at Saratoga; overcame a bit of trouble when handling Maryland-breds to break his maiden, then ran well again in stakes company last time; needs a forward move in the 3yo debut.
Fourth Race
1. Hagrid’s Flame
2. Three B’s
3. Shadow Dragon
HAGRID’S FLAME scored a convincing allowance win on this track early last year, and has been holding competitive form out of town since then, including a visually impressive win off the layoff last November; competitive with his good race shipping back in for Ness. Thought THREE B’S ran quite well without winning two and three starts back; held that form while handling this distance last time; going good now for Rice while just taking the next logical step. SHADOW DRAGON won twice over this track and trip early last year before getting a break, and he tried some tougher spots to no avail when brought back to the races last summer; just missed when dropped back to this level two back, then was up in class again last time off the claim; dangerous back at this level.
Fifth Race
1. Tampa Storm
2. The Last Delivery
3. Pilot Knob
TAMPA STORM pulled a tough trip when switched to dirt for his second career start; failed to land a blow behind a blowout winner last time, though he had little chance there while wide and outrun over a track that was carrying speed all day; one more chance with Lasix and blinkers going on. THE LAST DELIVERY debuted in a stakes race, then just missed with the top figure in this field when properly spotted for his second start; drops out of the MSW ranks with Lasix on. PILOT KNOB is a $50k purchase by Flameaway, from the female family of Grade 1 winners Hennessey and Pearl City; has been breezing right along for his underrated trainer.
Sixth Race
1. Aggregation
2. Jackson Heights
3. Lotsa Trouble
AGGREGATION went favored over three of these same rivals when dropped to this level two back, where he took over at the top of the stretch and was only caught late; tried moving up off the claim last time to no avail; drops back down. JACKSON HEIGHTS has overachieved a bit while overcoming a late-running style that always leaves him with a lot to do in his races; tried to stay closer early when dropped in class last time, and wound up getting outclosed by the eventual winner from behind; threat to rebound as he goes off the claim for Linda Rice. Like the top one, LOTSA TROUBLE is a one-run closer always looking for some pace to come after; put in a strong finish to close down Aggregation in a similar spot two back, then caught a wet track going shorter in that last one; off the claim again.
Seventh Race
1. Complex Charlie
2. Felonious
3. Pretty Boy Miah
COMPLEX CHARLIE made a promising debut while enduring a troubled trip in the mud last November; might have run the second-best race last time when forced to chase odds-on Crossingthechannel from the start, before weakening late; deserves one more chance. FELONIOUS has been involved on the pace going a mile in both dirt starts to date; cuts back for this, with blinkers going on. PRETTY BOY MIAH made an early move to go contest the pace, then engaged in a game stretch duel before coming away second-best in his career debut, earning a field-best 77 Beyer in the process; Lasix on for the second start.
Eighth Race
1. Soundbite
2. Khali Magic
3. Practical Lov
SOUNDBITE steadily improved out of a convincing maiden victory over this track and trip early last year; made it three in a row going a mile when scoring as an MTO off the layoff at Saratoga at the end of July, before moving up in class off the claim; was last seen chasing wide over a track that featured a strong rail; fits well here if ready off the layoff again. Twelve-time winner KHALI MAGIC always shows up and always brings speed; dropping for this while stretching back out to a distance that she handles; logical from a nice outside draw. PRACTICAL LOV really only has one race that makes her interesting here, though she landed in one tough allowance race after another following that impressive maiden win last summer with an 88 Beyer, and she had no chance with front-running Lucille Ball (103 Beyer) over that speed-favoring track last time.
Ninth Race
1. Solo Street
2. Kid Rich
3. Tinseltown
SOLO STREET was let go at a big price when debuting for this tag, but he was moving into position along the rail when he appeared to get intimidated by rivals to his outside, and wound up checking himself right out of the race; can have another chance with blinkers going on for a very good trainer. KID RICH went evenly as the favorite when making his dirt debut for twice this price last November; dropped a bit last time, and showed speed to no avail when favored again; drops one more time looking for the right spot, this time with Lasix on. TINSELTOWN was no match for better horses in his debut; dropped to this level for his second start and was more competitive, though still no match for fellow class-dropper Mo Spice; tries again.
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