Game: Florida State Seminoles vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 12th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

The Duke Blue Devils begin their postseason run this evening against the Florida State Seminoles, though they will feel the absence of guard Caleb Foster in this matchup. Florida State put together a solid overall season and secured a victory in its opening ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament game last night against the California Golden Bears.

The Seminoles now sit at 18-14 overall this season after finishing 10-8 in ACC play. This matchup qualifies as a Quad 1 game for Florida State, and they currently hold a 3-7 record against opponents in that quadrant. Florida State enters this contest averaging 80.4 points per game (61st in Division I) while allowing 77.9 points per game (264th nationally).

Duke, meanwhile, had an extremely impressive regular season, finishing as the No. 1 team in the AP rankings and carrying significant momentum into postseason play. After 31 games, the Blue Devils sit at 29-2 overall with a dominant 17-1 record in ACC play. Florida State qualifies as a Quad 2 opponent for Duke on a neutral floor, and the Blue Devils are a perfect 5-0 against teams in that quadrant this season. Duke is averaging 82.9 points per game (30th in Division I) while allowing just 62.5 points per game (2nd nationally). This should be an intriguing matchup to watch, as we’ll see whether Florida State can keep pace with one of the nation’s most complete teams.

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Betting Overview

Duke unsurprisingly opened as a large favorite in this matchup at -18.5, though the line has since moved slightly down to around -17.5 at most sportsbooks.

The moneyline for this game has been removed at many sportsbooks due to the large spread. Meanwhile, the total has dipped slightly from the opening number of 152.5 and now sits around 151.5.

KenPom Ratings

Duke remains the No. 1 team in the KenPom rankings with a net rating of +40.57, while Florida State comes in at 64th with a net rating of +12.76.

The Blue Devils rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (128.5) and 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency (87.9). Florida State, on the other hand, ranks 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency (118.1) and 94th in adjusted defensive efficiency (105.3).

Betting Trends

These teams met earlier this season in Tallahassee, where the Duke Blue Devils came away with a 91–87 victory over the Florida State Seminoles. Florida State managed to cover the spread in that matchup, and the over also cashed.

Florida State enters this game with an 18-13-1 ATS record, including a 1-3 mark on neutral courts, an 8-6-1 record as an underdog, and an 11-7-1 record in ACC play. Totals have been evenly split in Seminoles games this season, with 16 overs and 16 unders. On neutral courts, the over has hit in three of four games. When Florida State has been an underdog, the over has cashed in eight of 15 contests. In ACC play, the over has hit in 11 of 19 games.

Duke comes into this matchup 18-13 ATS this season, including a 3-2 record on neutral floors, a 16-13 mark as a favorite, and a 10-8 record in ACC games. Totals have strongly leaned toward the under in Blue Devils games, hitting in 21 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, the under has connected in four of five games. When Duke has been favored, the under has hit in 19 of 29 matchups, including 11 of 18 games during conference play.

Final Thoughts

Even with Duke potentially missing guard Caleb Foster, the Blue Devils still appear to have a significant advantage in this matchup. This is a much different Duke team than the one Florida State faced earlier in the season.

Because of that, I expect Duke to control the game and ultimately cover the spread. As for the total, the trends suggest the under is the more likely outcome in this contest.