UFC Winnipeg Predictions:

The UFC travels to Winnipeg, Alberta, for this week’s Fight Night event. This fight card is populated with 13 scheduled battles, three of which will be held at welterweight (170 pounds) and above. 

Canadian fight fans are rabid, fanatical, and loud. They will show up in force and with raucous support for the local Canadian athletes, nine in total, all facing adversaries from outside the country and many with ‘favorable’ matchups. 

Seven fighters on this slate are over 35 years of age, as well. There are six bouts in which the youth advantage is six years or greater, which gives the younger athlete an advantage.

Favorites went 6-4-1 last week, and on the year they stand 96-37-3 or 70.5%. 

Last week’s release of MarQuel Mederos +160 was originally scored as a majority decision loss. Sometime later, that decision was overturned by the UFC, based on reading the scores incorrectly to a majority decision DRAW, which negated any loss we would have taken on Mederos had the original decision stood. 

My two cents: The majority decision draw was incorrect, but I don’t judge these fights, I just grade them! 

Digital results to date stand: 7-7-1 -.60u

Mike Malott -350 vs. Gilbert Burns +300 

Welterweight (170 pounds) main event

Burns, now 39, has been an elite world-class competitor in the UFC between two divisions since 2012. 

A third-degree black belt in BJJ, Burns has tremendous mental toughness and deep cardio, and, despite being a touch undersized for welterweight, his durability and chin have held up over time. 

In this matchup, Burns, who will be 40 in July, will be five years older, a few inches shorter, and will be giving away two inches of reach advantage in this fight—all physical disadvantages.

Burns enters this important fight on the heels of a four-fight losing streak, but against the elite of the division. While Burns has competed against a far greater set of mixed martial arts adversaries than Malott has, he has also not tasted victory in more than three years.

Where Burns can excel in this fight is with his conditioning and BJJ, for we have witnessed his opponent struggle with cardio and against a top grappler in Neil Magny, in the same fight! 

Canadian fighter Malott, also a black belt in BJJ, arrives at this main event as the figurehead of Canadian MMA. 

Malott, who makes his first appearance in a five-round main event, is strong, well-versed in mixed martial arts weaponry, and durable. He arrives with the momentum of winning his last three battles, the last two against pedigreed and founded mixed martial arts competition. 

Malott possesses decent finishing power, but more from volume than from a one-blow KO. He is quite well-rounded, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that these two even grapple and roll a little in this fight.

Both men will try to control the middle of the octagon, which will create great opportunities for striking exchanges. Malott will own advantage in the stand-up but must regulate his energy in his first five-round affair. 

For Burns, his durability and his drive to force Malott into the deep waters of a five-round fight are certain to be the foundation of his fight plan. 

Malott’s youth, height, reach, size, and the fact that he fights in front of his brethren Canadians surely present him as a worthy favorite. However, it is difficult to agree with the price tag on Malott of -350 (down from a recent -500), especially considering that Burns’ greatest asset may be his cardio and experience in five-round battles.

Burns depth of experience in main event competition is one aspect of this fight that may provide him great advantage, provided he can navigate this fight past 15 minutes. The gap in mixed martial arts prowess between these two is not as great as this -350 price suggests. Malott faces a do-or-die fight in his career, and Burns is fighting for his UFC relevance. 

We’ll get tremendous focus and ferocity from each man in this war!. 

End of the day, Burns’ battle plan must be to get this fight into the fourth round. There, Burns will have comfort where Malott, a guy who has shown that his energy can wane later in fights, will find himself in the first fourth round of his UFC career.

Burns is absolutely not out of this fight, but betting undersized fighters competing up in division against a hometown favorite is one difficult spot to try a forty-year-old underdog.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -145. 

Mandel Nallo -175 vs. Jai Herbert +150 

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Lightweight (155 pounds)

Here we have a leading athlete from the TriStar gym in Montreal, Nallo, making his UFC debut at 36. Nallo is 14-3 in his professional career.

For this UFC Canadian event, he earns a main-card billing simply because this mature athlete is a pure finisher. He’s a team leader and recognized talent at TriStar, a world-renowned gym, and the UFC needed another capable Canadian athlete to highlight on this card.

Nallo gets the call because of his strong standing/history at Tristar. On top of that, the UFC handpicked a dance mate for Nallo who should present him with the opportunity to both keep his finishing streak alive, but also put the raucous Canadian crowd into a frenzy with his power.

At the other corner of the octagon stands 37-year-old Jai Herbert, who ships in from England. Herbert is best known for dumping Ilia Topuria on his pants in a 2022 loss. 

Since then, Herbert, who is a year older and an inch taller, with a two-inch reach advantage over Nallo in this fight, has gone 2-2-1 in the UFC with wins against lower rung talent in the division. 

The UFC crafted this fight matchup to give Nallo a golden opportunity to shine in front of his Canadian brethren against an aging journeyman who must travel to Canada to compete. 

Nallo is on this card for several reasons, but the most important one is to provide ‘Les Habitants’ in attendance with a rousing victory!

UFC Winnipeg Best Bet: Mandel Nallo -175

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -155

Strong lean over

Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops on GambLou.com and across all podcast platforms. Obtain all my final UFC Winnipeg releases there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!

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