Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif.
Saturday’s $500,000 Santa Anita Derby – the final California prep on the road to the Kentucky Derby, offering 100 qualifying points to the winner – drew a field of seven 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, with a post time of 4:46 p.m. Pacific. The morning-line favorite is the Bob Baffert-trained No. 2 Potente at 2-1, with his stablemate No. 1 Cherokee Nation at 5-2. Both handicappers passed on the Baffert duo and came away on opposite sides of the price spectrum – Aragona topping with No. 4 Robusta at 8-1 on the morning line, Beer siding with No. 7 Intrepido at 7-2.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 4 Robusta
Embed from Getty ImagesRobusta, trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Emisael Jaramillo, enters off a runner-up finish in the San Felipe at odds of 67-1. Aragona argues he may have run the best race of anyone in that field. While Potente eventually ran him down, Aragona notes that Robusta went first in the race to contest the pace, was wide around both turns, and still held on long enough to beat a tiring field before just getting caught. He also points out that Robusta had previously beaten rival Cherokee Nation when he won his maiden. Aragona adds that if So Happy’s connections decide to rate him off the pace this time rather than match strides on the front end, Robusta could find himself on the lead. “I don’t love this horse,” Aragona said. “I just feel like he’s going to be the right kind of price. And you could make the argument that he ran the best race of anybody in the San Felipe last time.” He also flagged that the O’Neill barn has been running hot at the Santa Anita meet.
Beer’s top pick: No. 7 Intrepido
Intrepido, trained by Jeff Mullins and ridden by Hector Berrios, is a Grade 1 winner of last year’s American Pharoah Stakes who comes in off a second-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis behind Plutarch – a horse Beer noted he would have liked in this field had he been entered. Mullins opted out of the San Felipe after not loving how Intrepido was coming out of his first start of the season, a decision Beer endorses. Beer’s case is straightforward: Intrepido fits well on form, and his Lewis effort compares favorably to the San Felipe that several of these rivals are exiting. “The longer I looked at it, the more I just felt like let’s give Intrepido a chance here to fall into the right kind of a trip,” Beer said. “If he just shows up and runs his race in this spot, I think he’s competitive.”
The favorite: No. 2 Potente
Both handicappers land Potente second – and both are candid that they respect his San Felipe win while stopping short of wanting to bet him at a short price. Beer acknowledged Potente got the best trip in that race and that he still ran well taking advantage of it. Aragona noted he galloped out huge after Juan Hernandez tipped him outside Robusta in the stretch and that the distance appeared to suit him. Their shared reluctance extends to stablemate Cherokee Nation, whose 10-length maiden win produced a 100 Beyer Speed Figure – a number both handicappers acknowledged is impressive – but whose field that day was weak and whose gate manners remain a question from the rail.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 4 Robusta
No. 2 Potente
No. 7 Intrepido
No. 1 Cherokee Nation
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 7 Intrepido
No. 2 Potente
No. 1 Cherokee Nation
No. 5 So Happy
Watch for more thoughts on this race from David and Mike:
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
Put yourself in position to win big this year with DRF’s Kentucky Derby Package. Top data and trusted picks all in one place.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post 2026 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park: Picks, preview, and analysis appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment