Game: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: March 20th at 6:50 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

In one of the always entertaining 8 vs. 9 matchups, the Iowa Hawkeyes will take on the Clemson Tigers this evening. Both teams have had about a week off, so they should be well-rested and prepared for what should be a physical battle.

Iowa has not entered the tournament with much momentum, dropping four of its last five games to close out the season. Despite that, the Hawkeyes still compiled a solid 21–12 overall record. This matchup qualifies as a Quad 1 game for Iowa, and they went 5–9 against Quad 1 opponents this season. The Hawkeyes are averaging 75.2 points per game (161st in Division I) while allowing just 66.0 points per game (16th in Division I), highlighting their defensive strength.

Clemson, on the other hand, looked like one of the stronger teams in the ACC midway through conference play before hitting a few bumps in the road. Recently, however, the Tigers have regained momentum with several key wins to close out the regular season and into the ACC Tournament. Clemson enters at 24–10 overall and will be playing its 13th Quad 1 game of the season, holding a 6–6 record in those matchups. The Tigers are averaging 74.1 points per game (193rd in Division I) while allowing 66.7 points per game (21st in Division I).

With both teams excelling on the defensive end, this sets up as a physical, grind-it-out contest that could very well come down to the final possessions.

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Betting Overview

Iowa opened as a 1.5-point favorite in this matchup and has since seen that number climb slightly, now sitting between -2 and -2.5 depending on the sportsbook.

The moneyline has remained relatively stable, with Iowa currently around -130 (from -135), while Clemson sits near +115 (from +114).

The total has dipped slightly from the opening number of 130.5 and now sits between 129 and 129.5 across most books.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, Iowa holds a slightly larger edge than expected. The Hawkeyes come in ranked 24th with a net rating of +22.41, while Clemson sits 39th with a net rating of +18.94.

Iowa has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 121.7 (30th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 99.3 (30th nationally), while playing at one of the slowest tempos in the country (358th).

Clemson counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.4 (72nd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 97.4 (21st nationally), also operating at a slow tempo (333rd nationally).

Betting Trends

The Iowa Hawkeyes enter this matchup with an 18-15 ATS record, including a 2-2 mark on neutral courts, a strong 13-10 record as a favorite, and an impressive 9-2 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have leaned toward the over in Iowa games this season, hitting in 19 of 33 contests. On neutral courts, the over has hit in three of four games. When Iowa has been favored, the over has connected in 15 of 23 matchups, and in non-conference play it has hit in 6 of 11 games.

The Clemson Tigers come in with a 16-16-1 ATS record, including a 3-4 mark on neutral floors, a solid 4-2 record as an underdog, and a 6-6 record in non-conference matchups. Totals have leaned toward the under in Clemson games, hitting in 20 of 33 contests. On neutral courts, the under has hit in four of seven games. As an underdog, the under has connected in four of six matchups, and in non-conference play it has hit in 7 of 12 games.

Final Thoughts

With Carter Welling unavailable for Clemson, this becomes an even more difficult matchup for the Tigers. While Clemson has been the more consistent defensive team, Iowa’s offensive efficiency gives them a clear edge in this spot.

Because of that, I expect Iowa to control the game offensively, ultimately winning and covering the spread. As for the total, Iowa’s offensive pace combined with their over trends makes the over the preferred lean in this matchup.