Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list underwent its biggest shakeup of the season with the news that Paladin, last week’s 6-1 favorite, is off the Triple Crown trail with a non-displaced condylar fracture in his right front ankle. With the favorite gone, Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona has installed Renegade as the new 7-2 morning-line favorite and Commandment at 9-2, with three new horses — Wonder Dean, Reagan’s Honor, and Six Speed — joining the list and Nearly and Litmus Test dropping off.
Renegade and Commandment head the board, with Chief Wallabee and The Puma co-third choices at 10-1. Emerging Market is fifth at 12-1. Three 200-point races Saturday – the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby – will significantly reshape the final Derby picture.
Renegade stamps himself the favorite
On this week’s Derby Watch podcast, Aragona made clear why Renegade – who moved from 10-1 to 7-2 – earned the top spot. “That final eighth of a mile where he comes home in . . . 11.86 [seconds] . . . just rocketing away from that field” was the defining moment, Aragona said of the Arkansas Derby winner’s four-length, 98 Beyer Speed Figure effort.
Daily Racing Form’s David Grening said runner-up Silent Tactic – who moves from 20-1 to 25-1 – was a horse who “reliably showed up,” while noting he may have shown his best form already, but could benefit from the pace the Kentucky Derby figures to supply.
Commandment wins the Florida Derby; jockey picture unsettled
Commandment won the Florida Derby by a nose over The Puma, with Chief Wallabee third, earning a 100 Beyer in his third consecutive win. Aragona said he regards Commandment as “the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby” right now. Grening added that “Commandment is just a horse. He does what he has to do. He knows where the wire is.” The horse moves from 8-1 to 9-2.
With Irad Ortiz Jr. expected to stay aboard Renegade, Commandment will need a new rider. On the podcast, the names of Manny Franco and Luis Saez were raised as riders Cox has worked with successfully.
The Puma vaults from 25-1 to 10-1 after his near-miss, with Grening noting the colt has “outrun expectations basically through all of his prep races so far.”
Chief Wallabee slips from 8-1 to 10-1.
International starters confirmed; three races Saturday
Danon Bourbon – moving from 40-1 to 15-1 – won the Fukuryu Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths to lock up the Japan Road to the Derby spot. Aragona said he was “pretty confident Danon Bourbon’s going to be less than 57-1 on Kentucky Derby Day” and cited the colt’s tactical speed as a plus in a big field.
Wonder Dean won the UAE Derby by 2 1/2 lengths to enter the list at 30-1, though Grening said he was “a little lukewarm on that race” as a form reference. Six Speed, who finished second, joins at 50-1.
Three 200-point races Saturday will reshape the final Derby picture: the Blue Grass at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita. Class President, Further Ado, and Reagan’s Honor run in the Blue Grass; Iron Honor heads to the Wood Memorial; Potente, Cherokee Nation, and Intrepido go in the Santa Anita Derby.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 9, April 1, 2026)
Horses listed with trainer and Derby odds from DRF Derby Watch:
Embed from Getty Images1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 7-2)
Last start: 1st by four lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 9-2)
Last start: 1st by nose, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T3. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 10-1)
Last start: 3rd by 1/2 length, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 99 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T3. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 10-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
5. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 12-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 97
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
6. Danon Bourbon (Manabu Ikezoe, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 1/2 lengths, Fukuryu Stakes, March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T7. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Blue Grass (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T7. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), March 21 – 94 Beyer
Best Beyer: 94
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8M
T10. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4 length, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T10. Incredibolt (Bill Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by four lengths, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T10. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by four lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T13. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 30-1)
Last start: 3rd by one length, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T13. Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 90
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T13. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, 30-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2), March 28 – N/A Beyer
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T16. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, 35-1)
Last start: 1st by ten lengths, maiden special weight, Feb. 27 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8M
T16. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, 35-1)
Last start: 1st by one length, Gotham (G3), Feb. 28 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8M
18. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 6 3/4 lengths, allowance, Feb. 19 – 96 Beyer
Best Beyer: 96
Next start: Blue Grass (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T19. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4 length, Robert B. Lewis (G3), Feb. 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8M
T19. Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2), March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
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