Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, June 17 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.

Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.

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BEST BET: Track Mate (8th race)    

Eighth Race

1. Track Mate     

2. Verifire 

3. Furio

Obviously, if I’m taking TRACK MATE, I’m guessing at a pace meltdown – that’s the kind of race shape he needs, and I’m guessing it’s the kind that he gets. One of those horses you’d think should be better at 7f but actually punches harder at this 6f trip. Built crunched him last time with a very sharp showing. VERIFIRE was pretty much dead on the board at 2-1, facing just four foes last out – and pretty much ran to that. Not a slop lover? Think he’s a horse who looks a little better on paper than in reality, and I wonder what kind of trip he gets from an inside draw. All that said, if he takes a step forward second back from a long break, he’s the most likely winner. Despite his flashy work pattern, FURIO seems like a horse we know by now. I do like him cutting back in trip and the outside post should give him his best chance at winning – doubt he’s quite good enough (without several rivals failing to hit their best) but not ruling it out.

Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Churchill Downs card.

First Race

1. Couldyoubeloved      

2. Spotaway 

3. Pulstar

In April, some people claimed COULDYOUBELOVED out of a sprint and stretched her to a route. In May, these connections claimed her out of that route and shorten her up to this sprint – and I like this move a lot better! Not sure where the route idea even comes from – she pretty clearly doesn’t stay. It’s dirt – that’s the question. Forget about the last start – it’s her KEE race two back that throws off hints she’s not the same horse on dirt. One race sample? I’m giving her a second chance, especially for this barn in a race she fits on multiple levels. Almost took SPOTAWAY, who beat ‘loved by almost 4 lengths in the KEE race, and whose last three CD starts came on wet tracks – though whether that’s a + or a -, I can’t truly say. Problem is she’s rail drawn, wants the lead, probably can’t shake free from PULSTAR, though that filly, a steeeep class dropper, doesn’t really seem to want any part of six furlongs.

Second Race

1. Added Touch    

2. Ribadeo  

3. Bullet Baby

9-race maiden ADDED TOUCH has raced seven times on synthetic, once on turf, and only once on dirt – but Beyer-wise, if you want to go that direction, that lone dirt race yielded one of her top couple performances. In for half her previous low tag, $25K – but what happened to the pace she had in her second start? Just went through the motions last out at IND – was she bobbling on a “good” turf course? Class relief trumps all? Low confidence selections for sure. Stark, abrupt drop for 7-5 M/L fave RIBADEO, only out four times, no tag lower than $50K. Don’t “trust” anyone in this race – just trust her even less given the expected win price. BULLET BABY the one horse in the one-horse stable of her trainer, who also never has won a race. Ran well fresh in November. Doesn’t really seem to want to run this far.

Third Race

1. Ecosystem      

2. My Lucky Penny 

3. Lifes Reward

Am not saying they were not “trying” with ECOSYSTEM first time out – but he was 74-1, got into a very tough MSW won by a stakes-quality horse, and his run looked experience-building as much as anything. If he improves a notch, don’t see why he can’t contend for $50K. I liked MY LUCKY PENNY a bit last time off works, but he got hooked and cooked while racing on an inside lead. Halves the tag, favorable outside draw, 2nd-start improvement looming – maybe I got too clever by half not just taking this horse on top. I punched all kinds of numbers looking at Cox MSW droppers – sprints, routes, different venues, different tags – conclusion is the route favorites on this move have been more reliable, but the sample’s really not big enough to tell. Could go either way with LIFES REWARD – just don’t see any chance there’s a speck of value.

Fourth Race

1. Dolce Vino     

2. Divineintervention   

3. Fermi

Barn change, blinkers off, surface switch, class drop – it’s a whole new world for DOLCE VINO. The young trainer A Green, from the TAP tree, has shown capability (at least from the outside looking in), and I’ll guess all the changes lead to a second career win – even at a distance that might be pushing her limits. DIVINEINTERVENTION made two of the 10 EVD starts ever for trainer M Maker. Worked – knocked out the La-bred MSW win. Stark stylistic change from first race this cycle – regardless of how it happens, I see this horse vulnerable late going 6f rather than 5 1/2. FERMI is such a grinder – she’ll at least be staying on, where the top two could be struggling to see it out. Wish she’d shown a touch more two back for the $16K.

Fifth Race

1. Tarantino      

2. Kavod    

3. Two Eagles River

Don’t really “like” anyone in this race, though after too much pondering,TARANTINO started looking all right. Granted, he hasn’t won since October 2024 and hasn’t sprinted since August 2024 – and yet. His recent dirt running lines (toss the turf experiment last out) strongly suggest a horse who, with the right trip – namely, the one he should get here, outside pressing while in the clear — will benefit from the cutback. Corporate Power, who won the race T was in three back, captured the G2 Alysheba. Money Game, who beat him two back, looks graded-stakes class. KAVOD’s won three back came in a suspect group, and probably he “should” have held on two back if he really were meant to win at this level – the thing being, the race could turn out to be weak for the level. Had ***some*** run in the stretch last time when he did come up to a wall of traffic, though I didn’t see he was on the verge of busting through if he had a spot, nor did I see any earlier trouble referenced in chart. Could be the speed, but does he even want to lead? J Sharp-trained stablemate TWO EAGLES RIVER is a 7f specialist, yes, but, to me, he never fulfilled the decent promise he showed early in his career, nor has he evolved into a solid high-end claimer. Even considering favorable circumstances I liked CLASSIC CAR WASH’s last race, but what kind of trip is he getting here cutting back and breaking from the fence?

Sixth Race

1. Maximus Prime  

2. Royal Guard    

3. Comprehensive

Several plausible winners but gotta go with the longest price / best value among them, MAXIMUS PRIME, who did, if you want a marker of inherent quality, finish 1 1/4 lengths behind J Ruby Steaks-winner Fulleffort in the Battaglia. Seems like a horse who, despite short-sprint 2yo success, always has wanted about as much ground as he can find – which he finally gets here going 12f. Wide draw forced rider to head straight to fence last time, putting him far behind a moderate pace – he finished fastest in that 9f contest and galloped out well. ROYAL GUARD ran quite well, actually, in his SAR turf race after losing all kinds of ground both turns – he doesn’t quicken much, which is what this 12f race is for – does look like he’ll stay, and dam’s race record further hints he will. COMPREHENSIVE should make an easy lead, but will a race at a longer distance cure him of his habit of waiting on rivals and losing winnable races?

Seventh Race

1. Madeline’s Promise   

2. Wisconsin Gal  

3. Miss Elle

There’s no real dedicated speed entered other than MADELINE’S PROMISE – is she “good enough” to capitalize? Marginally. Like a wide draw better for a pace player in a race with more speed – does the rider decide to just take a clear pressing trip? Because I doubt she can win without taking full advantage of her speed and opening a lead. WISCONSIN GAL seems like a good candidate for a barn-change wake-up. Think there’s a little more there – at least there was earlier in her career – and the horse often has been over-entered, both in terms of quantity and quality of starts. MISS ELLE’s boom-boom back-to-back wins last fall stamp her as a potential winner, and out of the blue, the barn has gotten onto a little CD roll.

Ninth Race

1. Andthewinneris 

2. Tapit Shoes    

3. Beef Winslow

ANDTHEWINNERIS off 16 months, needed his first race back, and – as the class drop here suggests – faced meaningfully better competition last out and two back. I know he can do this middle distance, but don’t know that about the other horse strongly considered, TAPIT SHOES. Typically, trainer M Maker claims an older middle-distance turf horse and stretches them to 10f and beyond. Here, he makes the opposite move, cutting TS back from “turf marathons – which likely relates to the way he ran going distances like this over the TP Tapeta. Bad trip last time. Figures to get bet. BEEF WINSLOW looks a little light in the shorts based on the SoCal form? But this race looks, at best, average for the class level.

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