Game: Texas Longhorns vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: March 17th at 9:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: truTV

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament officially gets underway—at least in part—this evening with the first two games of the First Four. While these games are not technically part of the main bracket, they carry the same urgency: it is win or go home from here on out. Consider this a small appetizer over the next two nights before the full slate tips off Thursday through Sunday.

Our focus will be on the second matchup featuring two No. 11 seeds, the Texas Longhorns men’s basketball and the NC State Wolfpack men’s basketball, who appear to be very evenly matched on paper.

Texas struggled to find consistency late in the season, dropping several games down the stretch and finishing with an 18–14 overall record. Their resume is still bolstered by six Quad 1 wins, which helped land them in this spot. This will be another Quad 1 opportunity for the Longhorns, who are 6–9 against such opponents this season. Texas is averaging 82.6 points per game (32nd in Division I) while allowing 76.8 points per game (236th in Division I).

NC State experienced similar inconsistency late in the year, which is why they also find themselves in a play-in scenario. The Wolfpack finished the season 20–13 overall and went 5–8 against Quad 1 opponents. Offensively, they have been just as potent as Texas, averaging 83.7 points per game (24th in Division I), but like the Longhorns, they have struggled defensively, allowing 76.5 points per game (230th in Division I).

We should be in for an exciting battle in Dayton, as this SEC vs. ACC showdown features two high-powered offenses and defenses that can be vulnerable. It also raises the question—can a win here spark a deeper run for either team?

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Betting Overview

There has been noticeable variation across sportsbooks in this matchup. NC State initially opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and while some books still list them around -1, the majority have shifted toward Texas, now favoring the Longhorns at around -1.5.

The moneyline reflects just how tight this game is expected to be, essentially sitting at a pick’em with both teams hovering around -110.

The total has seen a more significant move, dropping from the opening number of 162.5 down to a range between 157.5 and 158.5.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, NC State holds a slight edge, ranking 34th nationally with a net rating of +19.60, while Texas sits just behind at 37th with a net rating of +19.03.

The Wolfpack feature an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 124.1 (20th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 104.5 (86th nationally). They also play at a moderate tempo, ranking 86th nationally at 69.1 possessions per game.

Texas, on the other hand, is slightly more efficient offensively with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 125.0 (13th nationally), but trails defensively with a 105.9 rating (112th nationally). The Longhorns also play at a slower pace, ranking 206th nationally in tempo at 66.9 possessions per game.

Betting Trends

We’ve actually seen these two programs meet twice in recent years—once in 2024 and again earlier this season in November. The Texas Longhorns men’s basketball have had the edge in both matchups, winning and covering each time. Totals in those games have split evenly, with the over hitting in the November meeting.

This season, Texas holds a 16-15 ATS record, including a 1-3 mark on neutral courts, an 8-10 record as a favorite, and a 7-5 record in non-conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Longhorns games, hitting in 19 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, totals have split two games apiece. When Texas has been favored, the over has hit in 11 of 18 games, and in non-conference matchups the over has connected in 7 of 12.

The NC State Wolfpack men’s basketball enter with a 16-16-1 ATS record, including a 4-3 mark on neutral floors, a 1-5 record as an underdog, and a 7-6 record in non-conference games. Totals have also leaned toward the over in NC State games, hitting in 21 of 33 contests. On neutral courts, the over has hit in five of seven games. As an underdog, the over has connected in four of six matchups, and in non-conference play it has hit in 7 of 13 games.

Final Thoughts

This matchup brings plenty of intrigue, but it is also one of the tougher games on the board to confidently pick a side. With both teams featuring high-powered offenses and inconsistent defenses, there are a lot of variables in play.

Because of that, I’m staying away from choosing a side in this one and instead leaning toward the over, expecting both teams to find success offensively in what should be a fast-paced and high-scoring game.