Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:

Here are my picks for Friday’s Olympic Hockey action.

Sweden vs. Finland

Sweden (-1.5, +140) vs Finland (+1.5, -166) – Total 5.5 (Under, -135)

6:10 am ET

The Swedes were tested by Italy in their opening game. Italy opened the scoring, and the game was tied at two until the late stages of the second period, when Sweden closed out the middle period up 3-2 and went on to a 5-2 win. Finland was upset in their opening game by the Slovaks 4-1 as Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky scored a pair of goals in the victory. 

The Swedes have won the last four and ten of the last twelve head-to-head meetings between the two European countries, in a rivalry comparable to Canada versus the United States. If past results between the two countries are an indicator of what to expect when they face off on Friday, we should see a low-scoring game. In the last four meetings and in thirteen of the last sixteen matchups, the teams have combined for five goals or fewer. There is a lot on the line in this preliminary round contest, as the winner will likely be in control of winning Group B and advancing to the medal round. 

It was a rough outing for Finland goalie Juuse Saros (Nashville Predators) in the Finns’ loss to Slovakia. I would anticipate Kevin Lankinen (Vancouver Canucks) getting the start in goal for Finland on Friday. Look for Jacob Markstrom to get the call for Sweden. Since I am not anticipating a lot of goals in this game, I will be conservative about wagering on anytime goal scorers. Check my Twitter (X) feed later tonight for goal props for this game.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Under 5.5 (-135) – 2 units

Slovakia vs. Italy

Slovakia (-3.5, +120) vs Italy (+3.5, -142) – Total 5.5 (Over, -142)

6:10 am ET

Slovakia shocked Finland in the opening game of the tournament. A win on Friday can put them in strong contention to win Group B. The Italians put a scare into Sweden in the first 36 minutes of their opening game, but the Swedes scored three unanswered goals and went on to a 5-2 victory. Italy’s starting goalie Damian Clara was forced to leave in the third period in the loss to Sweden with an apparent groin injury after making 46 saves and leaving with Italy down by just one goal. His status for Friday’s game is doubtful. Davide Fadani, who came on in relief, is likely to get the start.  

With goal differential a factor in seeding, I am interested in both the Slovakian team total Over 4.5 and the spread (-3.5).  Unfortunately, the goal props are not as enticing for Slovakia as they were in their opening game. Still, I will continue to ride Juraj Slafkovsky and Dalibor Dvorksy. For instance, Dvorsky was +320 to score on Wednesday, but on Friday, he is just +145.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Slovakia -3.5 (+120) – .50 units
Slovakia Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) – .50 units
Dalibor Dvorsky anytime goal (+145) – .25 units
Juraj Slafkovsky anytime goal (-125) – .25 units

Czech Republic vs. France

Czech Republic (-3.5, -110) vs France (+3.5, -110) – Total 6.5 (Under, -122)

10:40 am E.T.

Both countries are coming off shutout losses on Thursday and are still looking for their first goals of the tournament. Despite giving up five goals to Canada, Czech goalie Lukas Dostal (Anaheim) was strong between the pipes, but with games on consecutive days, look for either Karel Vejmelka (Utah) or Dan Vladar (Philadelphia) to get the start. We are not talking about a downgrade in goal for the Czechs of any consequence. I expect the Czechs, like Switzerland did on Thursday against France, to jump out early and will be on their first period team total Over 1.5. Outside of Alexandre Texier (Montreal), France does not have a current NHL player on their roster.

Olympic Predictions and Best Bets:
Czech Republic 1st period Team Total Over 1.5 (+120) – 1 unit
Czech Republic -3.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Martin Necas anytime goal (-120) – .25 units
Ondrej Palat anytime goal (+170) – .15 units
Czech Republic (-2.5)/Canada (-1.5) -109 – 1 unit

Canada vs. Switzerland

Canada (-2.5, -130) vs Switzerland (+2.5, +110) – Total 6.5 (Under, -142)

Embed from Getty Images

3:10 pm ET

Canada has run its Olympic win streak with NHL players to 11 consecutive games. They have also gone 224 minutes and 19 seconds in Olympic men’s hockey (with NHL players) without surrendering a goal after their 5-0 win over the Czech Republic on Thursday. The Swiss opened the tournament on Thursday with an easy 4-0 win over France, getting a pair of third period goals from Timo Meier to seal the victory. 

Friday will be a big step up for the Swiss after their opening game against France. I would expect Logan Thompson (Washington) to get the start for Canada, and we will likely see Akira Schmid (Vegas) get the start for Switzerland. The Canadian roster is so deep, and even though the Swiss roster is filled with NHL players, like most other countries not named United States, the Swiss will face multiple matchup problems. 

One other factor that works in Canada’s favor is the roster familiarity they have with one another after most of this group played together at the Four Nations Tournament last year. Connor McDavid (Edmonton) assisted on three of Canada’s five goals yesterday. I see no reason why he won’t have back-to-back multi-point games.   

Olympic Predictions and Best Bets:
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points (-105) – .50 units
Connor McDavid anytime goal (+160) – .15 units
Canada 1st period -1/2 goal (-125) – .50 units

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