It will be a busy evening on the MLB slate with the first game at 6:35 p.m. ET and the last game at 10:10 p.m. ET, making for a pretty condensed set of matchups. There are some very significant weather concerns, so we might not get all 15 games, as there’s severe weather possible in a lot of areas, including the Midwest and East Coast. Baseball-related or not, stay alert if you live in any of the impacted areas. It could be a historic weather day in some states.
On a much lighter note, 24 pitchers will be making their fourth starts of the season tonight if their games get played. Like I mentioned yesterday, we’re seeing more sample size. That said, it didn’t seem to help last night, as a total of 144 runs were scored across yesterday’s 10 games. Three games got into the 20s and another had 19 runs, as the league collectively hit .293/.367/.498 with a .384 wOBA and 37 home runs. Might be an outlier. Might be something about more 2026 baseballs in play now that a majority of the 2025s have probably been fouled off or taken out of play. Time will tell. Warmer, more humid weather was undoubtedly a factor, but that’s a huge offensive day to say the least.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are available to everybody now, but will soon be for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 14:
Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles (-168, 9)
Embed from Getty Images6:35 p.m. ET
The first game of the night brings my first wager of the night. Merrill Kelly returns for Arizona and Baltimore will send out Trevor Rogers as this series continues at Camden Yards. This was a 9-7 slugfest last night, so we’ll see if this one follows suit or not. Rogers has a 1.89 ERA with a 2.43 xERA and a 2.66 FIP, but does have a 4.30 xFIP because he hasn’t allowed a home run yet and only has 14 strikeouts out of 76 batters. There are some regression signs there and we’ll see if the Snakes deliver them.
My angle on this game, though, features Kelly, who is making his first MLB start of the season. He was limited to 6.1 MLB innings in camp as he was a member of Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and started the season on the IL with a back injury. The 37-year-old made one start in Triple-A and threw five shutout innings, but only struck out two of the 20 batters that he faced.
Kelly threw 72 pitches, with 40 strikes and 32 balls, which is hardly the ratio that you want to see. He only had a 35% F-Strike% and a 23.3% Chase Rate. The Orioles are a tough assignment right out of the gate, as they’ve slashed .249/.336/.399 with a 113 wRC+ on the season, including a .245/.329/.400 slash against RHP. They are banged up right now, with Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and several others on the IL. Still, the O’s are a team equipped to deal with position player injuries better than most and they’re still fielding a pretty good lineup.
Kelly’s Strikeouts prop sits at 4.5 with a nice plus-money price on the Under. It’ll be warm with the wind blowing out and there’s the possibility for a rain delay as well. If nothing else, Kelly isn’t very stretched out and the Diamondbacks probably won’t put the wily vet at too much risk in the early going. (I lean Over 8.5 here as well on a warm night with Rogers’ HR regression as a factor)
Pick: Merrill Kelly (ARI) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+117)
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-118, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
Every team in the AL began the week with at least seven losses in the early going, as nobody has really found a stride just yet. It seems like the Tigers might be starting to find theirs. They’ve won three in a row after a 4-9 start and sit +10 in run differential, so they’ve played better than their record would indicate. In the series lid lifter here, we get an excellent pitching matchup between Cole Ragans and Framber Valdez.
Ragans left his last start after a comebacker to the thumb, a walk, and a three-run double. Ragans said after the game that he felt the best he had felt in a long time and struck out Cleveland’s first two hitters – Steven Kwan and Angel Martinez – looking. Then the line drive back up the box came and he only faced five batters. Maybe it’s true, as he threw six shutout innings against the Twins in his second start and was looking to follow that up.
Still, Ragans is down about a full mph on his four-seam fastball, which could change as the weather warms up, but it looks like he’s trying to find his arm slot with his arm angle up on his pitches across the board. That probably does mean that he’s healthier than he was last season, as it looks more like his spectacular 2024 season, but it still might take some time.
Valdez is off to a rough start himself, as he got bombarded by the Twins last time out with eight runs allowed on 10 hits. He only struck out two of the 29 batters that he faced, as Minnesota didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch in the zone. That said, Valdez only allowed a 29.2% Hard Hit% and didn’t allow a single Barrel, so it was death by papercuts more than anything else. Yes, he didn’t locate well and didn’t get Whiffs, which has been a problem on the whole for him moving to a new team. But, he’s still a ground ball merchant and should see some better returns moving forward.
Frankly, this is more of a play on Detroit’s offense over Kansas City’s. The Tigers have scored 16 more runs than the Royals and have also allowed fewer runs. Neither offense has been great against lefties, as the Tigers have a .298 wOBA and an 89 wRC+, but the Royals have a .278 wOBA and a 72 wRC+ in that split. On the whole, KC is 23rd in wRC+ and Detroit is 12th.
I like both bullpens and they’re both rested, but the Tigers definitely boast the better offense and that’s enough for me to play this one.
Pick: Tigers -118
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-115, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
We head to Cincinnati where the Giants and Reds begin a weekday set at Great American Ball Park. The weather conditions should be good for offense throughout the week, as it has warmed up in the Midwest and Great Lakes and this is a park where the ball typically carries well.
Robbie Ray gets the nod for the visitors here, as he enters with a 2.08 ERA, 3.54 xERA, and a 3.65 FIP in his 17.1 innings of work. This will be his first road start of the season after home outings against the Phillies, Mets, and Yankees. Oracle Park is definitely a far more forgiving venue, but we can all agree that facing the Reds is a massive step down in class from those three lineups.
Ray had a lower ERA on the road compared to at home last season. He did allow 14 of his 22 homers and his SLG on the road was 30 points higher, but his wOBA against was just .004 higher and his 3.61 ERA with a 25.5% K% away from San Fran was impressive. He did have a 4.37 FIP, so I guess we could point towards the possibility of regression, but the Reds are one of the worst lineups in baseball so far. They are extremely fortunate to be 9-7 with their -16 run differential.
It has been ugly so far for Brady Singer. Singer has allowed a 64.3% Hard Hit% and an 11.9% Barrel%. As mostly a 2.5-pitch pitcher, a drop in velo on the sinker is a big deal for Singer, as he’s throwing that 53.4% of the time with basically no success, as opposing batters own a .385 BA with a .692 SLG. Singer also hasn’t spotted the slider well, which is down a little in spin rate and his sweeper also has a lower spin rate. It’s entirely possible that he’s not healthy and, honestly, the skills have probably been in decline for a while. His arm angle has progressively dropped since 2021 and his percentile ranking in velocity keeps going down.
Singer’s best start this season came in Texas, where he allowed two runs on six hits over five innings. He also allowed an average exit velocity over 100 mph. That’s a park that suppresses BABIP well and Singer’s performance would have probably looked much worse in another venue.
I still don’t believe in this Reds bullpen, which has a 4.03 ERA, but a 5.13 xERA. The Giants have a 4.28 ERA, but a 4.11 xERA and a lower FIP by a good margin. The Reds are only batting .212/.286/.384 against lefties thus far. Ray has a higher ceiling than Singer. I know it’s been a tough start for the Giants with a lot of finger-pointing and questions about first-year skipper Tony Vitello, but his team has a lot of advantages here for me.
Pick: Giants -105
Cleveland Guardians (-120, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET
Slowly, but surely, the Guardians have put together a competent offense. With Chase DeLauter’s emergence, a heat wave from Angel Martinez, and better contact authority across the board, Cleveland just might be finding some internal answers to all of the offensive questions that they’ve had.
Then there’s the Cardinals, who are basically being carried right now by Jordan Walker. We’ll see if Walker can stay hot against tonight’s Cleveland starter, Joey Cantillo, who has been excellent so far with a 2.45 ERA, 2.43 xERA, and a 1.89 FIP. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season and has struck out 20 of the 60 batters that he has faced. Cantillo has only allowed a 27.3% Hard Hit% as he’s a very tough lefty to hit with a deep arsenal and a little bit of a velocity uptick into the 92-93 range.
The Hawaii-born southpaw only has a 14th percentile Chase Rate and 14th percentile fastball velo, yet he ranks in the 88th percentile in K%. He ranks in the 96th percentile in Extension and that’s an area that the Guardians have focused on a lot in recent years and have found a lot of success with their starting pitchers. Cantillo throws from a high arm slot with a big, loopy curveball and has an improved slider this season. He’s a really hard profile to pick up facing him for the first time and many of these Cardinals hitters will be.
Meanwhile, there aren’t many surprises for a guy like Michael McGreevy, who has a 2.16 ERA in three starts this season, but a 5.79 xERA. Maybe it’s kismet that Cleveland’s area code is 216 with that ERA ripe for regression for McGreevy. He has only allowed one homer, but his .204 BABIP and 77.6% LOB% are both areas of concern for a guy whose stuff is not overpowering at all. McGreevy has already allowed six Barrels and has just a 16.1% K%, hence the high xERA.
His fastball velo is actually down quite a bit from where it was last season, which may be about the cold start to the season, but his xBA on his four-seamer is .287 and his actual BA sits at .143. His SLG also sits at .143, but his xSLG is .529. He’s been given credit for seven different pitch types this season, which is an extremely deep arsenal, especially since he throws six of them 9% of the time or more, but Cleveland leads the league in pitches per plate appearance this season and it seems like they’ll be able to foul off tough pitches and not chase others.
Given how he just returned from the IL, I don’t think Hunter Gaddis will be used again by Stephen Vogt after throwing 21 pitches through an ugly inning yesterday. That means Cleveland’s top arms should all be available today and the lesser one(s) should be out of commission. Cleveland was able to add on against a poor Cardinals pen yesterday and that could happen again today.
Pick: Guardians -120
Texas Rangers (-120, 9) at Sacramento Athletics
9:40 p.m. ET
Let’s end with a late game and an underdog, as the Rangers and A’s battle it out again tonight. It will be a matchup of southpaws, as MacKenzie Gore goes for Texas and Jeffrey Springs goes for the Sactown dwellers.
Both guys have been magnificent this season. Springs has allowed three runs on eight hits in 18.1 innings of work and is living up to what the A’s thought they were getting when they took a gamble on him and his health profile in a trade from the Rays. He’s struck out 15 and walked six while drawing three tough assignments in the Blue Jays, Astros, and Yankees. While Houston stinks this season, they are very right-handed-heavy and that was a good test for Springs and his changeup. He aced that exam with six innings of one-run ball and seven punchies.
Springs held the Yankees lineup without a Barrel last time out at Yankee Stadium, which is an impossibly hard task. In fact, he’s only allowed a 29.8% Hard Hit% on the whole and New York only had a 29.4% HH% in 17 batted ball events. His command has been incredible and his SwStr% has risen with each passing start.
Small sample size alert and such, but the Rangers are batting just .194/.239/.299 with a .245 wOBA and a 54 wRC+ against LHP over 142 PA thus far. That’s the sixth-fewest PA in that split, but they have a 34.5% K% against southpaws.
The A’s aren’t performing any better against lefties with a .190/.242/.313 slash and a 28.5% K%, so this should be a good opportunity for Gore on paper. But, pitching in Sacramento has not been fun for a lot of visiting arms. It’s not going to be extremely warm or anything tonight, but Gore is now in a great park for suppressing power and BABIP. His first start came in Philly on a chilly day and his other two starts have been at home against the Reds and Mariners.
Gore allowed a 98.2 mph average exit velo to the Mariners last time out and they only had one hit. That said, he did strike out nine of the 17 batters that he faced, but his home park is very, very forgiving and this one is not.
Getting blown out may have been a blessing in disguise yesterday for the A’s, as their bullpen needed a day to reset and low-leverage arms Jack Perkins and Luis Medina mopped up. That means that their better arms should be ready to go if they have a lead to protect or a close game to navigate. As such, I’ll take a shot here, even if the A’s lineup projects a bit worse against lefties without Brent Rooker.
Pick: Athletics +100
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