Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs Play-in Round

Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs Play-in Round

Long-time readers know that we’re not big fans of the NBA regular season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but love playoff basketball. We truly believe the regular season is unbeatable (especially for our “dog-or-pass” approach) with all the tanking going on, and then you have to re-handicap games all the time with all the load management games (and that’s if you even get the news in time). Except for some occasional swagger/anti-swagger spot plays, I’ve mostly avoided pro basketball the past six months and concentrated on college and pro football and college basketball. However, the NBA Playoffs mean all those tanking teams are on the sidelines and we know the actual load management is for legitimate injuries that are easy to monitor.

Regular readers might also remember last year when I skipped the play-in games, but that was a mistake as underdogs went 3-1 ATS in the Tuesday/Wednesday games, so we’re jumping right in this week (and actually like all four dogs in the opening games, some than others) leading into the first-round series that start his weekend (programing note: I’ll post my takes column on that round by Friday, including my plans for the four teams coming out of this play-in tourney).

Miami Heat (+5.5) at Charlotte Hornets

A lot of people got on the Charlotte bandwagon back in January when the Hornets turned around their season with a nine-game winning streak. It was clear to many that this team was a cut above the also-rans as they ended up No. 5 on offense in the whole association and No. 8 in point differential, which are numbers you’d expect from higher-seeded teams that don’t have to get through the play-in tourney.

And it appears bettors are lining up to back them here in Tuesday night’s opener as 63% of the early bets and 86% of the money has been on them at DraftKings, according to VSiN’s Betting Splits Page as of Monday afternoon. 

However, I’ll be contrarian here and point out that the Hornets only won one more game than the Heat (enough to get home court, but I don’t think that warrants them being favored by 5.5 points). Besides, everyone seems to be forgetting that the Heat went 3-1 in the season series, so I’m not so sure the right team is favored. Granted, two of those wins were at home before the Hornets’ second-half rally, but even though the Hornets won in a 136-106 home rout in the last meeting on March 17, the Heat upset the Hornets 128-120 as 7.5-point road dogs on March 6 when Charlotte was on another 6-game win steak and playing well.

NBA Playoffs Best Bet: Miami Heat +5.5

Portland Trail Blazers (+3.5) at Phoenix Suns

I don’t like this dog as much as the Heat, but still believe the Blazers are the right side in this No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup to get the No. 7 seed and face the Spurs instead of having to play in Friday’s game to earn the right to get routed by the Thunder.
The Blazers basically won their first play-in game on Sunday as they beat the Kings 122-110 (though failed to cover as 17.5-point chalk) to earn this spot and relegate the Clippers to the 9-10 game and tougher path to the main playoff field.
The Suns did win the season series 2-1, so that’s why I’m not as high on this play, though the last meeting was back in February and Portland is 14-10 since that game while Phoenix is 12-12, so I still say the line should be closer to pick-’em even with the Suns having home court, plus the Blazers’ win was in the Feb. 22 game in Phoenix. 

NBA Playoffs Best Bet: Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 (more of a lean)

Orlando Magic (+2) at Philadelphia 76ers

Here’s another case where I’m not sure the right team is favored. I guess oddsmakers had to give the nod to the 76ers with home court and going 2-1 against the Magic during the regular season.

Both teams have had to overcome a lot of injuries (and in the case of Paul George, a 25-game suspension for a banned substance) that have led them to this spot in the play-in tourney, The 76ers aren’t the same contender without Joel Embiid (out for the play-in tourney after emergency appendectomy last week), so the Magic have gotten healthier and catch the 76ers at the right time. Even though George is back, the 76ers’ other top player, Tyrese Maxey, is less than 100 percent and playing through a finger injury.

In-game note: if the 2 points aren’t enough for you with the Magic, we might consider waiting for an in-game bet. The Magic tied for the league lead with 18 wins after trailing by 10 or more points, so there might be a point to jump in with them if they fall behind early and get more points or a juicy money line.

NBA Playoffs Best Bet: Orlando Magic +2

Golden State Warriors (+5) at Los Angeles Clippers

It feels weird seeing these recent star-filled teams battling in the No. 9-10 game and the winner needing another win on Friday to even officially make the playoff field, but both are mediocre teams pretty much in rebuild mode.
Which future Hall of Famer will step up to get this win: Steph Curry or Kawhi Leonard?

Now, I know the Clippers won the season series 3-1 with the Warriors’ only win coming way back in October, so LA has won three straight. However, these teams met on Sunday in the regular-season finale and the Clippers wanting to win to hopefully get the No. 8 seed (which they didn’t anyway when the Blazers also won). The Warriors didn’t have anything to play for in that game, yet only lost 115-110 to push as 5-point underdogs. I’ll take the 5 points again with them having more motivation here.

NBA Playoffs Best Bet: Golden State Warriors +5 (more of a lean)

We obviously don’t have the matchups or lines for Friday’s do-or-die games for the No. 8 seed in each conference, but everything I wrote above still applies.

In the East, if the Heat upset the Hornets as I hope, I’ll again plan to take Miami plus the points against the Magic-76ers loser. However, if the Hornets beat the Heat (though I’ll hope to at least cover), I’d look to fade them again with the Magic-76ers loser, especially since the Hornets were favored at home against both teams in their last regular-season meetings and I wouldn’t be surprised if the market made them a road fave with a lot of bettors still on the bandwagon.

In the West, the Warriors-Clippers survivor will be the play plus the points vs. the Blazers-Suns loser.

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