Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
The Kentucky Derby picture crystallized significantly on this week’s Derby Watch podcast, with five horses joining the Daily Racing Form Top 20 and five dropping off. Further Ado’s 11-length win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland moved him from 25-1 to 5-1, making him a co-second choice alongside Commandment, while Renegade holds the favorite spot at 4-1 after Daily Racing Form’s David Grening broke the news live that Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride Renegade on May 2 at Churchill Downs.
Grening breaks Irad Ortiz news mid-podcast, jockey dominoes begin to fall
Grening received a text from jockey agent Steve Rushing mid-recording and announced that Ortiz had committed to Renegade for the Kentucky Derby. Aragona, who sets the Derby Watch line, said the decision makes him feel good about the odds he had set for the top of the board. With Ortiz committed to Renegade, Brad Cox must sort out riders for his trio of contenders.
Grening identified John Velazquez as a candidate for Further Ado, given his history with owner Spendthrift Farm, and noted that Jaime Torres figures to stay with Incredibolt over stablemate Albus, both trained by Riley Mott, with Albus in need of a rider as a result. Aragona noted that whoever Ortiz chooses tends to attract bettor support, and that Renegade’s connections should expect him to go off as the favorite.
Further Ado’s Keeneland dominance raises horse-for-course question
Aragona assessed Further Ado’s Blue Grass as “such a really brilliant performance” and moved him into the top three in the early odds line. The 106 Beyer Speed Figure (published exclusively in Daily Racing Form) is the best number posted by any 3-year-old this season, but two questions will follow him to Churchill Downs: Is he a Keeneland horse-for-course, given that both dominant wins have come at that venue, and will he bounce off such a big number? Grening said “That’s going to be a question that follows Further Ado right into the Derby starting gate.”
The half-mile fractions in both his maiden win and the Blue Grass went in 47 and change – a moderate tempo that suits his stalking style – and the Kentucky Derby figures to bring a far more contested pace with a full field of 20. Reagan’s Honor never showed up in the Blue Grass, thinning the field behind the winner considerably.
Hot pace collapses in final Wood Memorial at Aqueduct
Napoleon Solo and Talkin hooked up on the lead through a sharp pace, and both capitulated in the stretch, leaving Albus to weave through traffic for the win under trainer Riley Mott. Aragona was direct about the ceiling: “His top Beyer going into the Kentucky Derby is going to be an 84, and it’s probably not going to get it done on the first Saturday.”
Right to Party closed for second and enters the Top 20 alongside Albus as new additions.
So Happy wins Santa Anita Derby, becomes Kentucky Derby story
So Happy won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and enters the Top 20 at 12-1. Trainer Mark Glatt lost his wife, Dena, earlier this year, and jockey Mike Smith, 59, continues to draw top mounts.
Grening noted the California group may not be demonstrably stronger than the Wood Memorial field. Potente ran a clear second for Bob Baffert and holds at 15-1 on the Derby Watch line.
Class President out, bubble deepens
Todd Pletcher scratched Class President from the Blue Grass after not liking the way he was moving Thursday morning at Keeneland. Grening put his Kentucky Derby chances at “almost 0 percent.”
Cherokee Nation disappointed in the Santa Anita Derby, and Intrepido is expected to regroup pointing toward Del Mar.
Lexington closes Road to the Kentucky Derby points schedule
The Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland is the final race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points schedule, awarding points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers – far smaller than the 200-point preps that concluded last weekend.
No horse in the field can reach the projected cutoff for the Derby even with a win. Confessional enters with 15 points and could reach 35 with a victory, which falls short of what is needed to crack the field. Grening said trainer Brad Cox is more interested in using the race as a Preakness springboard than a Derby qualifier.
Aragona identified Corona de Oro and Enforced Agenda as handicapping interests in the race.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 10, April 8, 2026)
Horses listed with trainer and Derby odds from DRF Derby Watch:
Embed from Getty Images1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 4-1)
Last start: 1st by 4 lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 5-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Florida Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T2. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 5-1)
Last start: 1st by 11 lengths, Blue Grass (G1)
Best Beyer: 106
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
4. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Florida Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
5. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 10-1)
Last start: 3rd by half-length, Florida Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
6. So Happy (Mark Glatt, 12-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 3/4 lengths, Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T7. Danon Bourbon (Manabu Ikezoe, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 1/2 lengths, Fukuryu Stakes
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T7. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 97
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 15-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 3/4 lengths, Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T10. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)
Best Beyer: 94
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T10. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 4 lengths, Virginia Derby
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
13. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by 4 lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1)
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T14. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 3rd by 1 length, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T14. Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, 35-1)
Last start: 2nd by head, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 90
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T16. Albus (Riley Mott, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 1 1/4 lengths, Wood Memorial (G2)
Best Beyer: 84
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T16. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T18. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, 50-1)
Last start: 5th by 11 1/2 lengths, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: 92
Next start: To be determined
T18. Ottinho (Chad Brown, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 11 lengths, Blue Grass (G1)
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: To be determined
T18. Right to Party (Kenny McPeek, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 1 1/4 lengths, Wood Memorial (G2)
Best Beyer: 81
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T18. Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2)
Best Beyer: N/A
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
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