Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze a maiden special weight at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky.

On Wednesday, Daily Racing Form’s Race of the Day features Turfway Park for the ninth race on a 10-race card – nine horses go in search of a first career victory going 1 1/16 miles on the synthetic surface for a $100,000 purse. Post time is 9:55 p.m. Eastern. Aragona notes you can make a case for almost every horse in the field, and Beer says the longer he looked, the less he liked the short prices. The two handicappers split on their picks to win.

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The Favorites

No. 5 Up Country enters as the morning-line favorite on the strength of Beyer Speed Figures in the low-to-mid 80s earned on dirt. But his lone synthetic start last time at Turfway was a fade, and Beer noted the pace was slow enough to make the effort look worse. Aragona raised a stamina question too: Up Country reached the eighth pole in both his best dirt efforts without finishing, casting doubt on whether this son of Practical Joke wants 1 1/16 miles on any surface. Both pass.

No. 7 Prime Edge set the pace in that same race and returns as one of the favorites on the morning line. Aragona noted trainer Josie Carroll ships to Turfway with intention – eight wins from 30 starters over the last five years with a positive ROI. But Beer didn’t think Prime Edge ran well last time out or in his Woodbine second-place effort in October.

The Picks

No. 2 Culture War is Aragona’s pick to win. The 4-year-old stretches back out after a Jan. 2 sprinting effort – his first career start at that distance – that both handicappers view as a prep. He raced along the inside, finished decently, and galloped out best past the wire. He met useful company on the turf earlier in his career and showed enough ability that the two-turn setup looks like a fit.

No. 6 Dienekes is Beer’s pick to win. The lightly raced 4-year-old debuted Feb. 13 at Turfway, got bumped hard at the start – Aragona said the jockey was nearly unseated – raced greenly, and still did some running late. His pedigree – by Flatter – projects well for added distance, and he gets a rider upgrade here.

No. 1 Bluegrass Pike draws interest from Beer as a price horse with a Beyer improvement from debut to second start, though Aragona noted trainer Rusty Arnold is just 7 for 134 at Turfway over the last five years. 

No. 3 Lahainaluna makes his second career start for trainer Joe Sharp. He broke slowly on debut but showed a smooth stride in a recent workout. No. 9 Mighty Mike returns from a long layoff; Beer likes him as an unexposed 4-year-old.

The Handicappers’ Verdict

Aragona and Beer split on the top selection. Both will bypass the morning-line favorites. Here are their complete sets of picks:

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David Aragona

  • Culture War
  • Lahainaluna
  • Dienekes
  • Prime Edge

Mike Beer

  • Dienekes
  • Bluegrass Pike
  • Mighty Mike
  • Up Country

    Listen for more insights, as David and Mike break down this race:


 

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