Game: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: March 11th at 9:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

The Clemson Tigers begin their postseason run in a late-night showdown against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake Forest advanced to this matchup after taking care of business last night in an overtime thriller against the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Wake Forest hasn’t been too bad as of late, winning three of its last five games. The Demon Deacons enter this contest with a 17-15 overall record and a 7-11 mark in ACC play. Facing Clemson on a neutral court makes this a Quad 1 matchup for Wake Forest, and they are just 1-9 against opponents in that quadrant this season. Wake Forest is currently averaging 79.4 points per game (79th in Division I) while allowing 77.3 points per contest (243rd in Division I).

Clemson, meanwhile, has been somewhat inconsistent down the stretch but will look to start fresh as postseason play begins. The Tigers come into this game at 22-9 overall with a 12-6 record in the ACC and have dropped three of their last five games. Wake Forest qualifies as a Quad 2 opponent for Clemson on a neutral floor, and the Tigers are 6-4 against teams in that quadrant this season. Clemson is averaging 74.5 points per game (185th in Division I) while allowing just 66.3 points per contest (18th in Division I).

This late-night matchup should serve as an exciting way to wrap up a full day of conference tournament action.

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Betting Overview

Clemson opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and while some sportsbooks have held that number, others have moved the line slightly down to Clemson -4.5.

The best value on the moneyline currently sits at +190 for Wake Forest (Bet365) and -218 for Clemson (DraftKings). The total has remained fairly steady as well, opening at 141.5 and holding at that number at most sportsbooks, with a few books nudging it up to 142.5.

KenPom Ratings

There isn’t a massive gap between these teams in the KenPom rankings. Clemson currently sits 38th nationally with a net rating of +18.94, while Wake Forest ranks 69th with a net rating of +11.69.

The Tigers hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.5 (76th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 97.5 (20th nationally). Wake Forest, meanwhile, has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 117.6 (63rd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 105.9 (101st nationally).

Betting Trends

When these teams met back in February in Winston-Salem, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons came away with the win while also covering the spread, and the over cashed in that matchup. Looking at the last 10 meetings between these teams, the Clemson Tigers hold a slight edge with six wins. However, each team has covered the spread five times, and the over has been more favorable, hitting in seven of those contests.

Wake Forest enters this matchup with a 15-16-1 ATS record, including a strong 4-1 mark on neutral courts, a 7-6 record as an underdog, and a 9-9-1 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Demon Deacons games this season, hitting in 18 of 32 contests. On neutral courts, the over has connected in three of five games. When Wake Forest has been an underdog, the over has hit in nine of 13 games. In ACC matchups, the over has also been favorable, hitting in 11 of 19 contests.

Clemson comes into this matchup 15-14-1 ATS this season, with a 2-2 record on neutral floors, an 11-13-1 mark as a favorite, and a 9-8-1 record in ACC play. The under has been the more common result in Clemson games, cashing in 18 of their 30 contests this season. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly at two games apiece. When Clemson has been favored, the under has hit in 15 of 25 matchups, including 11 of 18 games during ACC play.

Final Thoughts

With Wake Forest playing several teams close recently, this matchup has the potential to be another tight contest. I think the Demon Deacons will manage to keep this one within the number and ultimately cover the spread. As for the total, I would lean slightly toward the under in this matchup.