Game: UTSA Roadrunners vs. Charlotte 49ers

Date: February 15th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPNU

Today marks Charlotte’s first game in a week as they look to bounce back from back-to-back losses. The 49ers will face the UTSA Roadrunners for the second time this season, a matchup Charlotte won convincingly the first time around. UTSA has struggled mightily this year, sitting at 4-20 overall with an 0-12 record in the American Athletic Conference. This will be a Quad 3 opportunity for the Roadrunners, a quadrant in which they are just 1-7. Offensively and defensively, UTSA has had significant issues, averaging only 66.0 points per game (343rd in Division I) while allowing 83.5 points per game (347th nationally).

Charlotte, coming off the week-long layoff, enters at 13-11 overall and 7-4 in conference play. This will mark the 49ers’ 10th Quad 4 game of the season, and they are a perfect 9-0 in that category. Charlotte is averaging 72.9 points per game (224th in Division I) while allowing 73.3 points per game (140th nationally). With extended rest and a favorable matchup against one of the conference’s weakest teams, expectations should be high for the 49ers in this spot.

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Betting Overview

The spread has remained steady at Charlotte -14.5. There is a wide range across sportsbooks on the moneyline, with UTSA priced as high as +1000 at some books and Charlotte around -1400. The total has largely held at 147.5, though a few sportsbooks have ticked it up slightly to 148.5.

KenPom Ratings

There is a substantial gap between these programs in the KenPom rankings. Charlotte sits 177th with a net rating of -1.12, while UTSA ranks 348th with a net rating of -20.05. The 49ers carry an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.2 (113th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 113.3 (270th nationally). UTSA owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 98.2 (340th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 118.2 (338th nationally).

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these programs, Charlotte has held a slight edge straight up, winning six of 10, while UTSA has had more success against the spread, covering in six of those contests. Totals have been evenly split, with five overs and five unders.

UTSA enters at 6-16 ATS, including a 2-9 mark on the road, all as underdogs. The Roadrunners are 3-9 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and 3-9 ATS in American Conference play. Overall, totals have split evenly at 11 overs and 11 unders. However, on the road, the over has been the stronger trend, hitting in eight of 11 games. With 2-3 days of rest, the over has cashed in eight of 12 contests, and it has also hit in eight of 12 conference matchups.

Charlotte sits at 12-11 ATS, with a 7-5 record at home and a 6-3 mark as a home favorite. The 49ers are 4-5 ATS with four or more days of rest and 6-5 ATS in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 12 of 23 games overall. At home, the over has cashed in seven of 12, as well as five of nine as a home favorite. With four-plus days of rest, the over has hit in five of nine games. In American Conference play, the over has connected in seven of 11 contests.

Final Thoughts

This matchup could be telling for how Charlotte closes the regular season. A sluggish performance against a struggling UTSA squad would raise concerns, but a focused, dominant showing would build confidence heading into the stretch run. Expect Charlotte to play with urgency and respond after the extended break. The 49ers should be able to handle business and cover the 14.5-point spread in this spot. The total, however, feels less reliable and is likely best avoided.