The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-43 SU and 17-33-4 ATS (34%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at ORL)

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 99-41 SU and 86-53-1 ATS (61.9%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM)

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* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 187-68 SU and 149-105-1 ATS (58.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs DEN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs BOS)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* PHOENIX is 12-2 SU and ATS (85.7%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 at IND) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 69-55 SU and 69-54 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at ORL) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 26-10 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DET (o/u at 221.5) 

* MIAMI is 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS (78.9%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 vs MIL) 

* MIAMI is 30-12 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-MIA (o/u at 234.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 223-285 SU but 282-218-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+6.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 54-30 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-OKC (o/u at 216.5)

* BROOKLYN is 12-29 SU but 23-17-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BROOKLYN (+15.5 at ATL) 

* ATLANTA is 136-105 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-ATL (o/u at 226.5) 

* CHICAGO is 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS (30%) in its last 20 games
* LA LAKERS are 39-15 SU and 37-17 ATS playing at home in OneDayRest games since January 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-11.5 vs CHI) 

* LA LAKERS are 12-4 Over the total (75%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
* NBA teams playing at home in a One Day Rest scenario were 111-84 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-LAL (o/u at 238.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(513) PHOENIX at (514) INDIANA* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Suns-Pacers non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-IND (o/u at 223.5)

(515) WASHINGTON at (516) ORLANDO* ORLANDO is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six instances of hosting Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-14.5 vs WSH)

(517) PHILADELPHIA at (518) DETROIT* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the 76ers-Pistons series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-DET (o/u at 221.5)

(519) MILWAUKEE at (520) MIAMI* MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS in the last nine matchups with Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+6.5 at MIA)

(521) BROOKLYN at (522) ATLANTA* Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the BKN-ATL set at State Farm Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+15.5 at ATL)

(523) DALLAS at (524) MEMPHIS* MEMPHIS is on a 7-0 SU and ATS surge versus divisional foe Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs DAL)

(525) DENVER at (526) SAN ANTONIO* Road teams are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the DEN-SAS  series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+5.5 at SAS)

(527) BOSTON at (528) OKLAHOMA CITY* OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the non-conference series with Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs BOS)

(529) CHICAGO at (530) LA LAKERS* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the CHI-LAL historic series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-LAL (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 187-68 SU and 149-105-1 ATS (58.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs DEN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs BOS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 140-110 SU and 142-105-3 ATS (57.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 99-41 SU and 86-53-1 ATS (61.9%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-111 (55.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 255-212 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 345-274 (55.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-DET (spread -15.5, total 221.5), BKN-ATL (spread -15.5, total 226.5), CHI-LAL (spread -11.5, total 238.5)
UNDER – WSH-ORL (spread -14.5, total 233.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 51-15 SU and 39-27 ATS (59.1%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 96-63-1 (60.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ORL (o/u at 233.5) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 113-75-1 ATS (60.1%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at ORL), MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs DAL)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 309-171 SU but just 200-267-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs BOS)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 342-263 SU but 276-314-15 ATS (46.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DETROIT (-15.5 vs PHI)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 176-220 SU and 171-221-4 ATS (43.6%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-11.5 vs CHI) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 396-343 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-ORL (o/u at 233.5), PHI-DET (o/u at 221.5), MIL-MIA (o/u at 234.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 345-355 SU and 319-373-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-15.5 vs PHI), DENVER (+5.5 at SAS)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 203-215 SU and 193-215-10 ATS (47.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-8.5 at IND) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 96-67 SU and 98-64-1 ATS (60.5%) in their last 163 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MEMPHIS vs DAL (+4.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 151-27 SU but 78-97-3 ATS (44.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO (-14.5 vs WSH), ATLANTA (-15.5 vs BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 53-12 SU and 40-25 ATS (61.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-14.5 vs WSH) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 50-17 SU and 45-20-2 ATS (69.2%) in their last 67 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 9-35 SU and 16-27-1 ATS (37.2%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 114-133 SU but 138-107-3 ATS (56.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-43 SU and 17-33-4 ATS (34%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4-games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-90 SU but 69-59 ATS (53.9%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at ORL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 309-357-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 41-164 SU and 89-110-6 ATS (44.7%).System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at ORL), INDIANA (+8.5 vs PHX), ATLANTA (-15.5 vs BKN), DALLAS (-4.5 at MEM)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, WASHINGTON, DALLAS, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, BOSTON, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, ATLANTA, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-IND, BKN-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-ORL, CHI-LAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BOS-OKC

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +11.5 (+1.4)
2(tie). INDIANA +8.5 (+0.7)
PHILADELPHIA +15.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -13.5 (+1.2)
2. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+0.5)
3. ATLANTA -15.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +11.5 (+2.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA +15.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+1.0)
2. ORLANDO -13.5 (+0.9)
3. DALLAS -5.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-SAS OVER 238.5 (+2.4)
2. BOS-OKC OVER 217.5 (+0.3)
3. BKN-ATL OVER 226.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-LAL UNDER 238.5 (-4.0)
2. MIL-MIA UNDER 234.5 (-3.1)
3. DAL-MEM UNDER 239.5 (-3.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+2.0)
2. BROOKLYN +15.5 (+1.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA +15.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -5.5 (+1.5)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+1.1)
3. ORLANDO -13.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-SAS OVER 238.5 (+3.0)
2. PHX-IND OVER 223.5 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-LAL UNDER 238.5 (-6.2)
2. BKN-ATL UNDER 226.5 (-4.4)
3. MIL-MIA UNDER 234.5 (-4.0)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Thursday, March 12 appeared first on VSiN.