Game: Miami Hurricanes vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: February 14th at 4:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

After getting boat-raced by Louisville, NC State looks to bounce back at home this Saturday against Miami. The Hurricanes are coming off a major win Tuesday night over UNC and will try to build on that momentum. Miami now sits at 19-5 overall with an 8-3 mark in ACC play. This will be another Quad 1 opportunity for the Hurricanes, who are 3-3 against Quad 1 opponents this season. Offensively, Miami has been strong, averaging 83.8 points per game (29th in Division I) while allowing 69.8 points per game (64th nationally).

NC State enters at 18-7 overall and 9-3 in the ACC. Hosting Miami makes this a Quad 2 matchup for the Wolfpack, a quadrant in which they’ve been highly effective at 8-1. The Wolfpack are averaging 85.3 points per game (20th in Division I) but have allowed 74.3 points per game (166th nationally). This matchup has the makings of another high-scoring affair for NC State, and they’ll hope for a much more competitive performance than what they showed Tuesday.

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Betting Overview

There hasn’t been significant line movement for this contest, as NC State opened as a 5.5-point favorite and remains there at most books. The moneyline has shifted slightly, with Miami moving from +220 to +205 and NC State adjusting from -270 to -235. As for the total, some sportsbooks are still holding at the opening number of 157.5, while others have ticked it up to 158.5.

KenPom Ratings

NC State currently ranks 26th in the KenPom ratings with a net rating of +21.88, while Miami sits 41st at +19.07. The Wolfpack carry an adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.4 (24th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.5 (44th nationally). Miami owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.7 (53rd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 99.6 (37th nationally).

Betting Trends

Miami has held a slight edge in this matchup over the last 10 meetings, winning six of 10 and covering the spread in seven of those contests. Totals have been evenly split, with five overs and five unders across that span.

The Hurricanes enter at 11-11-1 ATS, including a 4-2 record on the road and a 2-1 mark as a road underdog. They are 8-6-1 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and 4-6-1 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over overall, hitting in 15 of 23 games. On the road, the over has cashed in four of six, though the under has connected in two of three as a road underdog. With 2-3 days of rest, the over has hit in 10 of 15 games, as well as seven of 11 in conference action.

NC State comes in at 14-10-1 ATS, with a 6-5-1 record at home, all as favorites. The Wolfpack are 3-4 ATS with four or more days of rest and 7-4-1 ATS in ACC play. Totals have also leaned toward the over, hitting in 16 of 24 contests. At home, overs and unders have split evenly at six apiece. In games with four-plus days of rest, however, the under has cashed in four of seven. In conference matchups, the over has hit in nine of 12.

Final Thoughts

This shapes up as a tightly contested matchup between two strong offensive teams. Miami has felt slightly undervalued for much of the season, and that may be the case again here. While an outright win isn’t out of the question, the safer angle appears to be the Hurricanes covering the spread. Given both teams’ scoring profiles and recent totals trends, the over also warrants consideration.