The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 24, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 95-41 SU and 82-53-1 ATS (60.7%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at BKN)

* Road teams are on an extended 17-5 ATS run in the OKC-TOR non-conference series, dating back to 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at TOR)

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 112-72-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+10.5 vs PHI)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 17-3 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-NOP (o/u at 227.5), ORL-LAL (o/u at 230.5) 

Embed from Getty Images

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 91-44 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-TOR (o/u at 216.5), MIA-MIL (o/u at 226.5), MIN-POR (o/u at 235.5), DAL-BKN (o/u at 226.5), BOS-PHX (o/u at 206.5) 

* ATLANTA is 136-103 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 238.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 20-8 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-BKN (o/u at 226.5)

* CLEVELAND is just 13-16 SU and 7-22 ATS (24.1%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs NYK) 

* CHICAGO is 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS (15.4%) in its last 13 games
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+8.5 vs CHA) 

* CHARLOTTE is 151-109 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-CHI (o/u at 233.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 0-8 SU and ATS (0%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 218-275 SU but 276-209-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at NOP) 

* NBA teams playing on road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 31-14 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last two seasons
* GOLDEN STATE is 136-100 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in GSW-NOP (o/u at 227.5) 

* INDIANA is 14-25 SU and 9-29-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
* PHILADELPHIA is 13-20 SU and 14-19 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since November 2024
Trends Match: 1 FADE of INDIANA, 1 FADE of PHILADELPHIA 

* PHILADELPHIA is 25-9 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-IND (o/u at 233.5) 

* MIAMI is 15-6 SU and 16-5 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since June 2023
* MIAMI is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at MIL) 

* MILWAUKEE is 23-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-MIL (o/u at 226.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 90-19 SU and 67-39-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at TOR)

* LA LAKERS are 36-14 SU and 34-16 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs ORL) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 27-12 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* ORLANDO is 119-89 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-LAL (o/u at 230.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 29-18 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* BOSTON is 18-4 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since June 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-PHX (o/u at 206.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) PHILADELPHIA at (502) INDIANA* Home teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the PHI-IND series since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+10.5 vs PHI)

(503) DALLAS at (504) BROOKLYN* DALLAS is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to Barclays Center
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at BKN)

(505) OKLAHOMA CITY at (506) TORONTO
* Road teams are on an extended 17-5 ATS run in the OKC-TOR non-conference series, dating back to 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at TOR)

(507) WASHINGTON at (508) ATLANTA* Over the total is 5-1 in the Wizards-Hawks divisional rivalry since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 238.5)

(509) NEW YORK at (510) CLEVELAND* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Knicks-Cavs series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CLE (o/u at 232.5)

(511) GOLDEN STATE at (512) NEW ORLEANS* Under the total is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between GSW and NOP in New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-NOP (o/u at 227.5)

(513) MIAMI at (514) MILWAUKEE* MILWAUKEE is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight games with Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+6.5 vs MIA)

(515) CHARLOTTE at (516) CHICAGO* Under the total is 6-1 in the Hornets-Bulls set at the United Center since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-CHI (o/u at 233.5)

(517) BOSTON at (518) PHOENIX* BOSTON is 6-1 SU and ATS versus Phoenix since New Year’s Eve 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHX)

(519) ORLANDO at (520) LA LAKERS* Underdogs are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the ORL-LAL cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at LAL)

(521) MINNESOTA at (522) PORTLAND* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Timberwolves-Trail Blazers  divisional set at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-POR (o/u at 236.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 182-68 SU and 146-103-1 ATS (58.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 136-108 SU and 138-103-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 95-41 SU and 82-53-1 ATS (60.7%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 13-44 SU and 23-32-2 ATS (41.8%) in their last 57 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+7.5 vs BOS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-108 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 248-210 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 339-266 (56%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-IND (spread +10.5, total 233.5)
UNDER – WSH-ATL (spread -13.5, total 238.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 23-13 SU and 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) since early-March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-13.5 vs WSH) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-21 SU and 27-12 ATS (69.2%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+6.5 vs MIN) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of troubleNBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 189-111 SU but 138-158-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 110-140 ATS (44%) mark when not playing the next day.System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-6.5 at POR) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerousNBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 112-72-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+10.5 vs PHI) 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quicklyNBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 159-60 SU and 129-88-2 ATS (59.4%) in their last 219 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs ORL) 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favoriteNBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 178-81 SU and 147-108-4 ATS (57.6%) (sub-system: 84-29 SU and 68-41-4 ATS (62.4%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 at POR)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hostsNBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 336-259 SU but 269-311-15 ATS (46.4%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): TORONTO (-1.5 vs OKC) 

Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 390-337 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-NOP (o/u at 227.5), MIN-POR (o/u at 236.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 338-353 SU and 312-371-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-10.5 at IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at TOR), NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs GSW), CHARLOTTE (-8.5 at CHI) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 197-214 SU and 187-214-10 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-10.5 at IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at TOR), GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at NOP), CHARLOTTE (-8.5 at CHI) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back wellNBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 197-169 SU and 201-155-10 ATS (56.5%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX (+7.5 vs BOS), PORTLAND (+6.5 vs MIN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 112-127 SU but 134-103-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+8.5 vs CHA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 304-346-4 ATS (46.8%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+8.5 vs CHA) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS, MIAMI, CHARLOTTE, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, BOSTON, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is an over 4% improvement on the overall majority figures, netting +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS, MIAMI, CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO ML, ATLANTA ML, CLEVELAND ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-IND, WSH-ATL, MIN-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-BKN, MIN-POR, ORL-LAL
UNDER – PHI-IND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-TOR, BOS-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-ATL 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+2.4)
2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+2.2)
3. CHICAGO +8.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI -6.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +1.5 (+2.3)
2(tie). NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+1.6)
CHICAGO +8.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -10.5 (+1.9)
2. ATLANTA -13.5 (+1.4)
3. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-MIL OVER 226.5 (+3.0)
2. CHA-CHI OVER 232.5 (+1.3)
3. OKC-TOR OVER 216.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1(tie). WSH-ATL UNDER 238.5 (-1.7)
BOS-PHX UNDER 206.5 (-1.7)
ORL-LAL UNDER 230.5 (-1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +6.5 (+2.9)
2. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+2.7)
3. PHOENIX +6.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -2.5 (+1.4)
2. MIAMI -6.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-MIL OVER 226.5 (+4.2)
2. WSH-ATL OVER 238.5 (+3.0)
3. ORL-LAL OVER 230.5 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-PHX UNDER 206.5 (-2.0)
2. NYK-CLE UNDER 232.5 (-1.8)
3. GSW-NOP UNDER 227.5 (-1.4)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Tuesday, February 24 appeared first on VSiN.