Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Tuesday, February 17 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3 for this Mardi Gras card!
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Canal Street (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Canal Street
2. Cool Lucky Lady
3. Sweet Alexis
Yes, CANAL STREET won her turf debut two starts back by a wide margin, and, yes, she stepped up in class last out, didn’t have a great trip, hooked a surprisingly sharp front-running winner, and still ran on for a solid second — but I didn’t think during those two races she was really a turf horse, and I still don’t think so! Her two very best races were the dirt routes late in the last FG meet, and her two dirt races this form cycle were sprints, the first against open company at KEE, the second against an LA-bred beast who people were talking about as close to a million-dollar valuation after her most recent romp. COOL LUCKY LADY, CS’s Bret Calhoun-trained stablemate, has only raced in blinkers four times and only in her last start got out to a route of ground. Well, she was improving in blinkers and improved even more running long – but she’ll need another serious forward step to threaten Canal Street. SWEET ALEXIS, racing first off the claim, ran on turf last out quite likely because there was no other race for her and connections wanted to get a run into her. Back to dirt as the likely second choice here – she’s fine, doesn’t do a ton for me.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Tuesday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Musical Band
2. Remi
3. Top Notch Protocol
Line that November dirt sprint where MUSICAL BAND finished third behind a truly standout winner and a runner-up well above average for the class level alongside the better turf route efforts, where the horse seemed to stay two turns, and I think in this La-bred dirt-route maiden that Musical Band can take down likely favorite REMI. Yes, would have liked to see Remi not go quite as fast on the lead last time, and maybe the first route will do him some good, but I had doubts going into the race that the horse would stay and his performance did little to change my mind. TOP NOTCH PROTOCOL will go forward and chunks along decently enough in races like this, but I can’t see him beating both MB and Remi.
Second Race
1. Mister Banderas
2. Wholelottadeal
3. Classical Knight
Was with MISTER BANDERAS when he galloped at 1-5 on Dec. 18, against him when at odds of 1-2 he finished second Jan. 24, and I’m back on him here. He ran into a sharp front-running winner last time and got into a tight spot in the homestretch, though don’t think that alone got him beat. He’s almost always run farther but I like the horse cutting back to 5 1/2 with an outside draw – think that really might suit him. Guess if you wanted to say five starts into a strong form cycle he’s going to take a step back that I wouldn’t argue strenuously against, but my feeling is he’s hit this level, has stabilized, and is in a good spot to hit his mark. Helps there are no Free Scrims in here, too, though who knows what WHOLELOTTADEAL might be. Interesting he took very little betting in his summer debut at EVD – and ran to his price. Was second choice coming back from long break for second start, at Delta, and he whooped the odds-on favorite, coming inside him before the turn and drawing well clear even before he belatedly switched leads. Looks like a robust specimen. Gotta go from the rail. CLASSICAL KNIGHT does not have the high-end of the top pick at all but also might benefit from this half-furlong cut-back.
Fourth Race
1. Cool Customer
2. Mount Vernon
3. Maximum Effort
Three sprints to start his career for COOL CUSTOMER, and since he’s clearly bred to be a route horse, looking at that turf-sprint comeback run last out at a stepping-stone to this stretchout. Last time he broke slowly from the rail, lacked speed, came with a pretty nice homestretch run. Set to outrun his odds. No work video for MOUNT VERNON but there sure are plenty of them. This barn annually has the best young grass horses at Fair Grounds; I expect this one to race competitively at an unappealing price. MTO MAXIMUM EFFORT probably doesn’t get to run but will fit well if he does. As you can see, I’m not on the horses coming out of R6 on 1/19. Citatus, who did best of them, decent but didn’t catch the eye.
Embed from Getty ImagesFifth Race
1. Twenty Two Black
2. Flash of Chaos
3. Fake Smart
While TWENTY TWO BLACK shows a $100K purchase price and here in his fourth start gets dropped from MSWs to $50K, I don’t mind it. He’s not exactly been knocking on the door with straight maidens and he cost too much to qualify for one of those restricted maidens, so what are ya gonna do? What did happen on 1/24, his first race in a couple months, was that he showed not only much better speed, but much more generally. The time’s ripe for a class drop and stretchout that I think he’ll handle well. FLASH OF CHAOS has improved this winter at Fair Grounds (and / or with Lasix) but ran his best race yet last time and wasn’t especially close to winning. He’s a meh for me at the expected short price. Carson Street is a good colt, third in the Lecomte after setting a strong pace, and it was he behind whom FAKE SMART finished a distant second two back in his only dirt-route try.
Sixth Race
1. Sy B
2. Exclusive Star
3. Queen Wilhelmina
SY B is a 1-8 5yo who often falls short even when she fires, but I think fresh is the time to get this horse and this marks her first out since June. In that last start she ran into the B Cox-trained Destino d’Oro, who has won two Gulfstream grass stakes this winter. Might need some pace help, however, and EXCLUSIVE STAR should get first run on her and obviously holds a major recency edge. Exclusive Star two back ran into less talented but capable Cox turf horse, Hear the Queen, and last out made a good run at Lady Iva, who has been going good all winter. She’s got very good form, for sure, but I’d be a little concerned at this point about slight regression. QUEEN WILHELMINA only won a $30K maiden-claimer last out — and was a 50-1 chance! – but geez, that was a pretty serious move in her turf debut. Turf ceiling unknown.
Seventh Race
1. Abilene
2. Love and Trust
3. Tap to Open
Thought ABILENE was landing in a very winnable spot as an MTO who got into the off-turf Jan. 10 race, and she did turn in a debut performance that would have won most such races. She happened to encounter, however, Powered by Family, who had an experience edge, got a better trip coming from farther behind a strong enough pace, and might be a really good horse (was to run Saturday in the Rachel Alexandra). This is no easy spot, but I see her improving a couple lengths and graduating. That said, I liked LOVE AND TRUST quite a bit in her debut, and it’s not impossible she just needs a route of ground to show her best. Had enough speed for that sprint but very much bred like a two-turn horse. TAP TO OPEN sat back rather than push tempo and made one late run to nab Love and Trust for third on Jan. 17. I’d give her less upside than either of the top two on the day – though I could be entirely wrong there.
Eighth Race
1. Shining Star
2. Party Pauline
3. Big Trouble
SHINING STAR was a dirt horse in Chile, and who knows, maybe now that her talent’s been unlocked again, maybe she still can be a dirt horse. What we do know – she’s a really sharp turf horse. Her IND grass debut, albeit against modest stock, was even better than it looks on paper. Better foes here at FG in the N2X and she totally bossed those horses. Shes’ got speed but she’s classy and rate-able, too. Still has room to grow. PARTY PAULINE accidentally got clicked into the top three and press time is upon us, too late to make a change for DRF print. The intended second pick was LOTSANDLOTSOFCANDY, who is very fast, very good, and a very likely winner if this were to rain onto dirt. Am not at all ruling her out for turf, either, as sire Twirling Candy is a major grass influence. Just don’t know how her excellent dirt speed’s gonna translate to turf, but it might well. BIG TROUBLE is a very capable turf sprinter in her own right, but I haven’t seen a race from here that I think can topple Shining Star.
Ninth Race
1. A Lotta Shance
2. My Touch
3. Dirty Straight Up
I have watched no works and have no intel on him, but gotta take a shot with first-timer A LOTTA SHANCE. I mean, look at that string of drills! Twice worked 47s at CDT, and that is rollllling for that surface. Fast works do not a fast horse make, but this one doesn’t figure to take much betting at all. Another firster, MY TOUCH, probably will take action with leading rider J Ortiz named. Again, I haven’t seen the works, and I do not call works I haven’t seen “good,” but there are at least quick ones. DIRTY STRAIGHT UP came to life going turf to dirt second out and can finish better this time than last.
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