Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: February 17th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Well, Tuesday certainly presents an entertaining matchup. We get a showdown between the two premier state schools in North Carolina, as the UNC Tar Heels take on the NC State Wolfpack. The Tar Heels handled their first game without Caleb Wilson quite well, defeating Pitt by 14 points. With that win on Saturday, North Carolina eclipsed the 20-win mark and now sits at 20-5 overall, including an 8-4 record in ACC play.

This will be a tougher test than Pitt, as it marks a Quad 1 matchup for the Heels, a quadrant in which they are 5-5 so far this season. UNC is averaging 81.8 points per game (45th in Division I) while allowing 70.4 points per contest (75th nationally).

NC State, on the other hand, was not as fortunate Saturday, dropping a game they controlled late to Miami. After that gut-wrenching loss, the Wolfpack now stand at 18-8 on the season, with a 9-4 mark in the ACC. This is also a Quad 1 opportunity for NC State, which is currently just 3-6 against Quad 1 opponents. The Wolfpack enter averaging 85.0 points per game (20th in Division I) while surrendering 74.4 points per contest (170th nationally).

There will be plenty of energy in this matchup with significant implications on the line, but the sense of urgency may rest more with NC State as they look to avoid a three-game skid.

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Betting Overview

NC State opened as a 6.5-point favorite but has been bet up to -7 or -7.5 depending on the sportsbook. On the moneyline, the best price for the Tar Heels is +275 (FanDuel), while NC State can be found at -300 (Bet365 and BetMGM). The total has remained steady across the market, opening and holding at 158.5.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are nearly identical in the KenPom ratings, with UNC sitting 28th nationally with a +21.78 net rating, while NC State ranks 31st at +21.63. The Tar Heels own an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.3 (24th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.6 (43rd nationally).

NC State, meanwhile, holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.7 (21st nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 101.1 (47th nationally). With both teams leaning heavily on their offensive strengths, this matchup projects to feature plenty of scoring opportunities.

Betting Trends

UNC has controlled this series in recent years, winning eight of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2021. The Tar Heels have also held a slight edge against the spread, covering in six of those 10 matchups. As for the total, the over and under have split evenly, cashing 5 times apiece over the last 10 contests.

The Tar Heels enter this matchup with a 14-11 ATS record, including a 3-4 mark on the road and a 2-1 record as a road underdog. They are 6-7 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 6-6 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under overall, hitting in 14 of 25 games. However, in road contests, the over has been more favorable, connecting in five of seven games, including two of three as a road underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has hit in seven of 13, while in ACC games, the over has cashed in 8 of 12.

NC State sits at 14-11-1 ATS this season, posting a 6-6-1 record at home, all as favorites. The Wolfpack are 10-4-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 7-5-1 ATS in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 16 of 26 games overall. At home, however, the under has connected in seven of 13 contests. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has cashed in 11 of 15 games, as well as 9 of 13 in ACC action.

Final Thoughts

This matchup carries significant weight for NC State, particularly regarding its postseason outlook. Letting another opportunity slip away — especially one they are favored to win — could make things far more difficult down the stretch. I expect the Wolfpack to respond with urgency, cover the spread, and help push this game over the total.