Game: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UConn Huskies

Date: April 4th at 6:09 PM ET

Where to Watch: TBS

The stage is set for the Final Four tomorrow, and we will be witnessing some great teams down the stretch of this college basketball season. In the first game of the Final Four, we will see the Illinois Fighting Illini making their first Final Four appearance since 2005, going up against the UConn Huskies in their first Final Four since winning back-to-back national championships in 2024.

Illinois has had quite the journey to this point in the tournament, beating a couple double-digit seeds, then coming up with their biggest win of the tournament in the Sweet 16 against the Houston Cougars in a grueling defensive battle. They played a familiar Big Ten foe in the Elite 8, where they pulled away late to find themselves here. On the season, the Illini are 28-8 and went 7-8 against quad 1 opponents through the regular season and Big Ten Tournament. Through 36 games this year, Illinois is averaging 83.8 points per game (22nd in Division I), while allowing 68.7 points per game (44th in Division I).

UConn ended up winning one of the best NCAA Tournament games of all time in last-minute fashion against the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite 8. They also took care of some formidable opponents outside of Duke, beating UCLA in the Round of 32 and Michigan State in the Sweet 16. The Huskies are now 33-5 on the year, and had a 7-3 record against quad 1 opponents through the regular season and Big East Tournament. UConn is averaging 77.1 points per game (115th in Division I), while allowing 65.2 points per game (7th in Division I).

With two experienced teams and well-seasoned head coaches, we should be in for quite the battle Saturday evening.

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Betting OverviewIllinois opened this one as a 2.5-point favorite but has since moved to just 1.5-point favorites. The moneyline has seen similar movement, as Illinois went from -148 to -130, while UConn has moved from +124 to +112. The total here has moved down slightly from the opening number of 140.5 to 139.5.  

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom ratings, we see Illinois 4th with a net rating of +34.32, while UConn is 9th with a net rating of +29.20.

Illinois comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 131.7 (1st nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 97.4 (20th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 65.3 (296th nationally). The Huskies, on the other hand, have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.9 (26th nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 93.7 (9th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 64.7 (320th nationally).

Betting Trends

We actually have some recent history between these two programs. They played once earlier this season, and another time in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. UConn Huskies took care of business in both games, winning and covering the spread in each, while the under hit in both matchups.

The Illinois Fighting Illini have an ATS record of 22-14 this season, with a 6-3 record on a neutral court, an 18-11 record as a favorite, and a 10-4 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have leaned towards the under, hitting in 21 of 36 games. In games on a neutral court, the under has hit in 7 of 9. For games as a favorite, the under has hit in 16 of 29, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 11 of 14.

UConn is 16-22 ATS, with a 7-2 record on a neutral court, a 1-0 record as an underdog, and a 7-8 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have split 19 games apiece this season for UConn. In games on a neutral site, the over has hit in 5 of 9. For games as an underdog, the under hit in that lone game, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 9 of 15.

Final Thoughts

These teams stack up pretty well against each other, and UConn has had the upper hand in recent matchups. A lot of people are riding behind this Illinois team, but there’s just something about a Dan Hurley-led team that is hard to ignore.

The combination of Hurley’s experience and having a player like Alex Karaban, who has been part of UConn’s recent national championship runs, makes this group tough to beat. I have UConn winning this one outright, and I also like the under in this contest.