Daily Racing Form handicappers Ashley Mailloux and Mike Beer analyze a one-mile dirt stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
Thursday’s featured race is Race 8 at Oaklawn Park – a mile dirt stakes with a post time of 4:19 p.m. Central and a purse of $200,000. The analysts are split at the top – Beer makes the morning-line favorite his pick to win, while Mailloux leads with a different horse.
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The Favorite
No. 1 Desert Gate draws in as the 6-5 morning-line favorite for trainer Bob Baffert, and Beer is on board. He points to Desert Gate’s rail draw, early speed, and the first-time addition of blinkers. “I’ll just take that forward,” Beer says. “He’s got the rail. He’s got speed, and he’s getting class relief here.” Beer acknowledges the horse has disappointed in both route tries and must prove he wants two turns, but he sees a mile as a workable spot to get right.
Mailloux puts Desert Gate second in her sequence but isn’t fully sold on him at the top. She’s been watching Baffert shippers at Oaklawn and has grown skeptical. “I think kind of looking at some of these other races at Oaklawn, even the last year or two,” she says, “Bob has overshipped these spots.” Beer acknowledges Desert Gate was disappointing last time and must prove he wants two turns – but believes this is the right spot to find out.
The Contenders
Mailloux’s pick to win is No. 7 Soldier N Diplomat at 8-1 on the morning line. Her case is a forgive-the-last-race thesis: Soldier N Diplomat had a brutal trip in the Rebel Stakes and deserves a pass. “He was sort of at a disadvantage based on where he was drawn,” she says. She also credits his Southwest effort – run wide – as a solid performance and notes he has the speed to clear the field from the outside. Beer agrees the Rebel trip was brutal, slots Soldier N Diplomat second, but says he’s not a big enough fan to go to the top with him.
Both analysts include No. 5 Top Level, one of two Mark Casse-trained runners in the field, in their sequences. Beer says he doesn’t believe the 66 Beyer from Top Level’s last start. “I’m going to expect him to bounce back in this race,” he says, pointing to a maiden win he considered a fast, strong performance.
Beer goes second with No. 3 Bricklin – noting his last two races are solid and that the horse has moved forward as a 3-year-old. Mailloux closes her picks with No. 4 Race Ready, trained by Norm Casse, saying his last two efforts look good and the horse appears headed in the right direction.
The Verdict
Ashley Mailloux’s picks
No. 7 Soldier N Diplomat
No. 1 Desert Gate
No. 5 Top Level
No. 4 Race Ready
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 1 Desert Gate
No. 7 Soldier N Diplomat
No. 3 Bricklin
No. 5 Top Level
Mailloux and Beer disagree on the winner but have the same two horses at the top of their tickets – just in reverse order.
Watch for more thoughts on this race from Ashley and Mike:
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