I only have a few plays for the NBA slate on Friday, February 27. So, while I normally break things down with two separate articles, I’m bringing everything under one roof instead of splitting up sides/totals and player props — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Friday.

RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!

NBA Best Bets Today

Nuggets +8.5 (-110) vs. Thunder

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Nuggets at Thunder – 9:30 pm ET

The Nuggets remain without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, who are both dealing with hamstring injuries. Denver also has Jamal Murray listed as questionable tonight, as the star guard is dealing with an illness. All of that, combined with the fact that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns from injury this evening, plays into the Thunder being massive home favorites in this game. However, Oklahoma City is still playing without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, who are two of the better on-ball creators on this team. That said, if the Nuggets can keep Gilgeous-Alexander in check, there’s really no reason they can’t keep this game close. Plus, Gilgeous-Alexander could very well struggle tonight, as it’s never easy coming back from a lengthy layoff.

The Nuggets are also coming off a strong defensive performance, holding the Celtics, the league’s second-best offense, to 84 points. If they can bring some of that same intensity here, I trust Nikola Jokic and the offense to create just enough against this elite Thunder defense.

Denver is also 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread when facing teams that allow 108.5 or fewer points per game since David Adelman became head coach. The Nuggets are also 8-4 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 70% or higher in that span, and they’re 10-4 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points. This is a team you can trust as a big ‘dog.

NBA Player Props Today

James Harden Over 7.5 Assists (-115) vs. Pistons

Cavaliers at Pistons – 7:00 pm ET

Since arriving in Cleveland, Harden is averaging 8.0 assists, 13.7 potential assists, and 9.7 adjusted assists per game. He’s really thriving as a playmaker, and I think he’ll continue to do good work as a passer over the next couple of weeks. With Harden dealing with an injured right thumb, he might look to be a distributor a little more than usual. Well, tonight he’ll be playing without Donovan Mitchell, meaning one less player — and a damn good one — that will finish plays for him. However, it also means that Harden will have a significant on-ball role if he sheds his questionable tag. Well, if Harden has the ball in his hands a ton tonight, I think he’ll deliver eight assists — even against an elite defensive team.

Kevin Porter Jr. Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-124) vs. Knicks

Knicks at Bucks – 8:00 pm ET

Over the last nine games, Porter Jr. is averaging 21.9 points, 7.9 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game. He’s absolutely killing as the No. 1 option, and his play is keeping the Bucks afloat without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Well, I like Porter to have another strong game tonight. The Knicks are a miserable defensive team when looking at the way they defend PnR ball handlers. They also struggle to contain good pull-up shooters. Porter can take advantage of both of those things, and he has now proven to be extremely reliable when it comes to dishing and rebounding. This is also a play in which our OptaAI player prop projections have a slight edge to Over on 30.5.

Additional Plays (Late Adds, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)

Nothing yet.

2025-26 NBA Record: 359-345 (+4.64 units)

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