Game: Michigan Wolverines vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: February 21st at 6:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

We’ll see College GameDay make the trip to Washington, D.C., for a regular-season showdown between the Michigan Wolverines and the Duke Blue Devils. It’s rare to get a non-conference heavyweight matchup this late in the season, as most teams are deep into conference play, but this easily feels like a Final Four — or even national championship — preview.

Michigan has arguably been the most impressive team in the country, entering this matchup at 25-1 with just one blemish on its résumé. This is clearly a Quad 1 opportunity for both programs, and the Wolverines are a perfect 10-0 against Quad 1 opponents. Offensively, Michigan has been elite, averaging 90.6 points per game (2nd in Division I) while allowing 68.8 points per contest (45th nationally).

Duke has responded well after just its second loss of the season, winning three straight games heading into this matchup. The Blue Devils sit at 24-2 overall and are 10-2 in Quad 1 games, looking to hand Michigan its first Quad 1 defeat. Duke leans slightly more on the defensive end compared to Michigan, averaging 83.0 points per game (37th in Division I) while allowing just 63.2 points per contest (3rd nationally).

Saturday evening can’t come soon enough, as two of the nation’s top teams go head-to-head in what should be an early March-type atmosphere.

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Betting Overview

There is some variation across sportsbooks for this matchup. The line opened around Michigan -2.5 at most books, with some holding steady at that number, others dropping to -1.5, and a few climbing to -3. The moneyline has remained relatively consistent, with the best value for Michigan at -140 (Bet365) and Duke at +128 (FanDuel).

As for the total, most books have stayed at the opening number of 148.5, though a few have ticked up slightly to 149.

KenPom Ratings

These teams sit neck and neck in the KenPom rankings at No. 1 and No. 2, with Michigan holding the top spot at a +39.28 net rating, while Duke follows at +36. Michigan owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 128.2 (4th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.0 (1st nationally).

Duke counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 126.8 (7th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 90.1 (2nd nationally). Both teams are incredibly balanced on both ends of the floor, setting the stage for what should be an absolute battle.

Betting Trends

The Michigan Wolverines enter this matchup at 14-12 ATS, including a 3-1 record on neutral floors, a 6-10 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and a 7-3 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have leaned toward the under overall, cashing in 15 of 26 games. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly at two apiece. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has hit in 11 of 16 contests, and in non-conference play, it has connected in six of 10.

The Duke Blue Devils also sit at 14-12 ATS, posting a 2-2 record on neutral sites, a 9-8 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and a 3-3 record with four or more days off. Totals have similarly favored the under, hitting in 18 of 26 games. In neutral-site matchups, the under has cashed in three of four contests. With four-plus days of rest, totals have split three apiece. Against non-conference opponents, the under has connected in nine of 12 games.

Final Thoughts

While this game won’t impact either team’s conference standing, it serves as a valuable measuring-stick matchup against elite non-conference competition as March approaches. I expect Duke, with the added rest advantage, to be sharp and focused in this spot. Ultimately, I see the Blue Devils winning outright, with the under also coming through in what should be a tightly contested battle.