Game: UAB Blazers vs. Charlotte 49ers

Date: March 4th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

The Charlotte 49ers had a close call on Sunday against the Florida Atlantic Owls, ultimately falling in overtime by just one point. This evening, they return home to host the UAB Blazers in what should be another tightly contested matchup.

UAB enters this game with an 18-11 overall record and a 9-7 mark in American Conference play. Facing Charlotte on the road makes this a Quad 3 matchup for the Blazers, a quadrant in which they are an even 6-6 this season. Through 29 games, UAB is averaging 77.7 points per game (109th in Division I) while allowing 73.8 points per contest (155th nationally).

Charlotte will hope Sunday’s loss was simply a bump in the road, as the 49ers had appeared to be trending in the right direction with the conference tournament approaching. That defeat moved Charlotte to 15-14 overall and 9-7 in conference play, making this matchup important for American Conference tournament seeding.

This will also be a Quad 3 game for Charlotte, and the 49ers are an even 4-4 against teams in that quadrant this season. Charlotte is averaging 73.4 points per game (219th in Division I) while allowing 73.7 points per contest (153rd nationally). With both teams jockeying for conference tournament positioning, this has the makings of a physical, competitive battle.

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Betting Overview

The spread has remained unchanged since opening, with UAB still listed as a 1.5-point favorite across most sportsbooks. The best moneyline value currently sits around -120 for UAB (Bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings) and +106 for Charlotte (FanDuel).

The total has also held steady at its opening number of 144.5.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom rankings, UAB sits 124th nationally with a +3.85 net rating, while Charlotte ranks 183rd with a -1.42 net rating.

UAB carries an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 109.1 (171st nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 105.3 (94th nationally). Charlotte, meanwhile, posts an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 113.0 (108th nationally) but struggles defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 114.4 (274th nationally).

With contrasting efficiency profiles, these teams should match up fairly evenly on paper.

Betting Trends

The UAB Blazers have held a slight edge in this matchup recently, winning five of the last nine meetings against the Charlotte 49ers. Against the spread, however, Charlotte has been more successful, covering in six of those contests. Totals have leaned toward the over in this series as well, hitting in six of the nine matchups.

UAB enters this game with a 14-14 ATS record, including a strong 7-4 mark on the road. The Blazers are 1-3 as a road favorite, 12-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest, and 6-10 ATS in American Conference play. Totals have favored the under in UAB games this season, hitting in 17 of 28 overall. On the road, the under has connected in six of 11 contests. In games as a road favorite, totals have split evenly at two apiece. With 2–3 days off, the under has hit in 13 of 20 games, including 10 of 16 in conference play.

Charlotte comes into this matchup at 16-12 ATS, holding a 9-6 record at home and a 2-2 mark as a home underdog. The 49ers are 10-6 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 10-6 in the American Conference. Totals have leaned toward the over in Charlotte games this season, hitting in 17 of 28 contests. At home, the over has connected in nine of 15 games, including three of four as a home underdog. In games with 2–3 days off, the over has hit in 10 of 16, and in conference play, it has cashed in 11 of 16.

Final Thoughts

This matchup presents a solid opportunity for both teams as the regular season winds down. With conference tournament positioning on the line, expect both sides to bring a high level of intensity.

I don’t have a ton of confidence either way in this one, but I would slightly lean toward Charlotte winning outright given the home-court advantage. As for the total, the conflicting trends between these teams make it difficult to trust either side, so I would stay away from it.