The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In WC Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 31-13 (70.5%) rate in the last 44 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-POR (o/u at 236.5)

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* INDIANA is 14-26 SU and9-30-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+13.5 vs NYK)

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 114-76-1 ATS (60%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 vs MIN)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 69-56 SU and 70-54 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* NEW YORK is just 4-7 SU and2-9 ATS (18.2%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
* INDIANA is 14-26 SU and9-30-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
System/Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (-13.5 at IND) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 223-286 SU but 283-218-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-13.5 at DAL), MINNESOTA (-6.5 at GSW), UTAH (+14.5 at POR) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 54-31 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-GSW (o/u at 224.5) 

* UTAH is 103-75 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* PORTLAND is 19-7 Over the total (73.1%) as a favorite this season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-POR (o/u at 236.5) 

* HOUSTON is 20-10 Under the total (66.7%) at home this season
* NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 Over the total (75%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NOP-HOU (o/u at 230.5) 

* CHICAGO is 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in its last 21 games
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+13.5 at LAC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 112-84 OVER the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-LAC (o/u at 234.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games: 

(531) NEW YORK at (532) INDIANA* OVER the total is 6-1 in L7 of Knicks-Pacers h2h series at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-IND (o/u at 227.5)

(533) MEMPHIS at (534) DETROIT* MEMPHIS is on an extended 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS run when visiting Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+16.5 at DET)

(535) PHOENIX at (536) TORONTO* UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 of Suns-Raptors h2h non-conference set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-TOR (o/u at 217.5)

(537) CLEVELAND at (538) DALLAS* ROAD TEAMS are on 8-1 ATS surge in CLE-DAL h2h series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-13.5 at DAL)

(541) MINNESOTA at (542) GOLDEN STATE* MINNESOTA is 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 at GSW)

(543) UTAH at (544) PORTLAND* OVER the total has converted in eight of the last nine meetings between divisional foes Utah and Portland
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-POR (o/u at 236.5)

(545) CHICAGO at (546) LA CLIPPERS* FAVORITES are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in L8 of CHI-LAC h2h non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs CHI)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L5 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 137-112 (55%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 256-212 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 346-275 (55.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-IND (spread +13.5, total 227.5), MEM-DET (spread -16.5, total 232.5), CLE-DAL (spread +13.5, total 236.5), CHI-LAC (spread -13.5, total 234.5)
UNDER – UTA-POR (spread -14.5, total 236.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go OVER at a 31-13 (70.5%) rate in the L44 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-POR (o/u at 236.5) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 9-9 SU and4-14 ATS (22.2%) since the start of the ’24 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-14.5 vs UTA) 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5-points or more are on a 52-15 SU and40-27 ATS (59.7%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 191-112 SU but 139-160-4 ATS (46.5%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 111-142 ATS (43.9%) mark when not playing the next day.System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-6.5 at GSW)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 101-65 SU and 90-74-2 ATS (54.9%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-16.5 vs MEM)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 114-76-1 ATS (60%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 vs MIN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hostsNBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 343-263 SU but 277-314-15 ATS (46.9%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs CHI) 

Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 397-345 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-LAC (o/u at 234.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 347-355 SU and321-373-8 ATS (46.3%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+14.5 at POR), LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs CHI) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back wellNBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 197-174 SU and202-159-10 ATS (56%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 vs NOP)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going OVER the total at a 109-75 (59.2%) rate since 2021, including 54-32 (62.8%) to the OVER in the L86.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-DET (o/u at 232.5)

NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-80 SU and 48-59 ATS (44.9%) in their L107 tries.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+16.5 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 114-134 SU but 138-108-3 ATS (56.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+16.5 at DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 311-359-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+13.5 vs NYK)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the BETTING SPLITS pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 PM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

–     Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
–     Majority number of betson point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
–     Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
–     Majority number of betson money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
–     Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%

–     Majority number of betson totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MINNESOTA

 DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of betsmajorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MEM-DET, CLE-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of betsgroups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – PHX-DET

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +13.5 (+4.0)
2. UTAH +14.5 (+3.7)
3. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+1.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -16.5 (+2.5)
2. TORONTO -4.5 (+1.3)
3. HOUSTON -6.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +13.5 (+7.6)
2. CHICAGO +13.5 (+3.8)
3. UTAH +14.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.6)
2. DETROIT -16.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-TOR OVER 217.5 (+1.5)
2. UTA-POR OVER 236.5 (+1.4)
3. NOP-HOU OVER 230.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-GSW UNDER 224.5 (-2.4)
2. CLE-DAL UNDER 236.5 (-1.5)
3. MEM-DET UNDER 233.5 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +13.5 (+2.9)
2. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+2.2)
3. UTAH +14.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -16.5 (+4.8)
2. TORONTO -4.5 (+1.2)
3. HOUSTON -6.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NOP-HOU OVER 230.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-TOR UNDER 217.5 (-3.2)
2. MEM-DET UNDER 233.5 (-3.1)
3. NYK-IND UNDER 227.5 (-2.3)

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