Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla.
Saturday’s Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles is Race 14 on a 14-race card at Gulfstream Park. The $1 million dirt test for 3-year-olds is part of the final round of 200-point Kentucky Derby qualifying preps, with a post time of 6:42 p.m. Eastern. Both Aragona and Beer land on the same horse, and it is not the morning-line favorite.
Nearly: No. 6 has both handicappers
Embed from Getty ImagesNearly, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, has won three straight by open margins since a green debut effort, most recently taking the Holy Bull Stakes at this track in late January. Aragona and Beer both make him their top pick Saturday.
Beer points to the trajectory. “He just done everything so willingly,” Beer says. “He puts himself into the race when he has to. He powers through the stretch of his races. It feels like nine furlongs is not going to be an issue for this horse.”
Aragona flags the class jump as the one question mark – this is a significant step up from the Holy Bull field – but says Pletcher’s recent works put that concern to rest. Nearly’s March 13 workout paired him with Pursuitneversleeps, a fast older allowance horse, and Nearly left him behind on the gallop-out. “It just looks like Pletcher’s got him primed to run an A race,” Aragona says.
Points context adds urgency. Nearly collected only 20 Derby points for the Holy Bull win and needs a first- or second-place finish here to secure a Kentucky Derby spot.
The horse to beat: No. 4 Commandment
Commandment, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat, is the Fountain of Youth winner and holds the most compelling form line in the field – three wins from four starts, each against tougher company than the last. Beer calls him the horse to beat. “He’s just been really good basically in all of his races,” Beer says. “His maiden win is even better than it looks on paper because he had trouble in that race and came right through it.”
Aragona notes that Commandment’s gallop-outs have been consistently impressive, particularly after the Fountain of Youth, where jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. chirped him after he briefly lost focus near the wire and he quickly opened another five lengths on Chief Wallabee into the clubhouse turn. Ortiz switches to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, with Prat picking up the mount — a change Beer says matters even less than it might with another jockey taking over.
The morning-line favorite: No. 2 Chief Wallabee
Neither handicapper tops with Chief Wallabee, the 2-1 morning-line favorite trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, though both have him third. Beer explains the reasoning plainly: If Chief Wallabee is going to be the favorite, he would rather bet somewhere else. That is not a knock on the horse – Beer called his Fountain of Youth effort a great race, one in which Chief Wallabee got the wider trip while Commandment took dirt on the inside and still only lost by a neck. Aragona agrees, adding that Chief Wallabee’s ability to make multiple moves going two turns – he accelerated down the backstretch to get clear before the stretch run – speaks to serious talent. With just two starts behind him, Aragona says, if there is more improvement in him his rivals could be in trouble.
The Handicappers’ Verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 6 Nearly
No. 4 Commandment
No. 2 Chief Wallabee
No. 8 The Puma
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 6 Nearly
No. 4 Commandment
No. 2 Chief Wallabee
No. 8 The Puma
Aragona and Beer are in complete agreement – Nearly on top, with Commandment, Chief Wallabee, and The Puma to fill out the selections.
Watch for more thoughts on this race from David and Mike:
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