Game: Stanford Cardinal vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: March 7th at 2:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: The CW Network

On Saturday afternoon in Raleigh, the NC State Wolfpack will wrap up their regular season against one of the newer ACC members, the Stanford Cardinal. Stanford has hovered just below the middle of the pack throughout conference play this season.

The Cardinal enter this matchup with a 19-11 overall record and an 8-9 mark in ACC play. This game will be Stanford’s 11th Quad 1 matchup of the season, and they are currently 4-6 against opponents in that quadrant. Stanford is averaging 76.1 points per game (144th in Division I) while allowing 72.6 points per contest (124th nationally).

NC State, meanwhile, has struggled over the last few weeks and comes into this game having lost four of its last five contests. Despite that stretch, the Wolfpack still find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble. NC State sits at 19-11 overall with a 10-7 record in the ACC. Stanford qualifies as a Quad 2 opponent for the Wolfpack, and they are 6-2 against Quad 2 teams this season.

On the year, NC State is averaging 83.5 points per game (26th in Division I) while allowing 75.7 points per contest (210th nationally). Even though the teams have identical overall records, NC State appears to be the stronger team on paper and will look to show that advantage on the court.

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Betting Overview

NC State opened as an 8.5-point favorite, though the line has dipped slightly at some sportsbooks, with numbers ranging between -7.5 and -8.5. On the moneyline, the best value currently sits at +280 for Stanford (BetMGM) and -310 for NC State (FanDuel).

The total has also moved downward from its opening number of 154.5 and now sits between 151.5 and 152.5 depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

There isn’t a massive gap between these teams in the KenPom rankings. NC State sits 38th nationally with a +19.60 net rating, while Stanford ranks 61st with a +13.33 net rating.

The Wolfpack hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.0 (78th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 96.4 (17th nationally). Stanford counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 117.2 (62nd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 103.9 (76th nationally).

Betting Trends

Since Stanford Cardinal are relatively new to the ACC, there isn’t much history between these programs. The teams met last season, where the NC State Wolfpack lost the game but still managed to cover the spread, while the over (139.5) also hit.

Stanford enters with a 15-14-1 ATS record, including a 3-5-1 mark on the road and a 1-4-1 record as a road underdog. The Cardinal are 11-8-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 8-8-1 in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under overall, hitting in 17 of 30 games. On the road, the under has connected in five of nine contests, including four of six as a road underdog. With 2–3 days off, the under has hit in 11 of 20 games, including 10 of 17 in conference play.

NC State also enters at 15-14-1 ATS, holding a 7-7-1 record at home and a 7-6-1 mark as a home favorite. The Wolfpack are just 3-6 ATS with 4+ days of rest and 8-8-1 in ACC action. Totals have leaned toward the over in NC State games this season, hitting in 18 of 30 contests. At home, however, the under has been more favorable, cashing in eight of 15 games, including eight of 14 as a home favorite. With 4+ days of rest, the under has connected in six of nine contests, while in ACC play the over has hit in 11 of 17 games.

Final Thoughts

Every game matters during the regular season, but this one feels particularly important for NC State given their recent struggles down the stretch. The Wolfpack should be motivated to finish the regular season on a positive note.

I expect NC State to come away with the win, but covering the number may prove more difficult. As for the total, the conflicting trends make it difficult to trust either side, so I would stay away.