The spotlight shines on Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, where a compelling 12-race card is headlined by the Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. The 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds carries Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-25-15-10-5 to the top five finishers) and posts as Race 11 at 5:35 p.m. ET. (You can view the leading Kentucky Derby contenders here.)
Daily Racing Form analyst Kenny Peck has the full card covered at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. He makes the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby his featured race of the day, with the Grade 3 Florida Oaks — Race 10 at 5:00 p.m. ET — also drawing his attention as the source of his Best Bet of the card.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Featured Race: Tampa Bay Derby (Race 11)
Embed from Getty ImagesEleventh Race
1. The Puma 
2. Powershift     
3. Further Ado
THE PUMA is a maiden but he is a threat to win the Tampa Bay Derby if he gets the right trip, as his Beyers put him in the mix and he comes off a deceptively good effort in the Sam F Davis; there is speed to his inside and out and that should mean he’s well set up, with a stalking trip just off the pacesetters allowing him to get the jump on the closers. POWERSHIFT is another maiden, and though he failed despite that same type of trip in his first career start, the resulting Beyer obviously makes him a huge threat despite this move into stakes company in his second career try; will be tough to stave off late if he gets that same kind of favorable setup, and faster early splits. FURTHER ADO hasn’t been out since late November, when he won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, which came on the heels of a 20-length maiden score; trainer Brad Cox excels with last-out winners returning from a layoff and he does loom the one to beat, though the layoff combined with the fact that this field contains several foes with upside makes taking a short price mildly unpalatable.
BEST BET: Dandona (10th race)
Tenth Race
1. Dandona  
2. Time to Dream  
3. Bramble Blast
DANDONA was third in her first and only start on the grass in her latest, finishing behind BACKGAMMON in the process, but she impressed in defeat in that race, closing nicely despite racing behind slow fractions set by that rival; this Florida Oaks Stakes promises to present a much better race flow for her and she can take a big step forward if she gets a faster pace to chase. TIME TO DREAM makes her seasonal debut after failing to threaten in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and she may well be the one to beat thanks to two stakes wins in 2025, complete with decent figures; the respite is a bit of a concern and she figures to be well bet but she clearly has to be respected given her back class, and of course the connections. BRAMBLE BLAST stretches out from sprints, and she may be the right value play in exotics, as her lone route try was better than it may look. LAIGINA is widest, but she is also quick from the gate; will be prominent from the start.
Here are Kenny’s thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Tampa Bay Downs card.
First Race
1. Mona L   
2. Vesper Chicks  
3. Mama Drama
MONA L turns back from a route and also switches back to the main track, two decent angles for high-percentage trainer Juan Arriagada; class-dropper has speed but can also rate, and she should fall into a good trip behind a contested pace in this opener. VESPER CHICKS is easy to like after running 2nd in her latest under similar conditions, earning the best Beyer of her career; obvious threat on the strength of that running line. MAMA DRAMA is down in price after running 3rd against richer in her last two; threat if able to relax some and make one run.
Second Race
1. Ace From Space 
2. Gun Policy     
3. Resolute Will
ACE FROM SPACE is out of a multiple stakes winner who posted four career wins, albeit all in routes, and she produced Good Magic, who was 2nd in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and earned nearly $3 million in a stellar racing career; the pedigree suggests he’ll ultimately be best going long, but he’s seemingly been showing speed in the mornings. GUN POLICY sports a couple of breezes that indicate he has some ability, and he could be overlooked some in the wagering; dam won eight races, including her own debut and a couple of stakes races, earning nearly $450K. RESOLUTE WILL debuts for trainer Chad Brown, making him a threat by default, given the barn’s 40% strike rate with firsters at Tampa over the past five years; first starter out of the dam, who won her own bow and went on to win a couple of stakes.
Third Race
1. Mystic Lake    
2. My Magic Wand  
3. St. Olaf Rose
MYSTIC LAKE is going to be tough to catch if she can shake loose in the opening stages on the move from six furlongs to seven, coming off an impressive score in the Minaret Stakes when she put away other speeds in the race and still drew off; now seems to land in a race with a softer race flow and though this is longer she is proven at the distance. MY MAGIC WAND may be the top pick’s main pace rival; she’s another exiting short races, but she has proven she can rate just off the lead if need be, and she could be the one to get first run on that rival. ST. OLAF ROSE meets better while in top form; would be one of the main beneficiaries of a duel between the top pair.
Fourth Race
1. Disco Time     
2. Solo Venturi   
3. Disruptor
DISCO TIME failed as the favorite against a deep group in the Pegasus World Cup but that was a better field than this, going further than he’s ever gone, and he did set fast fractions before fading in that loss; fully expecting him to rebound in this Challenger Stakes as he should be able to better back down the early splits as the main speed and class of this field. SOLO VENTURI benefited greatly from a clean trip behind a fast pace in that last one, and though he meets better, today he merits respect on the strength of that figure; he’s a threat if he gets that same kind of setup and can run to that Beyer. DISRUPTOR was off the pace in those last two races, which featured a good deal of early zip, but he has more speed than he showed in those races, as evidenced by his first two starts; can be expected to be more involved from the outset from his inside post.
Fifth Race
1. Portfolio Duration   
2. Midway Memories      
3. Notable Exchange
PORTFOLIO DURATION manhandled maidens in her first start in nearly eight months back in December, and while she clearly has some issues that have caused her to have to take some time off, she is going to be a handful if she can run back to that 85 Beyer she posted in that graduation; gets more ground here but that could actually work to her advantage. MIDWAY MEMORIES has steady figures, and though they are a little light compared with the Beyer the top pick posted in her latest, she has every right to take a step forward in her first start since August; another who should appreciate the longer distance. NOTABLE EXCHANGE has the speed to get position from the start; best back figures put her in the mix, and given her tactical speed, she should be able to get the jump on the stone closers.
Sixth Race
1. El Chispazo    
2. Silver Slugger 
3. Secret Empire
EL CHISPAZO cuts back to a sprint, and while his best recent figures were earned in routes, he has done well when sprinting in the past; certainly has high speed, but he has also proven he can rate, especially in shorter races, and that versatility should ensure he’s in a good spot regardless of how the race flow develops. SILVER SLUGGER loves to win, having posted an 11-for-18 record in his career, and while he’s quick from the gate, he’s another who can rate if need be; consistent, strong, Beyers add to the appeal. SECRET EMPIRE was a game winner when last seen; he’s been in very good form of late, and though this may be a better field, he may be good enough to win this.
Seventh Race
1. Alpyland 
2. Knoty Knicks   
3. Congressional
ALPYLAND saw his three-race win streak snapped as the favorite in his latest but he hardly ran a poor race in defeat there, missing by just a length and matching his best career Beyer; he appears to be the one to beat in the Columbia Stakes on the strength of those last couple of figures, and though he’ll be looking to make the last run there seems to be enough speed in the field to set him up. KNOTY KNICKS exits the same race, and he wasn’t that far off the top pick on the wire there; he doesn’t have as much tactical speed as that runner, but if he gets a clean trip from the hedge and the fractions are quick enough, it would be no surprise to see him run them all down late. CONGRESSIONAL was a game winner in his Gulfstream debut for trainer Miguel Clement, who is currently clicking at 37% at this meet; will need to take a step forward in terms of Beyers, but that’s certainly plausible in only his second career start.
Eighth Race
1. Techstar 
2. Right Timing   
3. Fidela
TECHSTAR’s latest is easy to forgive, as she was overmatched in the Sandpiper Stakes, and she is clearly a better fit back in with maidens; she draws widest, but she has high speed, and she is the one they’ll have to catch. RIGHT TIMING debuts for Chad Brown, and that makes her an immediate consideration given the barn’s success at this meet, especially with firsters; she’s the first starter out of an unraced dam, but she has turned in a full slate of works for this debut. FIDELA improved with Lasix, and with the move to dirt, in her second career start; dangerous today with another step forward.
Ninth Race
1. Whiskey Decision     
2. Destino d’Oro  
3. And One More Time
WHISKEY DECISION was behind DESTINO D’ORO in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf but she was moving very well in the late stages of that race, and she galloped out nicely past the wire; that 90 figure was a bit below her usual best Beyers but she can be expected to improve with that race under her belt and she can turn the tables if she gets clear sailing from the hedge in the Hillsborough Stakes. DESTINO D’ORO sprang the upset in that race with a steady late run in that last meeting, her second straight score, and the resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility as she makes her Tampa debut; stone closer needs pace, but if she gets honest splits up front, she obviously has license to score again. AND ONE MORE TIME may have moved too soon when in against the top pair last time after a slow start cost her early position; could be set for her best yet in her third start off the layoff.
Twelfth Race
1. Tiz the Lady   
2. All of It      
3. Parfois
TIZ THE LADY adds blinkers for her second start off the layoff and she comes off an excellent try in her first start back; goes a little longer in this race but more than capable with a little improvement with a race under her belt. ALL OF IT debuts for trainer Miguel Clement, and this barn is always a threat first time out; dam was best on dirt but won her own debut, and her only other starter, Inamorata, scored on the green. PARFOIS makes her U. S. bow for trainer Chad Brown and lures Prat; crossed the wire first in her debut in France, only to be disqualified.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Florida Oaks and Tampa Bay Derby Predictions for Saturday, March 7 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment