Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, April 10 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Light Won Up (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Light Won Up
2. Cy Fair
3. Snow Face Princess
Granted, LIGHT WON UP did get through after jockey chose not to go wide into the stretch of the Feb. 7 Sweet Life, but to say she made the most of a favorable trip might still be saying too little. Whoosh! Huge turn of foot to the eighth pole, and the race was over well before the wire. Been waiting for her to run back ever since. Workout video does nothing to discourage favorable opinion, and while she flopped at CD last year, at least she’s already done some shipping. I like CY FAIR enough that I took her to win the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, and she obviously was a very, very good 2yo. Can she retain that edge into her 3yo season? Quite possibly, but the price in this deep, tough field probably won’t be right. Combines tactical pace with a sweet turn of foot. Only horse to beat Cy Fair in four starts last year was SNOW FACE PRINCESS, and she wasn’t nearly at her best when capping the 2yo campaign (after being sold for $775K) at KD. Managed second there without showing the spark she had earlier in the year. Can’t tell much from the one workout video, March 29 at CD, but she appeared to be going well enough. Bunch of other really talented fillies, too – best renewal of this race I can recall.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Midnight Pranks
2. Curahee
3. Track Ranger
10-1 on MIDNIGHT PRANKS? I can’t see it. He’s established at this open $25K claiming class and in his second start since being haltered by an aggressive claiming outfit he’s entered for a tag higher than the price these connections paid. Was the only one closing in that March 7 FG heat, zipping his last furlong in 12.08. And for a 6yo claimer with 27 starts, I’d call workout video of his April 1 KEE drill quite encouraging. CURAHEE – he’s not established at this open $25K claiming level. All his claiming starts came in conditioned races. Moreover, he’s hardly established as a dirt horse and not established at all as a one-turn dirt horse – only dirt sprint came in his career debut, a mild fifth. No match last time for his class-dropping favored stable-mate in a two-turn FG contest. Not saying he can’t / won’t win, but am saying the 6-5 morning line would not hold any appeal. No idea why TRACK RANGER ended up at Delta in his lone start after the Jacobson claim. Freshened and entered for $9K more than the claiming price paid.
Second Race
1. Nash Potatoes
2. Props
3. Twenty Two Black
Some sneakily competitive form for NASH POTATOES. First, he’s never run for a claiming price this low, and second, he doesn’t seem to care at all for Turfway Tapeta, where he made his last three starts. Beaten more than 11 lengths last fall in a KEE $50K maiden-claimer, but a blowout winner accounts for nearly all that margin. Same thing in the $50K maiden last fall at CD – another runaway winner. NP could in fact win this merely producing either one of those races – and he won’t be bet that way. Toss the last-start two-turn try and PROPS fits well enough here. May be mere coincidence but has hit a new level – sprinting, at least – since addition of Lasix. Lowest level yet and looks well meant off a freshening. TWENTY TWO BLACK’s best race came around two turns, and I doubt he has much of an edge on the top two as well as MANDY’S MAN CAN while offering less value than any of the others.
Third Race
1. Third Coast
2. Touch of Fire
3. McCready
If you’re thinking THIRD COAST’s 62 Beyer is too low to contend here, realize that the runner up behind him came back to win a straight maiden turf route at Gulfstream with a 73 Beyer; the third horse won a straight maiden Tapeta route (albeit with another modest fig) at GP; and the fifth horse returned to win a TAM straight maiden turf route with a 79 Beyer. Visually, Third Coast’s race was impressive enough, and I’m guessing the figure doesn’t properly rate him. Black Hornet returned with a decent showing in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but TOUCH OF FIRE had the best of things pace-wise in the Black Gold and Black Hornet still mowed him down. For whatever reason I didn’t really trust his debut score going into the Black Gold – and I still don’t trust it. The figures in this race might over-rate the horse. MCCREADY needs scratches to draw in, and will have a poor post if he does, but I could make the case that he was the best horse in the Black Gold. Just a terrible trip start to finish. Granted, he makes some of his own trouble, but that wasn’t all his fault.
Fourth Race
1. Profound
2. Maximum Promise
3. Sound Cause
PROFOUND has worked a couple times recently with no less than Makers Mark starter Rhetorical, holding his own in the one such drill for which we have video. Was inside modest once-started maiden Pass and Go in the April 4 KEE drill, and thought he traveled nicely through that one, too. If nothing else, these workouts suggest a horse only raced on turf and synthetic who gets over dirt without any issue. Just hope he doesn’t fall too far out of things coming off the 1 1/2-mile turf race. MAXIMUM PROMISE really has never come close to winning since his second-start Ellis Park maiden romp two summers ago. Class relief on the one hand, sure, but wonder how willing this horse will be to press that advantage. Since he’s 8-5 on the morning line, it could be worth trying to pole holes. SOUND CAUSE limited dirt starts and even less positional pace. Owner-trainer “got out” on the $50K claim with that Turfway MSW victory, yet still values the horse enough to hold firm for $40K off the freshening.
Fifth Race
1. Daisy Flyer
2. Onemoredance
3. Lady Ilze
DAISY FLYER after a very nice comeback score in the Lake George either bounced or didn’t take to the Kentucky Downs surface in her next race, and while she might merely have been in too tough facing G1 3yos in the QE II, I don’t think she was quite back to her best there, either. In any case – class drop to start her 4yo season. We’ve got workout video from Florida and Kentucky, and I found it very encouraging. Finished with a great deal of interest in the recent KEE turf move. Less video for ONEMOREDANCE, though in a work with two other horses, she held her own when Expensive Queen – who runs Saturday in the G1 Jenny Wiley — ranged up on the outside. Came a long, long way through a busy 2025 season – no surprise if she improves further for trainer B Walsh. The German 1000 Guineas isn’t exactly the English 1000 Guineas, but LADY ILZE did win it, and facing older rivals in the G1 Falmouth she was beaten only a little more than four lengths. Faced older again and didn’t have the best of luck at Kentucky Downs in lone start since coming overseas. She also appears to be going well enough in the morning – but lousy draw here in post 12.
Embed from Getty ImagesSixth Race
1. Torre Eiffel
2. Culper Code
3. Great Moment
Tough race. Don’t love TORRE EIFFEL, but the two dirt races were better than the more recent synthetic start. Finished off his second-start route like a horse who’d prefer a longer one-turn race – like this. While the fast drill April 1 wasn’t quite as flashy on video as the time suggests, it seemed like a solid enough drill, and this is far from the strongest KEE MSW. One workout video (other than a stray drill from last September) for firster CULPER CODE – clocked a quick half-mile from gate March 12 at OP and the visual matched up with the time. Blinkers back on last time helped GREAT MOMENT? Or that figure at FG overrates his performance?
Eighth Race
1. She’s a Gemma
2. Chatter
3. Cut to the Chase
SHE’S A GEMMA is strictly a sprinter? How else to interpret her form – strong sprints bookending her four-race career, much weaker miles between them. Merely running back to the Oaklawn romp in her last-start comeback probably would suffice – and workout video from March 22 at Payson suggests she might run even better. CHATTER ran into a stakes horse two back – her first race for trainer S Joseph – and a horse who appears to be stakes-quality in her most recent out. Her problem here – she’s a major pace player in a race that drew other similar types, horses like CUT TO THE CHASE. Hard to see how CTTC doesn’t go for the front since she led in all three of her races. Typically inscrutable W Ward drills at KEE. Romped over the local surface last fall but hard to see her shaking loose here like she did there.
Ninth Race
1. Notable Speech
2. Rhetorical
3. Zulu Kingdom
You don’t need me to extoll the virtues of NOTABLE SPEECH, who ended his 4-year-old season clearly best in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He’s just a world-class miler – one still relatively lightly raced who improved through the second part of his 2025 campaign after a slow start to the season – slow, especially, considering he won the Guineas and the St. James’s Palace at age 3. Master of the Seas romped in the 2024 Maker’s Mark for these connections; Modern Games lost at a short price in 2023. I definitely see Notable Speech more in the Master of the Seas zone, though while Master of the Seas was by his MM Mile an exposed horse, this guy still can get better during 2026. Still wonder if RHETORICAL didn’t go to the front a little too soon in the BC Mile, where he couldn’t sufficiently quicken, still a good fourth. That came after strong improvement summer into fall – no surprise if his form had leveled off by November. A 5yo but very lightly raced – could still get better – in fact could get better on this day and still not win. ZULU KINGDOM away since August but on a longer, steadier work pattern than the other G1 long layoff horse, DETERMINISTIC. Zulu’s speed figures don’t line up with his form – I think he’s better than the numbers, but this is a huge ask.
Tenth Race
1. Mr American Pie
2. Swaging
3. Chappelle
MR AMERICAN PIE debuted on Turfway Tapeta – and might not have liked it. Looked like he went much better than that in dirt workout video – in fact, I was impressed with a recent local drill. Obviously needs an alert break from the fence, but if he gets out of the gate, think he can contend at a square price. SWAGING nipped CHAPPELLE when they met Jan. 24 at FG: Swaging ran back and got his “bounce” out of the way, while Chappelle didn’t run back but missed five weeks of works. Give the edge between them to Swaging, who figures to return to a front-end trip after the flat performance last out.
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