Game: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 21st at 5:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

Things looked a bit shaky for the Duke Blue Devils in their first-round matchup against Siena, and if they come out flat again, they may not be as fortunate this time. Duke now faces the TCU Horned Frogs, who survived a tightly contested battle against Ohio State to advance.

TCU enters this matchup with a 23–11 overall record and a 6–7 mark against Quad 1 opponents. The Horned Frogs average 77.9 points per game (95th in Division I) while allowing 71.8 points per game (101st in Division I), making them a balanced but not elite team on either end.

Duke, now 33–2 on the season after escaping Siena, has been dominant against high-level competition, boasting a 17–2 record against Quad 1 opponents. The Blue Devils are averaging 82.0 points per game (35th nationally) while allowing just 63.2 points per game (3rd in Division I), continuing to showcase one of the best defenses in the country.

This sets up for an intriguing 1 vs. 9 matchup. Expect Duke to come out with more urgency after their slow start in the first round, especially against a capable TCU squad.

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Betting Overview

There has been little to no movement in the spread, with Duke opening as a 12.5-point favorite and remaining there across most sportsbooks.

The moneyline shows slight variation, with TCU best priced around +680 (FanDuel), while Duke sits near -800 (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars).

The total has ticked up slightly from 138.5 to between 139.5 and 140 depending on the book.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, Duke has slipped from the top spot and now ranks 3rd nationally with a +37.68 net rating, while TCU sits 43rd with a +17.89.

The Blue Devils continue to shine with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 127.4 (7th nationally) and the nation’s top adjusted defensive efficiency at 89.8. They also play at a slower tempo (287th), which often helps them control games.

TCU holds an adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.3 (81st nationally) and a strong defensive efficiency of 97.5 (21st), while playing at a more moderate tempo (171st).

Betting Trends

The TCU Horned Frogs come into this matchup with a 19-15 ATS record, including a strong 4-2 mark on neutral courts, an impressive 10-3 record as an underdog, and an 8-6 record in non-conference play. Totals have leaned toward the under in TCU games, hitting in 19 of 34 contests. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly at three apiece. As an underdog, the under has hit in 7 of 13 matchups, and in non-conference games it has connected in 9 of 14.

The Duke Blue Devils enter with a 19-16 ATS record, including a 4-5 mark on neutral courts, a 17-16 record as a favorite, and an 8-6 record against non-conference opponents. The under has been a consistent trend in Duke games, hitting in 23 of 35 contests. On neutral courts, the under has connected in 6 of 9 games. When Duke has been favored, the under has hit in 21 of 33 matchups, and in non-conference play it has hit in 11 of 14.

Final Thoughts

This sets up as a competitive tournament matchup where both teams should come out with intensity. The TCU Horned Frogs have been particularly strong against the spread as an underdog, which gives them a solid chance to keep this game within the number.

While Duke is clearly the better team on paper, I do think TCU will hang around enough to cover. As for the total, there isn’t a ton of conviction either way, but based on both teams’ season-long trends, the under would be the slight lean.